TYPHOON PARMA [PEPENG/19W/0917]

PARMA (PEPENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 125 kph
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr

TYPHOON PARMA [PEPENG/19W/0917]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 022
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT)
Sun 04 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #027
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Typhoon PARMA (PEPENG) drifting NNE slowly...may stall in the coming hours...Stormy weather to continue overnight across NW Luzon particularly Ilocos Provinces.

*Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon, Southern China & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of PARMA.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: PARMA is expected to move very slowly or quasi-stationary west of Balintang Channel - and track erratically as it is in an area of weak steering flow from the High Pressure Area to its NE. The 3 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast has changed, showing most computer models & various asian weather agencies, taking PARMA into this new forecast track - which is a turn WSW into the South China Sea in the coming 3 to 5 days. *Alternate Forecast Scenario: There's also a possibility that PARMA and MELOR shall be both into Direct Cyclone Interaction (DCI) (aka. Fujiwhara Effect)...where MELOR recurves to the NE and PARMA follows suit. This scenaro is the least possible forecast route at this time.

+ Effects: PARMA's main circulation has slightly moved offshore...Its core (eye & eyewall) is now about 100km. from the coast of Ilocos Norte...Stormy conditions w/ winds not exceeding 100 kph can still be expected along Ilocos Norte...while its inner (rain) bands spreading across Ilocos Sur, Abra, Kalinga, Apayao, Calayan Island Group, and Western Cagayan - where stormy conditions w/ winds not exceeding 75 kph can be expected tonight until tomorrow. Central Luzon and rest of Northern Luzon will remain under PARMA's outer (feeder) bands), where light to moderate rains w/ winds not exceeding 60 kph can be expected today. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 100 up to 200 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along PARMA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 400 mm (very heavy rain) near the center of PARMA. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Extreme Northwestern Luzon. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

(1) Super Typhoon MELOR (20W) accelerating fast away from Northern Marianas...may enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow. Click here to view latest T2K advisory.

Kindly click the cool T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued every afternoon, and shows various tropical systems roaming across the South China Sea and the Western Pacific Ocean.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Sun October 04 2009
Location of Eye: 19.6� N Lat 120.2� E Lon
Distance 1: 140 km (75 nm) WNW of Calayan Island
Distance 2: 160 km (85 nm) NNW of Laoag City
Distance 3: 205 km (110 nm) WSW of Basco, Batanes
Distance 4: 225 km (122 nm) North of Vigan City
Distance 5: 335 km (180 nm) South of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 120 kph (65 kts) near the eye
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (80 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 4-5 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: NNE @ 07 kph (04 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: South China Sea
Size (in Diameter): 815 km (440 nm) / Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 28 ft (8.5 m)
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 06 GMT Sun Oct 04
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 5 PM Sun Oct 04
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
EORC-JAXA TRMM Viewer: Real-Time Rainrate Image new!
NASA-JAXA TMI Viewer: Latest Rainrate Image
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNAL # THREE (3) click to know meaning
In Effect: BATANES-CALAYAN-BABUYAN ISLANDS, NORTHERN CAGAYAN, ILOCOS NORTE, & APAYAO.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2) click to know meaning
In Effect: ILOCOS SUR, ABRA, KALINGA, & REST OF CAGAYAN.

The above areas will experience stormy weather tonight (with winds not exceeding 100 kph for #02 and more than 100 kph for #03).

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning
Now In Effect: LA UNION, BENGUET, MT. PROVINCE, & NORTHERN ISABELA.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph tonight. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 3, 2 & 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides.