Tropical Storm Mirinae hits Saipan, now fastly heading towars Luzon

23W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM 23W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 004
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT)
Tue 27 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / NWS-GUAM DOPPLER RADAR FIX
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Tropical Storm 23W (UNNAMED) continues to organize as it moves away from Northern Marianas.

*Residents and visitors along the eastern coasts of Luzon & Visayas (Philippines) should closely monitor the progress of 23W (UNNAMED).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: 23W is expected to continue tracking WNW within the next 1-2 days. It will reach Typhoon intensity tomorrow evening. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system entering the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on a Westerly track on Thursday morning Oct 29...will be approaching the eastern coast of Luzon on Saturday morning, Oct 31 as a Category 4 Typhoon (215 kph) more or less 200 km. North of Camarines Sur...making landfall near Baler, Aurora on Saturday evening - crossing Central Luzon via Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Pampanga and Zambales during the night. It will exit the South China Sea on All Saint's Day, November 01. *Alternate Forecast Scenario (AFS): The latest ECMWF Extended Forecast issued at 8PM last night, showed the system passing very close to Camarines Norte, passing over Polillo Island and traversing Northern Quezon, Rizal and Metro Manila beginning Saturday evening until Sunday morning (Oct 30-Nov 01). This AFS track may happen if the High Pressure Steering Ridge off SE China and Taiwan strengthens more. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

+ Effects: 23W's developing circulation continues to consolidate and improve. Its rainbands has started to move out of the Marianas...improving weather conditions expected beginning tonight...Gale-force winds w/ light, moderate to heavy rains can still be expected across these islands troughout the day. 12 to 18-hr total rainfall amounts of 2 to 25 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of 30 to 80 mm (moderate to heavy rain) near the center of 23W especially to the north. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Tue October 27 2009
Location of Center: 14.7º N Lat 144.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 150 km (80 nm) NNW of Guam, CNMI
Distance 2: 990 km (535 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 3: 2,135 km (1,152 nm) ENE of Bicol Region
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 70 kph (38 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 90 kph (43 kts)
12 to 18-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 60-80 mm
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 995 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WNW @ 28 kph (15 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Philippine Sea
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PST tue Oct 27
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 8 AM Tue Oct 27
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop