TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W [UNNAMED]

22W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 001
2:00 PM PST (06:00 GMT) Wed 14 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #001
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

The strong tropical disturbance (LPA/94W) north of Chuuk Island has strengthened into Tropical Depression 22W (UNNAMED)...moving quickly westward...threatens Guam and Southern Marianas.

*Residents and visitors along the Mariana Island Chain should closely monitor the progress of 22W.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: 22W is expected to continue moving quickly Westward, within the easterly flow of the strong high pressure north of it. It shall become a Tropical Storm tomorrow morning before passing to the south of Guam. The 3 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows 22W heading slightly WNW across the Western Pacific Ocean...and shall become a Category 1 Typhoon as it nears the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Monday Oct 19. *The ECMWF 10-Day Extended Long-Range Forecast: 22W is expected to slow down as it approaches the Island of Luzon on Tuesday Oct 20, intensifying into a Category 3 or 4 Typhoon...It shall make landfall over Northern Luzon or over Isabela Wednesday evening, Oct 21 and exit thru Benguet and La Union early Thursday morning, Oct 22. Please be reminded that the ECMWF model run changes every 12 hours, so a shift to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

+ Effects: 22W's broad circulation continues to consolidate while moving Westward. Its outer bands is expected to move into Southern Marianas beginning tonight - bringing scattered rains w/ squalls and thunderstorms. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 100 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along PARMA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 200 mm (very heavy rain) near the center of 22W particularly along its projected path. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

(1) Tropical Disturbance 93W (LPA) has accelerated WNW across Leyte and is now over the Visayan Sea, just south of Masbate...its rainbands ahead of its center, continues to spread across the whole of the Visayas, Bicol Region and Southern Luzon including Metro Manila...currently located near lat 11.5N lon 124.0E...or about 100 km SE of Masbate City...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph near the center...moving WNW @ 28 kph towards Romblon & Mindoro area. This system may likely become a Tropical Cyclone once it reaches the South China Sea tomorrow.

Kindly click the T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued every afternoon, and shows various tropical systems roaming across the South China Sea and the Western Pacific Ocean.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date: 2:00 PM PST Wed October 14 2009
Location of Center: 9.8º N Lat 150.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 775 km (420 nm) SE of Guam, CNMI
Distance 2: 1,405 km (760 nm) East of Yap, FSM
Distance 3: 1,740 km (940 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 4: 2,770 km (1,495 nm) ESE of Visayas, PH
Distance 5: 3,045 km (1,645 nm) ESE of Naga City, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 28 kph (15 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Southern Marianas
Size (in Diameter): 500 km (270 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 8 ft (2.4 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PST Wed Oct 14
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 2 PM Wed Oct 14
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop