TROPICAL STORM LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]

LUPIT (RAMIL) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 105 kph
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 030
6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT)
Sat 24 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #040
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Tropical Storm LUPIT (RAMIL) continued moving ENE away from Extreme Northern Luzon...heading towards Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands.

*Residents and visitors along Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands & Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of LUPIT (RAMIL).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: LUPIT is expected to continue tracking ENE to NE-ward under the steering influence of the high pressure ridge located to the east of it. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LUPIT accelerating NNE or NE into the mid-level westerly windflow and also starts weakenening as it enters an area of increasing wind shear (strong upper-level winds). The core shall pass about 215 km. to the south of Okinawa, Japan on early Tue Oct 27th and exit PAR. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

+ Effects: LUPIT's circulation has continued struggling as dry air affects the system. The deteriorating core has remained at sea, ENE of Batanes. Outer rainbands spreading across Extreme Northern Luzon bringing light to moderate rainfall w/ gale force winds not exceeding 60 kph today. 12 to 18-hr total rainfall amounts of 10 to 75 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of 100 to 200 mm (very heavy rain) near the center of LUPIT. Click here to view the latest eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Extreme Northern Luzon. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Northern Luzon & Taiwan.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Sat October 24 2009
Location of Center: 20.8º N Lat 125.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 335 km (180 nm) ENE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 2: 455 km (245 nm) NE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 3: 695 km (375 nm) SSW of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 4: 815 km (440 nm) NNE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 100 kph (55 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 130 kph (70 kts)
24-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 300-500 mm new!
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: ENE @ 11 kph (06 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands
Size (in Diameter): 890 km (480 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 28 ft (8.5 m)
T2K TrackMap #026 (for Public): 6 AM PST Sat Oct 24
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 2 AM Sat Oct 24
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 AM Sat Oct 24
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNAL # THREE (3) click to know meaning
In Effect: BATANES & CALAYAN GROUP OF ISLANDS.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2) click to know meaning
In Effect: NORTHERN CAGAYAN & BABUYAN ISLAND.

The above areas will experience stormy weather today (with winds not exceeding 100 kph for #02 and more than 100 kph for #03). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning
In Effect: REST OF CAGAYAN, ILOCOS NORTE & APAYAO.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 3, 2 & 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves) that could reach a high of 5 feet or more.

- Typhoon2000.com


Severe Weather Bulletin Number TWENTY-SIX
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Tropical Storm "RAMIL" (LUPIT)
Issued at 11:00 a.m., Saturday, 24 October 2009

Tropical Storm "RAMIL" has slightly weakened as it moves away from the country.

Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 a.m.) 340 km Northeast of Basco, Batanes

Coordinates: 21.7°N, 125.4°E

Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 95 kph near center
and gustiness of up to 120 kph


Movement: It is forecast to move Northeast at 15 kph

Forecast Positions/Outlook: Sunday morning:
610 kms Northeast of Basco, Batanes
Monday morning:
950 kms Northeast of Basco, Batanes or at
230 kms East of Okinawa, Southern Japan


Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal

PSWS #

Signal No. 2
(60-100 kph winds) Batanes Group
None None

Signal No. 1
(30-60 kph winds) Calayan Islands
Babuyan Islands


Public Storm Warning Signals elsewhere now lowered.

Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides.

Those living along the coast in areas under signal #2 and #3 are advised to be on alert against storm surge and big waves generated by the tropical storm.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 p.m. today.

- PAGASA