TYPHOON MELOR [20W/0918]

MELOR (20W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 195 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 125 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 140 km/hr

TYPHOON MELOR [20W/0918]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 004
5:00 PM PST (09:00 GMT)
Thu 01 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #009
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

MELOR (20W) is now a Category 3 Typhoon...continues to threaten the Northern Marianas as it begins to slightly accelerate.

*Residents and visitors along the Mariana Islands should closely monitor the progress of MELOR (20W).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: MELOR is expected to continue to intensify and track to the WNW for the next 2 days...becoming a 240-kph Super Typhoon, while passing some 90 km. to the north of Saipan on Saturday afternoon Oct 03 . The 3 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows MELOR continuing moving WNW across the Western Pacific Ocean. The system shall reach Category 5 strength with winds of 270 kph as it nears the NE corner of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

+ Effects: MELOR's circulation has improved over the past 12 hours...Its rainbands is not yet affecting any major Pacific Islands at this time. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 100 up to 200 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along MELOR's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 400 mm (very heavy rain) near the center of the storm.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PST Thu October 01 2009
Location of Center: 14.0º N Lat 152.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 780 km (420 nm) ENE of Guam, CNMI
Distance 2: 690 km (372 nm) ESE of Saipan, CNMI
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 195 kph (105 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 240 kph (130 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Category 3
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 9-12 feet [2.7-3.9 m]
Central Pressure: 944 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WNW @ 17 kph (09 kts)
General Direction: Northern Marianas
Size (in Diameter): 555 km (300 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 23 ft (7.0 m)
NWS-Guam TrackMap (for Public): 5 PM PST Thu Oct 01
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 06 GMT Thu Oct 01
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 PM Thu Oct 01
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop