Saturday, October 24, 2009

Tropical Storm Lupit is about to exit PAR this afternoon

LUPIT (RAMIL) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 100 kph TROPICAL STORM LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 033
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Sun 25 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #044
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009) Tropical Storm LUPIT (RAMIL) about to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it accelerates further towards the NE...passing due south of Okinawa and the Ryukyus.

*Residents and visitors along Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands & Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of LUPIT (RAMIL).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: LUPIT is expected to continue tracking NE-ward fast towards the Ryukyus and exit PAR this afternoon. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LUPIT weakening as it becomes an Extratropical (Middle-Latitude) Cyclone tomorrow afternoon. Complete transition into Extratropical will be on Wednesday Oct 28. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

+ Effects: LUPIT's circulation continues to accelerate NE-ward. Rainbands spreading into Okinawa and the Ryukyus...rains and winds of not in excess of 100 kph can be expected. 12 to 18-hr total rainfall amounts of 25 to 35 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of 50 to 75 mm (moderate rain) near the center of LUPIT especially along the northern part. Click here to view the latest eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Southern Japan & Taiwan.

Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Sun October 25 2009
Location of Center: 24.8º N Lat 128.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 190 km (103 nm) South of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 2: 655 km (353 nm) East of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 3: 795 km (430 nm) NE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 110 kph (60 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 140 kph (75 kts)
24-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 50-75 mm new!
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 978 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: NE @ 26 kph (14 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands
Size (in Diameter): 890 km (480 nm) / Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 24 ft (7.3 m)
T2K TrackMap #029 (for Public): 6 AM PST Sun Oct 25
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 8 AM Sun Oct 25
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 AM Sun Oct 25
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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