TROPICAL STORM 22W [UNNAMED]

22W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM 22W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 005
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT)
Thu 15 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #006
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Tropical Storm 22W (UNNAMED) maintained its fast-track towards the west and into the Philippine Sea...intensifying slightly...expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow evening.

*Residents and visitors along Eastern Luzon should closely monitor the progress of 22W.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: 22W is expected to start turning more to the WNW and slowing down w/in the next 24 to 36 hours upon entering the eastern boundary of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow evening. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows 22W intensifying into a typhoon...as it makes a very slow NW turn on Saturday and Sunday (Oct 17-18)...this is due to a passing middle-latitude low pressure (trough) north of it. Then, on Monday Oct 19th, the typhoon shall resume its westerly track towards Northern Luzon. 22W shall rapidly grow into a Category 4 Typhoon w/ winds of 215 kph on Tuesday Oct 20th. *ECMWF 10-Day Extended Long-Range Forecast: 22W shall make landfall over Northern Luzon or over Isabela-Cagayan Area on Wednesday late afternoon, Oct 21 and exit thru Ilocos Provinces early Thursday morning, Oct 22. It shall be approaching Hainan Island on Saturday or Sunday (Oct 24-25). Please be reminded that the ECMWF model run changes every 12 hours, so a shift to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

+ Effects: 22W's broad circulation continues to consolidate while moving rapidly to the west. Its eastern outer feeder bands now moving away from Guam and Southern Marianas - improving weather conditions expected. Western outer feeder bands beginning to spread across Ulithi and Yap Islands - where stormy conditions can be expected beginning this afternoon. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 100 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along PARMA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 200 mm (very heavy rain) near the center of 22W particularly along its projected path. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

(1) Tropical Disturbance 93W (LPA) continues to move West across the South China Sea...strong ITCZ affecting Northern and Central Luzon where scattered to widespread rains can be expected...currently located near lat 12.1N lon 117.0E...or about 350 km West of Coron, Palawan...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph near the center...moving West @ 26 kph towards Vietnam. This system has become weak and the chances of becoming a Tropical Cyclone while over the South China Sea is poor.

Kindly click the T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued every afternoon, and shows various tropical systems roaming across the South China Sea and the Western Pacific Ocean.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date:6:00 PM PST Thu October 15 2009
Location of Center: 12.3º N Lat 141.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 400 km (215 nm) WSW of Guam, CNMI
Distance 2: 470 km (255 nm) NE of Yap, FSM
Distance 3: 685 km (370 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 4: 1,845 km (995 nm) ESE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 5: 1,965 km (1,060 nm) ESE of Metro Naga/CWC
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph (40 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (45 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 42 kph (23 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Philippine Sea
Size (in Diameter): 650 km (350 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 2 PM Thu Oct 15
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Image: Latest Rainrate 01
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop