THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.2N 162.6E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 160.8E, APPROXIMATELY 215 NM NORTHEAST OF
POHNPEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH INCREASED CONVECTION THAT HAS BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM POHNPEI
INDICATE A 24-HOUR PRESSURE FALL OF 1 MB. A WESTERLY WIND BURST
LOCATED ALONG THE EQUATOR IS ENHANCING THE WESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER A REGION OF
FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE, HOWEVER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS ALSO
MODERATE TO HIGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED
CONVECTION AND CONSOLIDATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
FAIR.