TROPICAL DEPRESSION PARMA [PEPENG/19W/0917]

PARMA (PEPENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 kph
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 60 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr

TROPICAL DEPRESSION PARMA [PEPENG/19W/0917]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 041
6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT)
Sun 11 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #053
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Tropical Depression PARMA (PEPENG) has accelerated and moved out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...threatens Hainan Island and Vietnam.

*Residents and visitors along Hainan Island and Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of PARMA.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: PARMA is expected to regain Tropical Storm Status and make landfall over Hainan Island tomorrow afternoon, with forecast wind strength of 65 or 75 kph. The 2 to 4-day Long-Range Forecast shows PARMA weakening into a Tropical Depression after crossing Hainan and shall be over the Gulf of Tonkin Tuesday Oct 13. It shall make its final landfall over Vietnam as a weak TD on Wednesday Oct 14. Dissipation of this system is forecast on Thursday Oct 15 while over Laos.

+ Effects: PARMA's circulation slowly re-organizing over the South China Sea...with its low-level circulation center (LLCC) now moving slowly back to its main convection. Its outer rainbands is expected to reach Hainan Island later today. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 100 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along PARMA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 250 mm (very heavy rain) near the center of PARMA or along mountains slopes particularly along its path. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

(1) Tropical Storm NEPARTAK [21W] quasi-stationary south of Chichi Jima Island...currently located near 22.2 N lat 142.0 E Lon...about 300 km SSE of Iwo To (formerly Iwo Jima). With maximum sustained winds of 65 kph near the center. This storm is not a threat to any land areas at this time. Click here to view the latest T2K advisory.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Sun October 11 2009
Location of Center: 17.7º N Lat 114.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 615 km (332 nm) West of Vigan City
Distance 2: 515 km (278 nm) South of Hong Kong
Distance 3: 540 km (290 nm) ESE of Sanya, Hainan Is.
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WSW @ 28 kph (15 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Hainan-Vietnam Area
Size (in Diameter): 445 km (240 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 15 ft (4.5 m)
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 2 AM Sat Oct 10
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 AM Sun Oct 11
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 3-days Ahead
EORC-JAXA TRMM Image: Latest Rainrate 01
NASA-JAXA TMI Image: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

- Typhoon2000.com