SUPER TYPHOON MELOR [20W/0918]

MELOR (20W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 240 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 230 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 200 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 195 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 195 km/hr

SUPER TYPHOON MELOR [20W/0918]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 013
6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT)
Tue 06 October 2009
Source: JTWC WARNING #027
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Super Typhoon MELOR (QUEDAN) has already reached its matured stage as a Tropical Cyclone...now begins to decay, downgraded to Category 4...expected to exit PAR tonight as it heads for Southern Japan.

*Residents and visitors along the Okinawa, Ryukyus and Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of MELOR (20W).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: MELOR is expected to continue moving quickly to the NW to NNW within the next 24 hours and recurve to the NE in 48 hours. The 3 to 4-day Medium-Range Forecast shows MELOR accelerating fast as it enters the mid-latitude westerlies...bringing MELOR towards Southern Honshu. The core shall now make landfall over Southern Honshu, passing very close to Tokyo on Thursday morning, Oct 08 at approx 10 AM HK Time. MELOR shall become Extratropical on Friday Oct 9 as it moves across the NW Pacific Ocean, south of Kuril Island Group.

+ Effects: MELOR's circulation remains very impressive however, deterioration of its organization has started. The system is also undergoing an EyeWall Replacement Cycle (ERC) as shown on latest imageries. This powerful system is not yet affecting any major Pacific Islands at this time. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 100 up to 200 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along MELOR's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of more than 400 mm (extreme rain) near the center or along the Eyewall of this Super Typhoon.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Tue October 06 2009
Location of Eye: 22.0º N Lat 132.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 645 km (350 nm) SE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 2: 1,060 km (572 nm) ENE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 3: 1,270 km (685 nm) ENE of TS PARMA
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 240 kph (130 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 295 kph (170 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Category 4
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 13-18 feet [4.0-5.5 m]
Central Pressure: 926 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: NW @ 30 kph (16 kts)
General Direction: Southern Japan
Size (in Diameter): 945 km (510 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 38 ft (11.5 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PST Tue Oct 06
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 2 AM Tue Oct 6
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 5 AM Tue Oct 6
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop