TROPICAL STORM MIRINAE [23W/0921]

MIRINAE (23W/0921) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 kph

TROPICAL STORM MIRINAE [23W/0921]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 005
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT)
Tue 27 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / NWS-GUAM DOPPLER RADAR FIX
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Tropical Storm 23W (UNNAMED) has been christened as MIRINAE...moving quickly Northwestward farther away from the Marianas...may threaten Luzon, Philippines in 2 to 3 days.

*Residents and visitors along the eastern coasts of Luzon & Visayas (Philippines) should closely monitor the progress of MIRINAE (23W).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: MIRINAE's forecast outlook has changed slightly...now expected to continue tracking WNW within the next 1-2 days. It will reach Typhoon intensity early Thursday morning, as it enters the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system turning more Westward late Thursday Oct 29 until Friday Oct 30th...and will be approaching the eastern coast of Luzon on Saturday morning, Oct 31 as a Category 3 Typhoon (195 kph) about more or less 300 km. North of Camarines Sur. The core will make landfall in between the towns of Baler & Casiguran in Aurora on late Saturday afternoon - crossing Central Luzon via Nueva Vizcaya, Tarlac, Pangasinan and Zambales during the night. It will exit the South China Sea on All Saint's Day, November 01. *Alternate Forecast Scenario (AFS): The latest ECMWF Extended Forecast issued at 8AM today, showed the system passing close just north of Camarines Norte and traversing Polillo Islands and making landfall over Northern Quezon, Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, and Zambales beginning Saturday afternoon until Sunday morning (Oct 30-Nov 01). This AFS track may happen if the High Pressure Steering Ridge off SE China and Taiwan strengthens more. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

+ Effects: MIRINAE's circulation has been improving over the past 12 hours. Its rainbands has left Marianas...improving weather conditions expected. As of now, this system has been moving across warm open waters of the Western Pacific Ocean. 6 to 12-hr total rainfall amounts of 2 to 50 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of 60 to 75 mm (moderate to heavy rain) near the center of Mirinae especially to the north. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Tue October 27 2009
Location of Center: 15.6º N Lat 142.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 320 km (173 nm) NW of Guam, CNMI
Distance 2: 845 km (457 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 3: 2,000 km (1,080 nm) ENE of Bicol Region
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph (40 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
6 to 12-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 60-75 mm
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: NW @ 33 kph (18 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Philippine Sea
Size (in Diameter): 445 km (240 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 13 ft (3.9 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PST tue Oct 27
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 2 PM Tue Oct 27
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop