TROPICAL STORM PARMA [PEPENG/19W/0917]

PARMA (PEPENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 kph
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 60 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM PARMA [PEPENG/19W/0917]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 037
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT)
Fri 09 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #047
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

PARMA (PEPENG) regained strength and has been upgraded into a Tropical Storm...continues to drift slowly away from the coast of Western Luzon.

*Residents and visitors along Hainan Island and Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of PARMA.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: PARMA is expected to track WNW across the South China Sea for the next 3 days and exit PAR tomorrow. The 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows PARMA accelerating WNW, reaching 85 kph as it approaches Hainan Island. PARMA is forecast to make two landfalls over Hainan Island on Tuesday Oct 13 and over Vietnam on Wednesday Oct 14.

+ Effects: PARMA's circulation continues to move slowly, away from Western Luzon...Light rains can still be expected from its outer bands. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 100 up to 200 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along PARMA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 300 mm (very heavy rain) near the center of PARMA or along mountains slopes particularly along its path. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

(1) Tropical Storm NEPARTAK [21W] upgraded from TD 21W continues to drift slowly NNW...following the path of MELOR (QUEDAN) off Kuril Islands. Watch for the separate page on this system tonight. Kindly click the cool T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued every afternoon, and shows various tropical systems roaming across the South China Sea and the Western Pacific Ocean.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Fri October 09 2009
Location of Center: 17.0º N Lat 119.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 115 km (63 nm) WNW of San Fernando City
Distance 2: 135 km (73 nm) SW of Vigan City
Distance 3: 155 km (83 nm) WNW of Baguio City
Distance 4: 155 km (83 nm) NW of Dagupan City
Distance 5: 330 km (180 nm) NNW of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph (40 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 11 kph (06 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: South China Sea
Size (in Diameter): 555 km (300 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 2 PM Fri Oct 9
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 PM Fri Oct 9
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
EORC-JAXA TRMM Viewer: Real-Time Rainrate Image
NASA-JAXA TMI Viewer: Latest Rainrate Image
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning
In Effect: ILOCOS NORTE, ILOCOS SUR, LA UNION & WESTERN PANGASINAN.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph tonight. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides.