TROPICAL STORM PARMA [PEPENG/19W/0917]

PARMA (PEPENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 100 kph
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM PARMA [PEPENG/19W/0917]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 050
6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT)
Wed 14 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #065
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

PARMA (PEPENG) starting to weaken as it approaches the shorelines of Northern Vietnam...downgraded to Tropical Storm.

*Residents and visitors along Northern Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of PARMA.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: PARMA is expected to make landfall ESE of Hanoi this afternoon or noontime. It will dissipate rapidly later tonight as it tracks overland across Northern Vietnam.

+ Effects: PARMA's main core is off the coast of Northern Vietnam. Its Eyewall has weaken but still affecting the coast...with the EYE deteriorating some 50 km. away from the shoreline of Northern Vietnam...Tropical Storm conditions (winds of not more than 100 kph) can be expected throughout the day. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 100 up to 200 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along PARMA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 300 mm (heavy to extreme rain) near the center of PARMA or along mountains slopes particularly along its path. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

(1) Tropical Disturbance 93W (LPA) is now along the SE coast of Samar Island...w/ its rainbands ahead of its center, covering the whole of the Visayas & Bicol Region...currently located near lat 10.8N lon 126.0E...or about 120 km ESE of Tacloban City, Leyte...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph near the center...moving WNW @ 22 kph Leyte & Northern Visayas. This system may likely become a Tropical Cyclone once it reaches the South China Sea tomorrow or Friday.

(2) Tropical Disturbance 94W [LPA], a new one has been observed forming west of Marshall Islands and is moving West to WNW in the direction of the Marianas. This system may likely become a Tropical Cyclone w/in the next 24-48 hours...currently located near 1at 10.0N lon 153.0E...or about 970 km ESE of Guam...1,970 km East of P.A.R...2,995 km East of Visayas. It has 1-min. windspeeds of 40 kph near the center. The latest (12Z Oct 13) European Forecast Guidance Model (ECMWF, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts), which is the better and most-reliable guidance model this 2009 - shows this system heading westerly into the Philippine Sea, this weekend, becoming a dangerous typhoon as it approaches Luzon, Philippines on Wednesday, October 21 and striking Isabela-Northern Luzon Area on Thursday to Friday (October 22 to 23). Please take note that this model changes every 12 hours, so a shift to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

Kindly click the T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued every afternoon, and shows various tropical systems roaming across the South China Sea and the Western Pacific Ocean.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Wed October 14 2009
Location of Center: 20.5º N Lat 107.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 55 km (30 nm) East of N.Vietnam's Shoreline
Distance 2: 165 km (90 nm) ESE of Hanoi, Vietnam
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 100 kph (55 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 130 kph (70 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WNW @ 05 kph (03 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Northern Vietnam
Size (in Diameter): 445 km (240 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 11 ft (3.3 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PST Wed Oct 14
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 2 AM Wed Oct 14
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 AM Wed Oct 14
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 1-day Ahead
EORC-JAXA TRMM Image: Latest Rainrate 01
NASA-JAXA TMI Image: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop