TYPHOON LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]

LUPIT (RAMIL) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 195 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 175 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 165 kph
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr

TYPHOON LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 020
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT)
Tue 20 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #026
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Typhoon LUPIT (RAMIL) slowing down as it starts heading westward...currently undergoing an Eyewall Replacement Cycle (ERC)...no change in strength.

*Residents and visitors along the Island of Luzon (particularly Northern Luzon) should closely monitor the progress of LUPIT (RAMIL).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: LUPIT is expected to slightly decelerate and turn more westerly to WSW-ward w/in the next 12 to 24 hours. Its wind speed will slighty strengthen back to Category 3 (185 kph) as it moves closer to Northern Luzon due to improved atmospheric conditions (warm ocean moisture & unstable air). The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LUPIT approaching the northern coast of Cagayan on a WSW direction, as the High Pressure Steering Ridge building off China strengthens and steer the dangerous typhoon. LUPIT shall make landfall over Northern Cagayan on early Thursday evening Oct 22...passing very close to the north of Aparri between 8-9PM Thu. It shall cross Apayao and exit thru Ilocos Norte-Sur Area on Friday afternoon Oct 23, between 2-3PM...and over the South China Sea on Saturday morning, Oct 24. The typhoon shall turn westward while over the South China Sea, in the direction of Hainan Island-Vietnam Area on Sunday Oct 25. *Alternate Forecast Scenario: There is a possibility that LUPIT might track Westward passing thru the Balintang Channel and spare Cagayan & Ilocos Norte from a direct hit. This scenario is likely if the high pressure steering ridge located off Eastern China weakens. The probability of this alternate forecast still remains fair. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a shift to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

+ Effects: LUPIT's large circulation has become slightly stable. The eye remains cloud-filled as undergoes an Eyewall Replacement as shown on current satellite images. Its outer & inner rain bands remains at sea...not yet affecting any major islands at this time. LUPIT may begin to affect Northern Luzon tomorrow afternoon or evening (Oct 21) - if the forecast movement continues...deteriorating weather conditions expected. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 up to 200 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated accumulations of 400 mm or more (very heavy to extreme rain) near the center of LUPIT particularly along its projected path.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Tue October 20 2009
Location of Eye: 20.4º N Lat 129.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 750 km (405 nm) East of Basco, Batanes
Distance 2: 815 km (440 nm) ENE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 3: 845 km (455 nm) NE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 4: 855 km (460 nm) NE of Ilagan City
Distance 5: 885 km (478 nm) NE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 6: 935 km (505 nm) ENE of Laoag City
Distance 7: 990 km (535 nm) NNE of Naga City
Distance 8: 1,075 km (580 nm) NE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 175 kph (95 kts) near the Eye
Peak Wind Gusts: 215 kph (115 kts)
Rainbands' Rain Rate: 2 to 30 mm/hr (.02 to 1.2 in/hr) new!
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 6-8 feet [1.8-2.6 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 952 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 15 kph (08 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Extreme Northern Luzon
Size (in Diameter): 890 km (480 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 34 ft (10.3 m)
T2K TrackMap #018 (for Public): 5 PM PST Tue Oct 20
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 2 PM Tue Oct 20
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 PM Tue Oct 20
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Image: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Image: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2) click to know meaning
Now In Effect: BATANES ISLAND GROUP, CAGAYAN, CALAYAN & BABUYAN ISLANDS, & ISABELA.

The above areas will experience stormy weather beginning tomorrow afternoon (with winds not exceeding 100 kph). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning
Now In Effect: ILOCOS NORTE, ILOCOS SUR, APAYAO, ABRA, KALINGA, MOUNTAIN PROVINCE, BENGUET, LA UNION, IFUGAO, NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO, AURORA, NORTHERN AURORA, & POLILLO ISLAND.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph beginning tonight or tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbes 2 & 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves) that could reach a high of 10 feet.