TYPHOON LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]

LUPIT (RAMIL) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 175 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 140 kph
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr

TYPHOON LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 011
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT)
Sat 16 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #014
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Typhoon LUPIT (RAMIL) approaching Category 3 strength...drifting slowly northward. Threat to Luzon continues.

*Residents and visitors along Luzon should closely monitor the progress of LUPIT (RAMIL).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: LUPIT is expected to slow down further for the next 24 to 48 hours. The 3 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LUPIT resuming its Westward track as a new High Pressure Steering Ridge building off China strengthens. This ridge shall steer LUPIT into Extreme Northern Luzon between Monday to Thursday (Oct 19-22). LUPIT shall make landfall over Northwestern Cagayan on Wednesday afternoon Oct 21 and move across Pagudpod, Ilocos Norte Wednesday evening. It shall be over the South China Sea on Thursday Oct 22. *Alternate Forecast Scenario: There is a possibility that LUPIT may track WSW earlier than forecasted and track across Central Luzon - if the new high pressure ridge located off China strengthens more. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a shift to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

+ Effects: LUPIT's circulation remains large w/ a 22-km. Ragged Eye. Its southern outer feeder bands slowly moving away from Ulithi and Yap Islands - where improving weather conditions can be expected today. This typhoon is not yet affecting Northern Luzon, however, if the forecast track pushes through, deteriorating weathern conditions can be expected beginning Monday. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 up to 200 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 400 mm (very heavy to extreme rain) near the center of LUPIT particularly along its projected path.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Sat October 17 2009
Location of Eye: 16.0º N Lat 132.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 900 km (485 nm) ENE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 935 km (505 nm) ENE of Gota, Caramoan
Distance 3: 1,005 km (543 nm) ENE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 4: 1,080 km (585 nm) East of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 5: 1,125 km (608 nm) ESE of Cauayan, Isabela
Distance 6: 1,130 km (610 nm) ESE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 7: 1,200 km (648 nm) ENE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 175 kph (95 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 215 kph (115 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 6-8 feet [1.8-2.6 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 952 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: North @ 13 kph (07 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Extreme Northern Luzon
Size (in Diameter): 850 km (460 nm) / Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 21 ft (6.4 m)
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 2 PM Sat Oct 17
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 PM Sat Oct 17
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Image: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Image: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop