Tropical Disturbance 97W ( LPA ) slowly organizing off the coast of Eastern Luzon

Tropical Disturbance 97W [LPA] a new one over the Philippine Sea east of Luzon is slowly organizing...currently located near lat 15.5N lon 131.8E...or about 845 km ENE of Virac, Catanduanes...1,155 km East of Metro Manila ...950 km ENE of Naga City. It has 1-min. windspeeds of 30 kph near the center...moving westward slowly.

TYPHOON MIRINAE [SANTI/23W/0921]

MIRINAE (SANTI) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 140 kph

TYPHOON MIRINAE [SANTI/23W/0921]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 011
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT)
Thu 29 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #014
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Typhoon MIRINAE (SANTI) continues to threaten a wide-swath of areas in Luzon with landfall projection either Aurora or Northern Quezon...now tracking Westward during the past 3 hours.

*Residents and visitors along the eastern coast of Luzon (from Cagayan down to Bicol Peninsula) should closely monitor the progress of MIRINAE (SANTI).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: MIRINAE's forecast outlook continues to change more to south matching the ECMWF (European) guidance model...expected to cross the heart of Central Luzon. The 2 to 5-day Medium-Range Forecast now shows the system approaching the northern coast of Bicol Region tomorrow night - passing more or less 150 km. North of Naga City around 10 PM. The core (eye and eyewall) will pass over Polillo Island around 2 AM Saturday and make landfall over Northern Quezon just north of Infanta between 5-6 AM as a Category 2 typhoon w/ winds of 160 kph. It will then cross Bulacan, Pampanga around 10 AM - passing about 25 km. North of Quezon City and will be over Subic Bay/Olongapo City area at around 2 PM Saturday. MIRINAE will be in the middle of the South China Sea on Sunday, November 01 and will be downgraded into a Tropical Storm before making its final landfall over Vietnam on Monday, Nov 02. It will dissipate over Cambodia on Nov 03. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

+ Effects: MIRINAE's convective circulation has slightly weakened but its wind speed remained intact. The EYE remains cloud-filled w/ its rainbands still at sea and not yet affecting parts of Eastern Luzon. The initial effects of the outer rainbands of MIRINAE over Eastern Luzon including Bicol Region can be expected beginning tomorrow morning. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 02 up to 100 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of 250 mm (heavy to very heavy rain) near the center of Mirinae. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. People living around the slopes of Mayon Volcano in Albay & of Bulusan Volcano in Sorsogon - especially along the areas where possible MUDFLOWS (LAHAR) FLOWS (mixture of volcanic mud and water) are located must stay alert as moderate to heavy rains associated by this system are likely to affect the area beginning tomorrow. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Bicol Region and Eastern Luzon. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Eastern & Northern Visayas.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Thu October 29 2009
Location of Eye: 16.0º N Lat 129.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 640 km (345 nm) NE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 680 km (368 nm) ENE of Gota Beach, Caramoan
Distance 3: 715 km (387 nm) NE of Legazpi City
Distance 4: 750 km (405 nm) ENE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 5: 760 km (410 nm) ENE of Daet, Cam.Norte
Distance 6: 810 km (437 nm) East of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 7: 865 km (467 nm) East of Baler, Aurora
Distance 8: 935 km (505 nm) ENE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 165 kph (90 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 205 kph (105 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 250 mm
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 6-8 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 30 kph (16 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Northern Quezon-Aurora
Size (in Diameter): 590 km (320 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 30 ft (9.1 m)
T2K TrackMap #02 (for Public): 6 PM PST Thu Oct 29
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 2 PM Thu Oct 29
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 PM Thu Oct 29
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2) click to know meaning
Now In Effect: AURORA, NORTHERN QUEZON, AND POLILLO ISLAND.

The above areas will experience stormy weather beginning tomorrow (with winds not exceeding 100 kph). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning
Now In Effect: CAMARINES PROVINCES, CATANDUANES, REST OF QUEZON, RIZAL, BULACAN, PAMPANGA, NUEVA ECIJA, TARLAC, PANGASINAN, NUEVA VIZCAYA, BENGUET, QUIRINO, IFUGAO, AND ISABELA.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph beginning tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 2 & 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).

TYPHOON MIRINAE [SANTI/23W/0921]

MIRINAE (SANTI) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 145 kph

TYPHOON MIRINAE [SANTI/23W/0921]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 010
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT)
Thu 29 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #013
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Typhoon MIRINAE (SANTI) has gained strength as it moves on a new track and forecast...now threatens Eastern and Central Luzon including Northern Bicol.

*Residents and visitors along the eastern coast of Luzon (from Cagayan down to Bicol Peninsula) should closely monitor the progress of MIRINAE (SANTI).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: MIRINAE's forecast outlook has changed more to south closer to the ECMWF model...expected to cross the heart of Central Luzon. The 3 to 5-day Medium-Range Forecast now shows the system approaching the eastern coast of Luzon on Friday night, Oct 30, passing more or less 190 km. North of Bicol Region around 9 PM. The core shall make landfall over Northern Quezon, in between the towns of Baler, Aurora and Infanta, Quezon around 7-8 AM Saturday morning Oct 31 and cross Nueva Ecija and Tarlac - passing over Cabanatuan City (about 80 km. north of Metro Manila) around 9 AM. MIRINAE will exit Luzon via Iba, Zambales Saturday afternoon and shall be in the middle of the South China Sea on Sunday, November 01. This system shall be downgraded into a Tropical Storm before making its final landfall over Vietnam on Monday, Nov 02. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

+ Effects: MIRINAE's circulation continues to exhibit good organization as it moves over a slightly warm Philippine Sea. Its EYE remains cloud-filled w/ its rainbands still at sea and not yet affecting parts of Eastern Luzon. The initial effects of the outer rainbands of MIRINAE over Eastern Luzon including Bicol Region can be expected beginning tomorrow morning. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 2 to 100 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of 250 mm (heavy to very heavy rain) near the center of Mirinae. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. People living around the slopes of Mayon Volcano in Albay & of Bulusan Volcano in Sorsogon - especially along the areas where possible MUDFLOWS (LAHAR) FLOWS (mixture of volcanic mud and water) are located must stay alert as moderate to heavy rains associated by this system are likely to affect the area beginning tomorrow. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Bicol Region and Eastern Luzon. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Eastern & Northern Visayas.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Thu October 29 2009
Location of Eye: 15.8º N Lat 130.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 760 km (410 nm) NE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 795 km (430 nm) ENE of Gota Beach, Caramoan
Distance 3: 830 km (448 nm) NE of Legazpi City
Distance 4: 865 km (467 nm) ENE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 5: 880 km (475 nm) ENE of Daet, Cam.Norte
Distance 6: 940 km (507 nm) ESE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 7: 995 km (537 nm) East of Baler, Aurora
Distance 8: 1,060 km (572 nm) ENE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 165 kph (90 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 205 kph (105 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 250 mm
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 6-8 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WSW @ 30 kph (16 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Northern Quezon-Aurora
Size (in Diameter): 590 km (320 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 30 ft (9.1 m)
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 8 AM Thu Oct 29
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 AM Thu Oct 29
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2) click to know meaning
Now In Effect: POLILLO ISLANDS.

The above areas will experience stormy weather beginning tomorrow (with winds not exceeding 100 kph). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning
Now In Effect: CAMARINES SUR, CAMARINES NORTE, ISABELA, IFUGAO, AURORA, QUIRINO, NUEVA VIZCAYA, NUEVA ECIJA, BULACAN, RIZAL, & QUEZON.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph beginning tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 2 & 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).

TYPHOON MIRINAE [PRE-SANTI/23W/0921]

MIRINAE (PRE-SANTI/23W/0921) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 120 kph
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TYPHOON MIRINAE [PRE-SANTI/23W/0921]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 007
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Wed 28 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #009
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Typhoon MIRINAE (PRE-SANTI) moving closer quickly to the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...wind speeds now at 140 kph...threatens Eastern Luzon.

*Residents and visitors along the eastern coast of Luzon (Philippines) should closely monitor the progress of MIRINAE (PRE-SANTI).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: MIRINAE's forecast outlook remains the same...expected to continue tracking Westward within the next 1-2 days, will enter PAR tonight approx 8 PM. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system turning a little WSW beginning tomorrow evening...will be approaching the eastern coast of Luzon on early Saturday morning, Oct 31 as a Category 3 Typhoon (185 kph), passing more or less 300 km. North of Camarines Sur. The core shall make landfall just north of Casiguran, Aurora Saturday afternoon Oct 31 and cross Northern Aurora, Southern Isabela, Quirino, Benguet, La Union and exit thru Lingayen Gulf-Cape Bolinao Area in Northern Pangasinan on Sunday morning, Nov 1st. MIRINAE will be in the middle of the South China Sea on Monday, November 02. *Alternate Forecast Scenario (AFS): The latest ECMWF Extended Forecast issued at 8PM last night, showed the system passing north of Camarines Norte and traversing Polillo Islands and making landfall over Northern Quezon, Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, and Zambales beginning Saturday afternoon until Sunday morning (Oct 31-Nov 01). This AFS track may happen if the High Pressure Steering Ridge off SE China and Taiwan strengthens more. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

+ Effects: MIRINAE continues to pick up strength along the warm waters of the Western Pacific...its circulation continues to improve, with the appearance of a small-ragged EYE. Its rainbands remains at sea and not yet affecting any major islands. The initial effects of its outer rainbands over Eastern Luzon can be expected beginning Friday, Oct 30. 6 to 12-hr total rainfall amounts of 2 to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of 150 mm (moderate to heavy rain) near the center of Mirinae. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]



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Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Wed October 28 2009
Location of Eye: 16.3º N Lat 137.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 245 km (133 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 2: 1,415 km (765 nm) ENE of Bicol Region
Distance 3: 1,620 km (875 nm) East of Aurora
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 140 kph (75 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 165 kph (90 kts)
6 to 12-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 150 mm
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 4-5 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 967 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 31 kph (17 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: S.Isabela-N.Aurora Area
Size (in Diameter): 665 km (360 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 19 ft (5.7 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PST Wed Oct 28
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 8 AM Wed Oct 28
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 AM Wed Oct 28
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

TYPHOON MIRINAE [PRE-SANTI/23W/0921]

MIRINAE (PRE-SANTI/23W/0921) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 100 kph

TYPHOON MIRINAE [PRE-SANTI/23W/0921]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 006
6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT)
Wed 28 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #008
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

MIRINAE (PRE-SANTI) rapidly intensified into a Typhoon, gaining speed as it tracks Westerly towards the Philippine Sea...expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tonight.

*Residents and visitors along the eastern coasts of Luzon (Philippines) should closely monitor the progress of MIRINAE (PRE-SANTI).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: MIRINAE's forecast outlook remains slightly the same...expected to continue tracking Westward within the next 1-2 days, will enter PAR tonight. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system turning a little WSW beginning tomorrow afternoon until end of the forecast...will be approaching the eastern coast of Luzon on early Saturday morning, Oct 31 as a Category 3 Typhoon (185 kph), passing more or less 300 km. North of Camarines Sur. The core shall make landfall north of Casiguran, Aurora Saturday afternoon Oct 31 and cross Southern Isabela, Quirino, Benguet, La Union and exit thru Lingayen Gulf-Cape Bolinao Area in Northern Pangasinan on Sunday morning, Nov 1st. MIRINAE will be in the middle of the South China Sea on Monday, November 02. *Alternate Forecast Scenario (AFS): The latest ECMWF Extended Forecast issued at 8PM last night, showed the system passing north of Camarines Norte and traversing Polillo Islands and making landfall over Northern Quezon, Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, and Zambales beginning Saturday afternoon until Sunday morning (Oct 31-Nov 01). This AFS track may happen if the High Pressure Steering Ridge off SE China and Taiwan strengthens more. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

+ Effects: MIRINAE's strong circulation has become more compact...continues to improve. Its rainbands remains at sea and not yet affecting any major islands. The initial effects of the outer rainbands over Eastern Luzon can be expected beginning Friday, Oct 30. 6 to 12-hr total rainfall amounts of 2 to 90 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of 120 mm (moderate to heavy rain) near the center of Mirinae. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Wed October 28 2009
Location of Eye: 16.2º N Lat 139.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 680 km (367 nm) NW of Guam, CNMI
Distance 2: 450 km (243 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 3: 1,615 km (872 nm) ENE of Bicol Region
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 120 kph (65 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (80 kts)
6 to 12-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 120 mm
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 4-5 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 35 kph (19 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Southern Isabela-Northern Aurora Area
Size (in Diameter): 520 km (280 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 17 ft (5.1 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PST Wed Oct 28
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 2 AM Wed Oct 28
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 AM Wed Oct 28
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

TROPICAL STORM MIRINAE [23W/0921]

MIRINAE (23W/0921) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 kph

TROPICAL STORM MIRINAE [23W/0921]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 005
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT)
Tue 27 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / NWS-GUAM DOPPLER RADAR FIX
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Tropical Storm 23W (UNNAMED) has been christened as MIRINAE...moving quickly Northwestward farther away from the Marianas...may threaten Luzon, Philippines in 2 to 3 days.

*Residents and visitors along the eastern coasts of Luzon & Visayas (Philippines) should closely monitor the progress of MIRINAE (23W).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: MIRINAE's forecast outlook has changed slightly...now expected to continue tracking WNW within the next 1-2 days. It will reach Typhoon intensity early Thursday morning, as it enters the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system turning more Westward late Thursday Oct 29 until Friday Oct 30th...and will be approaching the eastern coast of Luzon on Saturday morning, Oct 31 as a Category 3 Typhoon (195 kph) about more or less 300 km. North of Camarines Sur. The core will make landfall in between the towns of Baler & Casiguran in Aurora on late Saturday afternoon - crossing Central Luzon via Nueva Vizcaya, Tarlac, Pangasinan and Zambales during the night. It will exit the South China Sea on All Saint's Day, November 01. *Alternate Forecast Scenario (AFS): The latest ECMWF Extended Forecast issued at 8AM today, showed the system passing close just north of Camarines Norte and traversing Polillo Islands and making landfall over Northern Quezon, Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, and Zambales beginning Saturday afternoon until Sunday morning (Oct 30-Nov 01). This AFS track may happen if the High Pressure Steering Ridge off SE China and Taiwan strengthens more. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

+ Effects: MIRINAE's circulation has been improving over the past 12 hours. Its rainbands has left Marianas...improving weather conditions expected. As of now, this system has been moving across warm open waters of the Western Pacific Ocean. 6 to 12-hr total rainfall amounts of 2 to 50 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of 60 to 75 mm (moderate to heavy rain) near the center of Mirinae especially to the north. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Tue October 27 2009
Location of Center: 15.6º N Lat 142.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 320 km (173 nm) NW of Guam, CNMI
Distance 2: 845 km (457 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 3: 2,000 km (1,080 nm) ENE of Bicol Region
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph (40 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
6 to 12-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 60-75 mm
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: NW @ 33 kph (18 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Philippine Sea
Size (in Diameter): 445 km (240 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 13 ft (3.9 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PST tue Oct 27
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 2 PM Tue Oct 27
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

Tropical Storm Mirinae hits Saipan, now fastly heading towars Luzon

23W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM 23W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 004
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT)
Tue 27 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / NWS-GUAM DOPPLER RADAR FIX
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Tropical Storm 23W (UNNAMED) continues to organize as it moves away from Northern Marianas.

*Residents and visitors along the eastern coasts of Luzon & Visayas (Philippines) should closely monitor the progress of 23W (UNNAMED).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: 23W is expected to continue tracking WNW within the next 1-2 days. It will reach Typhoon intensity tomorrow evening. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system entering the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on a Westerly track on Thursday morning Oct 29...will be approaching the eastern coast of Luzon on Saturday morning, Oct 31 as a Category 4 Typhoon (215 kph) more or less 200 km. North of Camarines Sur...making landfall near Baler, Aurora on Saturday evening - crossing Central Luzon via Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Pampanga and Zambales during the night. It will exit the South China Sea on All Saint's Day, November 01. *Alternate Forecast Scenario (AFS): The latest ECMWF Extended Forecast issued at 8PM last night, showed the system passing very close to Camarines Norte, passing over Polillo Island and traversing Northern Quezon, Rizal and Metro Manila beginning Saturday evening until Sunday morning (Oct 30-Nov 01). This AFS track may happen if the High Pressure Steering Ridge off SE China and Taiwan strengthens more. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

+ Effects: 23W's developing circulation continues to consolidate and improve. Its rainbands has started to move out of the Marianas...improving weather conditions expected beginning tonight...Gale-force winds w/ light, moderate to heavy rains can still be expected across these islands troughout the day. 12 to 18-hr total rainfall amounts of 2 to 25 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of 30 to 80 mm (moderate to heavy rain) near the center of 23W especially to the north. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Tue October 27 2009
Location of Center: 14.7º N Lat 144.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 150 km (80 nm) NNW of Guam, CNMI
Distance 2: 990 km (535 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 3: 2,135 km (1,152 nm) ENE of Bicol Region
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 70 kph (38 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 90 kph (43 kts)
12 to 18-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 60-80 mm
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 995 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WNW @ 28 kph (15 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Philippine Sea
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PST tue Oct 27
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 8 AM Tue Oct 27
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

TROPICAL STORM 23W [UNNAMED]

23W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM 23W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 003
6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT)
Tue 27 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / NWS-GUAM DOPPLER RADAR FIX
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

23W (UNNAMED) strengthened into a Tropical Storm...now passing close to Guam, as depicted on Andersen Air Base' Doppler Radar.

*Residents and visitors along the Mariana Islands should closely monitor the progress of 23W (UNNAMED).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: 23W is expected to continue tracking WNW within the next 2 days...under the influence of the High Pressure Steering Ridge north of it...pushing 23W into the Philippine Sea. It will reach Typhoon intensity on Wednesday afternoon Oct 28. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system entering the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Thursday morning Oct 29...will be approaching the eastern coast of Luzon on Saturday, Oct 31 as a Category 4 Typhoon with winds of 215 kph...making landfall near Baler, Aurora on Saturday afternoon, Oct 31 and crossing Central Luzon via Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Pampanga and Zambales during the night...and exiting the South China Sea on All Saint's Day, November 01. *Alternate Forecast Scenario (AFS): The latest ECMWF Extended Forecast issued at 8PM last night, showed the system passing very close to Camarines Norte, passing over Polillo Island and traversing Northern Quezon, Rizal and Metro Manila beginning Saturday evening until Sunday morning (Oct 30-Nov 01). This AFS track may happen if the High Pressure Steering Ridge off SE China and Taiwan strengthens more. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

+ Effects: 23W's developing circulation continues to consolidate and improve. Its rainbands lashing the Marianas including Guam...Gale-force winds w/ light, moderate to heavy rains can be expected across these islands. 06 to 12-hr total rainfall amounts of 2 to 50 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of 60 to 80 mm (moderate to heavy rain) near the center of 23W especially to the north. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Tue October 27 2009
Location of Center: 14.1º N Lat 145.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 125 km (68 nm) ENE of Guam, CNMI
Distance 2: 1,160 km (628 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 3: 2,310 km (1,248 nm) East of Bicol Region, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
06 to 12-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 60-80 mm
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WNW @ 28 kph (15 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Mariana Islands
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PST tue Oct 27
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 2 AM Tue Oct 27
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W [UNNAMED]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 001 [INITIAL]
2:00 PM PST (06:00 GMT)
Mon 26 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #001
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

The strong tropical disturbance (LPA) over Eastern Micronesia has strengthened into Tropical Depression 23W (UNNAMED)...accelerating WNW towards the Marianas...may pose a threat to the Philippines in the coming days.

*Residents and visitors along the Mariana Islands should closely monitor the progress of 23W (UNNAMED).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: 23W is expected to quickly move more to the west within the next 2 days as the High Pressure Steering Ridge north of it strengthens...pushing 23W into the Philippine Sea. It shall attain Tropical Storm status later tonight. The 3 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system entering the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Thursday morning Oct 29, as a Category 1 Typhoon with winds of 140 kph...will be approaching the northern coast of Bicol Region on Saturday, Oct 31 as a Category 3 Typhoon with winds of 185 kph. *Initial Impact Forecast (IIF):The latest ECMWF 7-day extended forecast shows the system crossing Northern Bicol, Southern Tagalog Provinces including Metro Manila on Friday or Saturday (Oct 30-31). Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

+ Effects: 23W's developing circulation continues to consolidate. Its rainbands expected to reach Marianas including Guam later tonight...Gale-force winds w/ rains can be expected.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date: 2:00 PM PST Mon October 26 2009
Location of Center: 13.2º N Lat 149.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 550 km (297 nm) East of Guam, CNMI
Distance 2: 1,610 km (870 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 3: 2,790 km (1,507 nm) East of Bicol Region, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
24-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): N/A
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WNW @ 26 kph (14 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Mariana Islands
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 ft (3.0 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PST Mon Oct 26
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 8 AM Mon Oct 26
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

Tropical Disturbance 95W [LPA] is now the subject of a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA)

Tropical Disturbance 95W [LPA] is now the subject of a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA) based on JTWC's analysis...will developed into a Tropical Depression within the next 06 to 24 housr. Currently located near 1at 12.5N lon 152.3E...or about 820 km ESE of Guam...1,875 km East of P.A.R...2,910 km East of Visayas. It has 1-min. windspeeds of 40 kph near the center. The latest (8PM Oct 25) European Forecast Guidance Model (ECMWF, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts), which is the better and most-reliable guidance model this 2009 - continues to show this system heading westward quickly (aka. "Straight-Runner" track) into the Philippine Sea this week. Becoming a dangerous typhoon as it approaches Luzon, Philippines on Thursday, October 29 and striking Bicol Region-Southern Tagalog-NCR Area on Halloween Weekend, Friday-Saturday (Oct 30 to 31). Please take note that this model changes every 12 hours, so a shift to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

Tropical Storm LUPIT (RAMIL) fast becoming an Extratropical Cyclone as it moves quickly northeastward.

LUPIT (RAMIL) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 kph

TROPICAL STORM LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 035 [FINAL]
6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT)
Mon 26 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #048
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Tropical Storm LUPIT (RAMIL) fast becoming an Extratropical Cyclone as it moves quickly northeastward.

*This is the Final Advisory on this system.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: LUPIT is expected to complete its Extratropical transition late today.

+ Effects: N/A

Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Mon October 26 2009
Location of Center: 27.0º N Lat 132.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 450 km (243 nm) ENE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 2: 1,295 km (702 nm) NE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph (45 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph (55 kts)
24-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 100-150 mm new!
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: NE @ 33 kph (18 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Southern Honshu's Coast
Size (in Diameter): 835 km (450 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 22 ft (6.7 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PST Mon Oct 26
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 2 AM Mon Oct 26
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 AM Mon Oct 26
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

Tropical Disturbance 95W [LPA], continues to organize as it moves West slowly

Tropical Disturbance 95W [LPA], continues to organize as it moves West slowly. This system may likely become a Tropical Cyclone w/in the next 48 to 72 hours...currently located near 1at 11.5N lon 153.9E...or about 1,010 km ESE of Guam...2,060 km East of P.A.R...3,075 km East of Visayas. It has 1-min. windspeeds of 30 kph near the center. The latest (8AM Oct 25) European Forecast Guidance Model (ECMWF, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts), which is the better and most-reliable guidance model this 2009 - continues to show this system heading westward (aka. "Straight-Runner") into the Philippine Sea, early next week, becoming a dangerous tropical storm or minimal typhoon as it approaches Luzon, Philippines on Thursday-Friday, October 29-30 and striking Northern Bicol-Polillo-NCR/Central Luzon Area on Halloween Weekend, Saturday-Sunday (Oct 31 to Nov 01). Please take note that this model changes every 12 hours, so a shift to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

Tropical Storm Ramil exits the PAR

LUPIT (RAMIL) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 kph TROPICAL STORM LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 034
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Sun 25 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #046
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009) Tropical Storm LUPIT (RAMIL) exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...now moving away from Okinawa.

*Residents and visitors along the coasts of Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of LUPIT (RAMIL).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: LUPIT is expected to move NE-ward rapidly towards the coast of Southern Honshu. The 2-day Short-Range Forecast shows LUPIT becoming an Extratropical (Middle-Latitude) Cyclone on Tuesday afternoon, Oct 27.

+ Effects: LUPIT's circulation continues to deteriorate. Its rainbands spreading into Okinawa and the Ryukyus and is now approaching SW Japan...rains and winds of not in excess of 95 kph can be expected. 24-hr total rainfall amounts of 25 to 50 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of 75 to 100 mm (moderate rain) near the center of LUPIT especially along its northern part. Click here to view the latest eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Southern Japan & Taiwan.

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Sun October 25 2009
Location of Center: 25.5º N Lat 129.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 180 km (97 nm) SE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 2: 785 km (425 nm) East of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 3: 940 km (508 nm) NE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 95 kph (50 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 120 kph (65 kts)
24-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 75-100 mm new!
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: NE @ 22 kph (12 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Southern Honshu's Coast
Size (in Diameter): 925 km (500 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 23 ft (7.0 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PST Sun Oct 25
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 2 PM Sun Oct 25
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 PM Sun Oct 25
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

Tropical Disturbance 95w is worthlywatch for possibe TCFA in the next 24-48 hours

Tropical Disturbance 95W [LPA], continues to move Westward in the direction of the Southern Marianas. This system may likely become a Tropical Cyclone w/in the next 36 to 48 hours...currently located near 1at 11.3N lon 154.0E...or about 1,025 km ESE of Guam...2,070 km East of P.A.R...3,085 km East of Visayas. It has 1-min. windspeeds of 30 kph near the center. The latest (12Z Oct 24) European Forecast Guidance Model (ECMWF, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts), which is the better and most-reliable guidance model this 2009 - shows this system heading westward (aka. "Straight-Runner") into the Philippine Sea, early next week, becoming a dangerous typhoon as it approaches Luzon, Philippines on Thursday-Friday, October 29-30 and striking Northern Bicol-NCR-Central Luzon Area on Halloween Weekend, Saturday-Sunday (Oct 31 to Nov 01). Please take note that this model changes every 12 hours, so a shift to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

- Typhoon2000.com

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
345 PM CHST SUN OCT 25 2009

GUZ001>004-PMZ151>154-260700-
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-MARIANAS COASTAL WATERS-
345 PM CHST SUN OCT 25 2009

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE MARIANAS...

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY CENTERED ABOUT 625 MILES EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE MARIANAS NEAR 11N154E IS SLOWLY DEVELOPING AND MAY
INTENSIFY INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTER...BASED ON SATELLITE DATA...ARE
ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 MPH.

THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN MARIANAS...WITH THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE BRINGING THE CENTER JUST SOUTH OF GUAM ON TUESDAY.

SINCE OCTOBER IS ONE OF THE PEAK MONTHS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES IN
MICRONESIA...RESIDENTS OF THE MARIANAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THIS
DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WEAK DISTURBANCES CAN
QUICKLY INTENSIFY THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THIS PART OF THE WESTERN
PACIFIC...AND WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY HAVE TO BE ISSUED ON SHORT
NOTICE.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL UPDATE THIS INFORMATION AS NEEDED
BASED ON FORECAST INFORMATION FROM THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE

- NWS-Guam

Tropical Storm Lupit is about to exit PAR this afternoon

LUPIT (RAMIL) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 100 kph TROPICAL STORM LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 033
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Sun 25 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #044
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009) Tropical Storm LUPIT (RAMIL) about to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it accelerates further towards the NE...passing due south of Okinawa and the Ryukyus.

*Residents and visitors along Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands & Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of LUPIT (RAMIL).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: LUPIT is expected to continue tracking NE-ward fast towards the Ryukyus and exit PAR this afternoon. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LUPIT weakening as it becomes an Extratropical (Middle-Latitude) Cyclone tomorrow afternoon. Complete transition into Extratropical will be on Wednesday Oct 28. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

+ Effects: LUPIT's circulation continues to accelerate NE-ward. Rainbands spreading into Okinawa and the Ryukyus...rains and winds of not in excess of 100 kph can be expected. 12 to 18-hr total rainfall amounts of 25 to 35 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of 50 to 75 mm (moderate rain) near the center of LUPIT especially along the northern part. Click here to view the latest eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Southern Japan & Taiwan.

Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Sun October 25 2009
Location of Center: 24.8º N Lat 128.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 190 km (103 nm) South of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 2: 655 km (353 nm) East of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 3: 795 km (430 nm) NE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 110 kph (60 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 140 kph (75 kts)
24-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 50-75 mm new!
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 978 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: NE @ 26 kph (14 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands
Size (in Diameter): 890 km (480 nm) / Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 24 ft (7.3 m)
T2K TrackMap #029 (for Public): 6 AM PST Sun Oct 25
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 8 AM Sun Oct 25
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 AM Sun Oct 25
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

Tropical Storm "RAMIL" continues to move farther away from the country

LUPIT (RAMIL) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 100 kph

TROPICAL STORM LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 033
6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT)
Sun 25 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #044
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Tropical Storm LUPIT (RAMIL) gained more strength as it accelerates away from the Philippines...approaching Okinawa and the Ryukyus (Southern Islands of Japan).

*Residents and visitors along Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands & Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of LUPIT (RAMIL).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: LUPIT is expected to continue tracking NE-ward fast towards the Ryukyus and shall exit PAR this afternoon. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LUPIT weakening as it becomes an Extratropical (Middle-Latitude) Cyclone tomorrow afternoon. Complete transition into Extratropical will be on Wednesday Oct 28. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

+ Effects: LUPIT's circulation has slightly improved as it accelerates NE-ward. Rainbands continues spreading into Okinawa and the Ryukyus...rains and winds of not in excess of 100 kph can be expected. 24-hr total rainfall amounts of 25 to 75 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of 100 to 200 mm (very heavy rain) near the center of LUPIT especially along the northern part. Click here to view the latest eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Southern Japan & Taiwan.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

Tropical Disturbance 95W [LPA], a new one has been observed forming over the Pacific Ocean and is moving West to WNW in the direction of the Southern Marianas. This system may likely become a Tropical Cyclone w/in the next 36 to 48 hours...currently located near 1at 11.2N lon 156.5E...or about 1,295 km ESE of Guam...2,345 km East of P.A.R...3,370 km East of Visayas. It has 1-min. windspeeds of 30 kph near the center. The latest (12Z Oct 24) European Forecast Guidance Model (ECMWF, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts), which is the better and most-reliable guidance model this 2009 - shows this system heading westward (aka. "Straight-Runner") into the Philippine Sea, early next week, becoming a dangerous typhoon as it approaches Luzon, Philippines on Thursday-Friday, October 29-30 and striking Northern Bicol-NCR-Central Luzon Area on Halloween Weekend, Saturday-Sunday (Oct 31 to Nov 01). Please take note that this model changes every 12 hours, so a shift to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

Kindly click the T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued every afternoon, and shows various tropical systems roaming across the South China Sea and the Western Pacific Ocean.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Sun October 25 2009
Location of Center: 24.1º N Lat 127.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 270 km (145 nm) SSE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 2: 595 km (320 nm) ESE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 3: 700 km (378 nm) NE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 110 kph (60 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 140 kph (75 kts)
24-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 100-200 mm new!
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 978 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: NE @ 24 kph (13 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands
Size (in Diameter): 795 km (430 nm) / Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 29 ft (8.8 m)
T2K TrackMap #028 (for Public): 6 PM PST Sat Oct 24
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 2 AM Sun Oct 25
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 AM Sun Oct 25
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.2N 162.6E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 160.8E, APPROXIMATELY 215 NM NORTHEAST OF
POHNPEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH INCREASED CONVECTION THAT HAS BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM POHNPEI
INDICATE A 24-HOUR PRESSURE FALL OF 1 MB. A WESTERLY WIND BURST
LOCATED ALONG THE EQUATOR IS ENHANCING THE WESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER A REGION OF
FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE, HOWEVER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS ALSO
MODERATE TO HIGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED
CONVECTION AND CONSOLIDATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
FAIR.

tropical Disturbance 95w might become a Tropical Depression within the next 24-36 hours

000
WWMY80 PGUM 241057
SPSMY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
857 PM CHST SAT OCT 24 2009

GUZ001>004-PMZ151>154-250700-
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-MARIANAS COASTAL WATERS-
857 PM CHST SAT OCT 24 2009

...DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE MARIANAS...

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE MARIANAS NEAR 10N160E IS STEADILY DEVELOPING
AND MAY INTENSIFY INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTER...BASED ON SATELLITE
DATA...ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 MPH.

WEATHER FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE
WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN MARIANAS.
SINCE OCTOBER AND NOVEMBER ARE THE PEAK MONTHS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
ACTIVITY IN MICRONESIA...RESIDENTS OF THE MARIANAS ARE ADVISED TO
CLOSELY MONITOR ITS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WEAK
DISTURBANCES CAN QUICKLY INTENSIFY DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THIS
PART OF THE WESTERN PACIFIC CALLED TYPHOON ALLEY.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL UPDATE THIS INFORMATION AS NEEDED
BASED ON FORECAST INFORMATION FROM THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER.

$$

MILLER

- NWS-Guam

TROPICAL STORM LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]

LUPIT (RAMIL) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 95 kp


TROPICAL STORM LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 032
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT)
Sat 24 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #042
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Tropical Storm LUPIT (RAMIL) maintaining its intensity as it moves NNE away from the Philippines...now threatens Okinawa and the Ryukyus (Southern Islands of Japan).

*Residents and visitors along Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands & Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of LUPIT (RAMIL).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: LUPIT is expected to continue tracking NNE to NE-ward under the steering influence of the high pressure ridge located to the ESE. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LUPIT turning ENE as it exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow afternoon. It shall be downgraded into a depression on Tuesday and dissipate over water. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

+ Effects: LUPIT's weak circulation continues to deteriorate while moving NNE. Outer rainbands now spreading into Okinawa and the Ryukyus...rains and winds of not in excess of 60 kph can be expected. 24-hr total rainfall amounts of 25 to 75 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of 100 to 300 mm (very heavy rain) near the center of LUPIT. Click here to view the latest eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Extreme Northern Luzon. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Northern Luzon & Taiwan.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Sat October 24 2009
Location of Center: 23.1º N Lat 125.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 495 km (267 nm) NE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 2: 675 km (365 nm) NNE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 3: 475 km (255 nm) SE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 4: 440 km (328 nm) SSW of Okinawa, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 95 kph (50 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 120 kph (70 kts)
24-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 100-300 mm new!
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: NNE @ 19 kph (10 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands
Size (in Diameter): 835 km (450 nm) / Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 28 ft (8.5 m)
T2K TrackMap #027 (for Public): 12 PM PST Sat Oct 24
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 2 PM Sat Oct 24
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 5 PM Sat Oct 24
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning
In Effect: BATANES GROUP OF ISLANDS.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph tonight. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 2 & 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).

Tropical Storm Lupit

Tropical Storm Lupit

Tropical Storm Lupit now heading towards Southern Japan as it losses strenght

LUPIT (RAMIL) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 105 kph

TROPICAL STORM LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 031
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT)
Sat 24 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #041
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Tropical Storm LUPIT (RAMIL) moving faster northeastward, away from Northern Philippines.

*Residents and visitors along Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands & Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of LUPIT (RAMIL).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: LUPIT is expected to continue tracking ENE to NE-ward under the steering influence of the high pressure ridge located to the ESE. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LUPIT turning ENE as it exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow evening. It shall be downgraded into a depression on Tuesday morning and dissipate over water. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

+ Effects: LUPIT's weak circulation continues to deteriorate while moving NE. Its rainbands no longer affecting any major land masses. 24-hr total rainfall amounts of 25 to 75 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of 100 to 300 mm (very heavy rain) near the center of LUPIT. Click here to view the latest eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Extreme Northern Luzon. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Northern Luzon & Taiwan.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Sat October 24 2009
Location of Center: 22.1º N Lat 125.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 385 km (208 nm) NE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 2: 555 km (300 nm) NNE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 3: 495 km (267 nm) SE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 4: 560 km (303 nm) SSW of Okinawa, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 95 kph (50 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 120 kph (70 kts)
24-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 100-300 mm new!
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: NE @ 19 kph (10 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands
Size (in Diameter): 890 km (480 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 28 ft (8.5 m)
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 8 AM Sat Oct 24
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 AM Sat Oct 24
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2) click to know meaning
In Effect: BATANES GROUP OF ISLANDS.

The above areas will experience stormy weather today (with winds not exceeding 100 kph for #02). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning
In Effect: CALAYAN AND BABUYAN ISLANDS.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 2 & 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).

TROPICAL STORM LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]

LUPIT (RAMIL) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 105 kph
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 030
6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT)
Sat 24 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #040
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Tropical Storm LUPIT (RAMIL) continued moving ENE away from Extreme Northern Luzon...heading towards Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands.

*Residents and visitors along Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands & Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of LUPIT (RAMIL).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: LUPIT is expected to continue tracking ENE to NE-ward under the steering influence of the high pressure ridge located to the east of it. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LUPIT accelerating NNE or NE into the mid-level westerly windflow and also starts weakenening as it enters an area of increasing wind shear (strong upper-level winds). The core shall pass about 215 km. to the south of Okinawa, Japan on early Tue Oct 27th and exit PAR. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

+ Effects: LUPIT's circulation has continued struggling as dry air affects the system. The deteriorating core has remained at sea, ENE of Batanes. Outer rainbands spreading across Extreme Northern Luzon bringing light to moderate rainfall w/ gale force winds not exceeding 60 kph today. 12 to 18-hr total rainfall amounts of 10 to 75 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of 100 to 200 mm (very heavy rain) near the center of LUPIT. Click here to view the latest eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Extreme Northern Luzon. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Northern Luzon & Taiwan.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Sat October 24 2009
Location of Center: 20.8º N Lat 125.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 335 km (180 nm) ENE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 2: 455 km (245 nm) NE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 3: 695 km (375 nm) SSW of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 4: 815 km (440 nm) NNE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 100 kph (55 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 130 kph (70 kts)
24-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 300-500 mm new!
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: ENE @ 11 kph (06 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands
Size (in Diameter): 890 km (480 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 28 ft (8.5 m)
T2K TrackMap #026 (for Public): 6 AM PST Sat Oct 24
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 2 AM Sat Oct 24
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 AM Sat Oct 24
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNAL # THREE (3) click to know meaning
In Effect: BATANES & CALAYAN GROUP OF ISLANDS.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2) click to know meaning
In Effect: NORTHERN CAGAYAN & BABUYAN ISLAND.

The above areas will experience stormy weather today (with winds not exceeding 100 kph for #02 and more than 100 kph for #03). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning
In Effect: REST OF CAGAYAN, ILOCOS NORTE & APAYAO.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 3, 2 & 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves) that could reach a high of 5 feet or more.

- Typhoon2000.com


Severe Weather Bulletin Number TWENTY-SIX
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Tropical Storm "RAMIL" (LUPIT)
Issued at 11:00 a.m., Saturday, 24 October 2009

Tropical Storm "RAMIL" has slightly weakened as it moves away from the country.

Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 a.m.) 340 km Northeast of Basco, Batanes

Coordinates: 21.7°N, 125.4°E

Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 95 kph near center
and gustiness of up to 120 kph


Movement: It is forecast to move Northeast at 15 kph

Forecast Positions/Outlook: Sunday morning:
610 kms Northeast of Basco, Batanes
Monday morning:
950 kms Northeast of Basco, Batanes or at
230 kms East of Okinawa, Southern Japan


Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal

PSWS #

Signal No. 2
(60-100 kph winds) Batanes Group
None None

Signal No. 1
(30-60 kph winds) Calayan Islands
Babuyan Islands


Public Storm Warning Signals elsewhere now lowered.

Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides.

Those living along the coast in areas under signal #2 and #3 are advised to be on alert against storm surge and big waves generated by the tropical storm.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 p.m. today.

- PAGASA

TROPICAL STORM LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]

LUPIT (RAMIL) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 120 kph
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 029
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT)
Fri 23 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #0

38
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009) Tropical Storm LUPIT (RAMIL) has turned northward away from Cagayan's Coast during the past 3 hours and continues losing strength...threat to Extreme Northern Luzon diminishing.

*Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon, Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands, Taiwan & Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of LUPIT (RAMIL).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: LUPIT's forecast has changed...now gearing towards the Alternate Forecast Scenario...expected to drift slowly towards the north for the next 24 hours. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LUPIT recurving to the NNE or NE slowly in the direction of Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands, as the steering high pressure ridge to its right becomes the dominant factor of pushing LUPIT poleward. The core shall be about 185 km. to the south of Okinawa, Japan on Wed Oct 28th as weakend tropical storm with winds of only 85 kph. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

+ Effects: LUPIT's circulation has continued to weaken as strong dry air from the west affects the system. The core remains at sea, just east of Basco with its inner rainbands spreading across Batanes, Calayan Island and Cagayan. Light to moderate rains w/ tropical storm force winds not exceeding 85 kph can be expected along these bands. While the outer rainbands continues to affect the rest of Northern Luzon - where overcast skies along w/ light passing rains & gale-force winds not exceeding 60 kph can be expected. 24-hr total rainfall amounts of 25 to 200 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of 300 to 500 mm (very heavy to extreme rain) near the center of LUPIT. Click here to view the latest eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Extreme Northern Luzon especially along Cagayan, Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Island Group, Isabela & Ilocos Norte. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Northern Luzon & Taiwan.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Fri October 23 2009
Location of Center: 19.9º N Lat 123.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 140 km (75 nm) ESE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 2: 190 km (103 nm) ENE of Calayan Island
Distance 3: 230 km (125 nm) NNE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 4: 300 km (162 nm) NNE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 5: 330 km (178 nm) NE of Laoag City
Distance 6: 630 km (340 nm) NNE of Metro Manila
Distance 7: 700 km (378 nm) North of Naga City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 100 kph (55 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 130 kph (70 kts)
24-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 300-500 mm new!
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: Quasi-Stationary
Projected Area of Impact: Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands
Size (in Diameter): 890 km (480 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 31 ft (9.4 m)
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 2 PM Fri Oct 23
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 PM Fri Oct 23
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNAL # THREE (3) click to know meaning
In Effect: BATANES GROUP, CAGAYAN, CALAYAN & BABUYAN ISLANDS, APAYAO, & ILOCOS NORTE.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2) click to know meaning
In Effect: -ILOCOS SUR, KALINGA, ISABELA, ABRA, & MT. PROVINCE.

The above areas will experience stormy weather today (with winds not exceeding 100 kph for #02 and more than 100 kph for #03). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning
In Effect: LA UNION, BENGUET, IFUGAO, NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO & NORTHERN AURORA.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 3, 2 & 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves) that could reach a high of 5 feet or more.

TYPHOON LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]

LUPIT (RAMIL) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 145 kph
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 125 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 120 km/hr

TYPHOON LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 026
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT)
Thu 22 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #034
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

LUPIT (RAMIL) loses strength, barely a Typhoon as it continues moving very slowly. High hopes are now on all forecast models as the system may likely track towards the north and spare Northern Luzon this weekend.

*Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of LUPIT (RAMIL).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: LUPIT is expected to continue decelerating further to just 2 kph while moving Westward w/in the next 24 to 48 hours. Its wind speed will slightly re-intensify as it moves closer near the coast of Cagayan. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LUPIT still at a snail-pace motion as it begins turning WNW into the Balintang Channel, passing north of Cagayan on Monday until Tuesday (Oct 26-27). *Alternate Forecast Scenario: There is a strong possibility that LUPIT might track abruptly Northward and recurve towards Southern Japan, sparing Extreme Northern Luzon. The probability of this alternate forecast remains high, as majority of various numerical guidance models depicts this scenario. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered. So please stay tuned.

+ Effects: LUPIT's circulation has deteriorated during the past 6 hours. A surge of dry air entered the system along the northwest portion which caused the weakening to just minimal Typhoon intensity (120 kph). The core and its inner rainbands remains at sea with its outer rainbands continues to affect Cagayan, Isabela & Aurora. Cloudy skies w/ light passing rains & winds not exceeding 55 kph can be expected along these bands. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 up to 150 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated accumulations of 300 mm or more (very heavy to extreme rain) near the center of LUPIT particularly along its projected path. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Extreme Northern Luzon especially along Cagayan, Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Island Group, Isabela & Ilocos Norte. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Northern Luzon & Taiwan.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Thu October 22 2009
Location of Eye: 18.7º N Lat 124.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 265 km (143 nm) ENE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 2: 290 km (157 nm) ESE of Calayan Island
Distance 3: 295 km (160 nm) NE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 4: 300 km (162 nm) NE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 5: 310 km (167 nm) NE of Ilagan City
Distance 6: 385 km (208 nm) ENE of Laoag City
Distance 7: 570 km (308 nm) NNE of Metro Manila
Distance 8: 590 km (318 nm) NNE of Naga City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 120 kph (65 kts) near the Eye
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (80 kts)
Rainbands' Rain Rate: 2 to 30 mm/hr (.02 to 1.2 in/hr) new!
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 4-5 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 09 kph (05 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Calayan-Babuyan Islands
Size (in Diameter): 925 km (500 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 32 ft (9.7 m)
T2K TrackMap #024 (for Public): 6 PM PST Thu Oct 22
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 2 PM Thu Oct 22
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 PM Thu Oct 22
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Image: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Image: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNAL # THREE (3) click to know meaning
In Effect: BATANES GROUP, CAGAYAN, CALAYAN & BABUYAN ISLANDS, APAYAO, & ILOCOS NORTE.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2) click to know meaning
In Effect: ILOCOS SUR, KALINGA, ISABELA, ABRA, MT. PROVINCE, IFUGAO, BENGUET, LA UNION, NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO, & AURORA.

The above areas will experience stormy weather beginning tonight or tomorrow (with winds not exceeding 100 kph for #02 and more than 100 kph for #03). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning
In Effect: PANGASINAN, TARLAC, NUEVA ECIJA, ZAMBALES, PAMPANGA, BULACAN, NORTHERN QUEZON, & POLILLO ISLANDS.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph beginning tonight or tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 3, 2 & 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves) that could reach a high of 5 feet or more.

TYPHOON LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]

LUPIT (RAMIL) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 175 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 145 kph
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr

TYPHOON LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 023
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT)
Wed 21 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #030
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Typhoon LUPIT (RAMIL) continued moving WSW closer to Extreme Northern Luzon...outer rainbands approaching Batanes Group & Northern Cagayan.

*Residents and visitors along Northern Luzon & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of LUPIT (RAMIL).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: LUPIT is expected to decelerate as it tracks WSW w/in the next 12 to 24 hours. Its wind speed will slightly strengthen back to Category 2 (165 kph) as it moves closer to the coast of Northeastern Luzon due to improved atmospheric conditions (warm ocean moisture & unstable air). The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LUPIT making landfall over the northern tip of Cagayan on Friday afternoon, Oct 23 approx. 2-3PM as it barely moves Westward. It shall continue moving ona slow trek across the Northern portions of Cagayan, Apayao and Ilocos Norte throughout Saturday Oct 24. The core shall be off Laoag City early Sunday morning Oct 25 at around 2-3AM as a weakened Tropical Storm. By Monday morning, Oct 26, LUPIT shall be moving slowly across the South China Sea, away from Ilocos Norte, re-strengthening back to a minimal Typhoon. *Alternate Forecast Scenario: There is a strong possibility that LUPIT might track Westward passing thru the Balintang Channel and spare Cagayan & Ilocos Norte from a direct hit, then move WNW to NW-ward towards Taiwan or SE China. This scenario is likely as some models deviates from the abovementioned current forecast. The probability of this alternate forecast remains high. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered. So please stay tuned.

+ Effects: LUPIT's circulation remains organized & large with a cloud-filled EYE. The outer & inner rain bands remains at sea...not yet affecting any major islands at this time, however, LUPIT may begin to affect Extreme Northern Luzon beginning tonight - if the forecast movement continues...deteriorating weather conditions can be expected within the next 36 to 72 hours. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 up to 200 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated accumulations of 400 mm or more (very heavy to extreme rain) near the center of LUPIT particularly along its projected path. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Extreme Northern Luzon especially along Cagayan, Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Island Group, Isabela & Ilocos Norte. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Northern Luzon & Taiwan.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Wed October 21 2009
Location of Eye: 19.5º N Lat 125.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 420 km (227 nm) ESE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 2: 460 km (248 nm) ENE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 3: 490 km (265 nm) NE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 4: 505 km (272 nm) NE of Ilagan City
Distance 5: 545 km (295 nm) NE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 6: 575 km (310 nm) ENE of Laoag City
Distance 7: 715 km (387 nm) NNE of Naga City
Distance 8: 755 km (408 nm) NE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 150 kph (80 kts) near the Eye
Peak Wind Gusts: 185 kph (100 kts)
Rainbands' Rain Rate: 2 to 30 mm/hr (.02 to 1.2 in/hr) new!
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 4-5 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 963 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WSW @ 13 kph (07 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Cagayan-Ilocos Norte
Size (in Diameter): 890 km (480 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 33 ft (10.0 m)
T2K TrackMap #021 (for Public): 6 PM PST Wed Oct 21
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 2 PM Wed Oct 21
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 PM Wed Oct 21
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Image: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Image: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNAL # THREE (3) click to know meaning
In Effect: NORTHERN CAGAYAN & CALAYAN-BABUYAN-BATANES ISLAND GROUP.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2) click to know meaning
In Effect: ILOCOS NORTE, APAYAO, REST OF CAGAYAN, ABRA, KALINGA, & ISABELA.

The above areas will experience stormy weather beginning tonight or tomorrow (with winds not exceeding 100 kph for #02 and more than 100 kph for #03). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning
In Effect: ILOCOS SUR, MT. PROVINCE, IFUGAO, BENGUET, LA UNION, NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO, AURORA, NORTHERN QUEZON, & POLILLO ISLANDS.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph beginning tonight or tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 3, 2 & 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves) that could reach a high of 5 feet or more.

TYPHOON LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]

LUPIT (RAMIL) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 175 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 165 kph
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr

TYPHOON LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 022
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT)
Wed 21 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #029
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Typhoon LUPIT (RAMIL) downgraded into a Category 1 system with winds of 150 kph...moving WSW in the direction of Extreme Northern Luzon. Outer rainbands to reach the area tonight.

*Residents and visitors along Northern Luzon & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of LUPIT (RAMIL).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: LUPIT is expected to decelerate as it tracks WSW w/in the next 12 to 24 hours. Its wind speed will slightly strengthen back to Category 2 (165 kph) as it moves closer to the coast of Northeastern Luzon due to improved atmospheric conditions (warm ocean moisture & unstable air). The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LUPIT making landfall over the northern coast of Cagayan on Saturday morning, Oct 24 approx. 7-8AM - crossing Apayao and Ilocos Norte throughout Saturday. The core shall be off Laoag City on Sunday morning Oct 25 at around 7-8 AM. By Monday morning, Oct 26, LUPIT shall be moving slowly across the South China Sea, away from Ilocos Norte. *Alternate Forecast Scenario: There is a possibility that LUPIT might track Westward passing thru the Balintang Channel and spare Cagayan & Ilocos Norte from a direct hit, then move NW to Northward into Taiwan or SE China. This scenario is likely as some models deviates from the abovementioned forecast. The probability of this alternate forecast remains high, so a possible shift can happen. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered. So please stay tuned.

+ Effects: LUPIT's circulation remains organized & large with a cloud-filled EYE. The outer & inner rain bands remains at sea...not yet affecting any major islands at this time, however, LUPIT may begin to affect Extreme Northern Luzon beginning tonight - if the forecast movement continues...deteriorating weather conditions can be expected within the next 48 to 72 hours. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 up to 200 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated accumulations of 400 mm or more (very heavy to extreme rain) near the center of LUPIT particularly along its projected path. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Extreme Northern Luzon especially along Cagayan, Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Island Group, Isabela & Ilocos Norte. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Northern Luzon & Taiwan.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Wed October 21 2009
Location of Eye: 19.8º N Lat 126.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 485 km (262 nm) ESE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 2: 540 km (290 nm) ENE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 3: 570 km (307 nm) ENE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 4: 585 km (315 nm) NE of Ilagan City
Distance 5: 620 km (335 nm) NE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 6: 655 km (355 nm) ENE of Laoag City
Distance 7: 780 km (420 nm) NNE of Naga City
Distance 8: 820 km (443 nm) NE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 150 kph (80 kts) near the Eye
Peak Wind Gusts: 185 kph (100 kts)
Rainbands' Rain Rate: 2 to 30 mm/hr (.02 to 1.2 in/hr) new!
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 4-5 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 963 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WSW @ 15 kph (08 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Cagayan-Ilocos Norte
Size (in Diameter): 890 km (480 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 33 ft (10.0 m)
T2K TrackMap #020 (for Public): 12 PM PST Wed Oct 21
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 8 AM Wed Oct 21
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 AM Wed Oct 21
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Image: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Image: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNAL # THREE (3) click to know meaning
Now In Effect: NORTHERN CAGAYAN & CALAYAN-BABUYAN-BATANES ISLAND GROUP.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2) click to know meaning
Now In Effect: ILOCOS NORTE, APAYAO, REST OF CAGAYAN, ABRA, KALINGA, & ISABELA.

The above areas will experience stormy weather beginning tonight or tomorrow (with winds not exceeding 100 kph for #02 and more than 100 kph for #03). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning
In Effect: ILOCOS SUR, MT. PROVINCE, IFUGAO, BENGUET, LA UNION, NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO, AURORA, NORTHERN QUEZON, & POLILLO ISLANDS.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph beginning tonight or tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 3, 2 & 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves) that could reach a high of 5 feet or more.