TYPHOON PARMA [PEPENG/19W/0917]

PARMA (PEPENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 175 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 160 kph
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr

TYPHOON PARMA [PEPENG/19W/0917]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 018
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT)
Sat 03 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #022
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Typhoon PARMA (PEPENG) is now making landfall over Cagayan...weakened further.

*Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of PARMA.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: PARMA is expected to continue moving NW for the next 24 hours across Extreme Northern Luzon as it weakens further. The core shall be off the northern coast of Ilocos Norte by tomorrow morning Oct 04.The 3 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system recurving NE slowly and passing over the Batanes Group of Islands on Tuesday morning Oct 6. PARMA shall accelerate eastward, following the much stronger Typhoon MELOR which is heading towards Southern Japan. Please be aware that long-range forecast changes every now and then. Continued monitoring on this potential typhoon is a must for disaster preparedness agencies.

+ Effects: PARMA's main circulation is now over Northern Luzon...Its core is now making landfall over Cagayan...Typhoon conditions of winds not exceeding 200 kph can be expected along Isabela, Isabela and Apayao...while its inner (rain) bands spreading across the whole of Northern Luzon - where stormy conditions w/ winds not exceeding 100 kph. Central Luzon will be under PARMA's outer (feeder) bands), where moderate to heavy rains w/ winds not exceeding 60 kph can be expected. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 100 up to 200 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along PARMA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 400 mm (very heavy rain) near the center of PARMA. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Extreme Northern Luzon. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

(1) Typhoon MELOR (20W) intensifying as it approaches the northernmost part of Marianas. Click here to view latest T2K advisory.

Kindly click the cool T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued every afternoon, and shows various tropical systems roaming across the South China Sea and the Western Pacific Ocean.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Sat October 03 2009
Location of Eye: 17.7º N Lat 122.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 55 km (30 nm) East of Tuguegarao City
Distance 2: 100 km (55 nm) SSE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 3: 180 km (97 nm) ESE of Laoag City
Distance 4: 300 km (160 nm) South of Basco, Batanes
Distance 5: 365 km (197 nm) NNE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 165 kph (90 kts) near the eye
Peak Wind Gusts: 205 kph (110 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 6-8 feet [1.8-2.6 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: NW @ 22 kph (12 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Cagayan-Apayao
Size (in Diameter): 610 km (330 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 32 ft (9.7 m)
T2K TrackMap #06 (for Public): 6 AM PST Sat Oct 03-->
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 00 GMT Fri Oct 02
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 AM Sat Oct 03
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
EORC-JAXA TRMM Viewer: Real-Time Rainrate Image new!
NASA-JAXA TMI Viewer: Latest Rainrate Image
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNAL # THREE (3) click to know meaning
Now In Effect: BATANES-CALAYAN-BABUYAN ISLANDS, CAGAYAN, ILOCOS NORTE, ABRA, APAYAO, KALINGA & NORTHERN ISABELA.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2) click to know meaning
Now In Effect: REST OF ISABELA, ILOCOS SUR, MT. PROVINCE, & IFUGAO.

The above areas will experience stormy weather today (with winds not exceeding 100 kph for #02 and more than 100 kph for #03).

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning
Now In Effect: LA UNION, BENGUET, NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO, AURORA, NUEVA ECIJA & EASTERN PANGASINAN.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 1, 2 & 3 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides.