TROPICAL STORM PARMA [PEPENG/19W/0917]

PARMA (PEPENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 105 kph
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM PARMA [PEPENG/19W/0917]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 025
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT)
Mon 05 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #031
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Tropical Storm PARMA (PEPENG) still quasi-stationary near the coast of Ilocos...may track southward later as it interacts with Super Typhoon MELOR (QUEDAN).

*Residents and visitors along Luzon, Southern China & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of PARMA.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: PARMA is expected to drift slowly towards Western Luzon for the next 2 to 3 days as it interacts with Super Typhoon MELOR (QUEDAN). The 3 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows PARMA turning SSW to SW-ward across the South China Sea. Rains and winds expected across portions of Luzon particularly Ilocos provinces down to Zambales.

+ Effects: PARMA's main circulation has re-strengthened with its core slowly reorganizing...Stormy conditions w/ winds not exceeding 100 kph can still be expected along Ilocos Norte...while its inner (rain) bands spreading across Ilocos Sur, Abra, Kalinga, Apayao, Calayan Island Group, and Western Cagayan - where stormy conditions w/ winds not exceeding 75 kph can be expected today. Central Luzon and rest of Northern Luzon will remain under PARMA's outer (feeder) bands), where light to moderate rains w/ winds not exceeding 60 kph can be expected today. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 100 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along PARMA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 200 mm (very heavy rain) near the center of PARMA. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Extreme Northwestern Luzon. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

(1) Super Typhoon MELOR (QUEDAN) now within PAR, may begin to recurve towards Southern Japan soon. Click here to view latest T2K advisory.

Kindly click the cool T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued every afternoon, and shows various tropical systems roaming across the South China Sea and the Western Pacific Ocean.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Sun October 04 2009
Location of Center: 20.0º N Lat 119.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 245 km (133 nm) WSW of Basco, Batanes
Distance 2: 205 km (110 nm) WNW of Calayan Is.
Distance 3: 220 km (120 nm) NNW of Laoag City
Distance 4: 275 km (150 nm) NNW of Vigan City
Distance 5: 400 km (215 nm) NNW of Baguio City
Distance 6: 450 km (245 nm) NNW of Dagupan City
Distance 7: 620 km (335 nm) NNW of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 100 kph (55 kts) near the eye
Peak Wind Gusts: 130 kph (70 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: Quasi-Stationary
Projected Area of Impact: Western Coast of Luzon
Size (in Diameter): 740 km (400 nm) / Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 30 ft (9.1 m)
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 2 PM Mon Oct 5
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 5 PM Mon Oct 4
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
EORC-JAXA TRMM Viewer: Real-Time Rainrate Image
NASA-JAXA TMI Viewer: Latest Rainrate Image
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNAL # THREE (3) click to know meaning
Now In Effect:ILOCOS NORTE.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2) click to know meaning
Now In Effect: ILOCOS SUR, ABRA, APAYAO, BATANES GROUP, NORTHERN CAGAYAN, CALAYAN & BABUYAN ISLAND GROUP.

The above areas will experience stormy weather tonight and tomorrow (with winds not exceeding 100 kph for #02 and more than 100 kph for #03). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning
Now In Effect: LA UNION, BENGUET, MOUNTAIN PROVINCE, IFUGAO, KALINGA, & REST OF CAGAYAN.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph tonight and tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 2 & 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides.