TYPHOON MELOR [20W/0918]

MELOR (QUEDAN) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 215 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 175 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 175 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr

TYPHOON MELOR [20W/0918]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 014
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT)
Tue 06 October 2009
Source: JTWC WARNING #029
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Typhoon MELOR (QUEDAN) continues to lose strength...now exiting the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

*Residents and visitors along the Okinawa, Ryukyus and Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of MELOR (20W).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: MELOR is expected to complete recurvature w/ in the next 12 to 24 hours while it continues to decay. The 2 to 3-day Medium-Range Forecast shows MELOR accelerating fast as it enters the mid-latitude westerlies...bringing MELOR towards Southern Honshu. The core shall make landfall over Southern Honshu on early Thursday morning, Oct 08...passing north of Tokyo on Thursday afternoon. MELOR shall become Extratropical on Friday Oct 9 just south of Kuril Island Group.

+ Effects: MELOR's circulation remains impressive as the system continues to initiate EyeWall Replacement Cycle (ERC). This powerful system has started to affect Okinawa and Ryukyu Island Group, with the passage of its outer rainbands - incresing winds w/ light to moderate rains can be expected over the mentioned areas. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 100 up to 200 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along MELOR's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of more than 400 mm (extreme rain) near the center or along the Eyewall of this powerful Typhoon.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Tue October 06 2009
Location of Eye: 25.1º N Lat 131.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 345 km (185 nm) SE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 2: 1,070 km (578 nm) NE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 3: 955 km (515 nm) East of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 4: 1,280 km (690 nm) NE of TS PARMA (PEPENG)
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 215 kph (115 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 260 kph (140 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Category 4
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 13-18 feet [4.0-5.5 m]
Central Pressure: 937 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: North @ 26 kph (14 kts)
General Direction: Southern Japan
Size (in Diameter): 890 km (480 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 38 ft (11.5 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PST Tue Oct 06
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 2 PM Tue Oct 6
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 PM Tue Oct 6
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 3-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop