TYPHOON LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]

LUPIT (RAMIL) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 125 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 120 kph

TYPHOON LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 009
6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT)
Fri 16 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #012
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Typhoon LUPIT (RAMIL) has slowed down and rapidly intensified while over the Philippine Sea...now at Category 2.

*Residents and visitors along Northern & Central Luzon should closely monitor the progress of LUPIT (RAMIL).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: LUPIT is expected to reduce its forward speed from 20 kph to just 5 kph w/ in the next 24 to 48. A passing mid-level low pressure (trough) is expected to weaken the steering ridge north of LUPIT, thus its slow movement. The 3 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LUPIT resuming its WNW or Westward track as a new High Pressure Steering Ridge off Taiwan develops, driving LUPIT towards Extreme Northern Luzon between Monday to Thursday (Oct 19-22). *Initial Impact Forecast (IIF): LUPIT will make landfall over Northern Cagayan on Wednesday morning, Oct 21 and exit thru Ilocos Norte Wednesday evening (Oct 22) - a track similar to the recent Typhoon PARMA (PEPENG). Please be reminded that the IIF changes every 6 hours, so a shift to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

+ Effects: LUPIT's circulation continues to organize while at sea, and is now a large-sized system, about 815 km. in diameter. Its southern outer feeder bands now expected to leave Ulithi and Yap Islands - where improving weather conditions can be expected today. This typhoon is not yet affecting Luzon, however, if the forecast track pushes through, deteriorating weathern conditions can be expected beginning Monday. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 up to 200 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 400 mm (very heavy to extreme rain) near the center of LUPIT particularly along its projected path.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Sat October 17 2009
Location of Eye: 14.9º N Lat 132.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 885 km (478 nm) ENE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 935 km (505 nm) ENE of Gota, Caramoan
Distance 3: 1,000 km (540 nm) ENE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 4: 1,025 km (553 nm) ENE of Daet, Cam Norte
Distance 5: 1,115 km (602 nm) ESE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 6: 1,150 km (620 nm) East of Infanta, Quezon
Distance 7: 1,215 km (655 nm) East of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 160 kph (85 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 195 kph (105 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 6-8 feet [1.8-2.6 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 959 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WNW @ 20 kph (11 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Extreme Northern Luzon
Size (in Diameter): 815 km (440 nm) / Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 18 ft (5.4 m)
T2K TrackMap #007 (for Public): 6 AM PST Sat Oct 17
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 2 AM Sat Oct 17
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 AM Sat Oct 17
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Image: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Image: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop