TROPICAL STORM 23W [UNNAMED]

23W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM 23W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 003
6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT)
Tue 27 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / NWS-GUAM DOPPLER RADAR FIX
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

23W (UNNAMED) strengthened into a Tropical Storm...now passing close to Guam, as depicted on Andersen Air Base' Doppler Radar.

*Residents and visitors along the Mariana Islands should closely monitor the progress of 23W (UNNAMED).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: 23W is expected to continue tracking WNW within the next 2 days...under the influence of the High Pressure Steering Ridge north of it...pushing 23W into the Philippine Sea. It will reach Typhoon intensity on Wednesday afternoon Oct 28. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system entering the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Thursday morning Oct 29...will be approaching the eastern coast of Luzon on Saturday, Oct 31 as a Category 4 Typhoon with winds of 215 kph...making landfall near Baler, Aurora on Saturday afternoon, Oct 31 and crossing Central Luzon via Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Pampanga and Zambales during the night...and exiting the South China Sea on All Saint's Day, November 01. *Alternate Forecast Scenario (AFS): The latest ECMWF Extended Forecast issued at 8PM last night, showed the system passing very close to Camarines Norte, passing over Polillo Island and traversing Northern Quezon, Rizal and Metro Manila beginning Saturday evening until Sunday morning (Oct 30-Nov 01). This AFS track may happen if the High Pressure Steering Ridge off SE China and Taiwan strengthens more. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

+ Effects: 23W's developing circulation continues to consolidate and improve. Its rainbands lashing the Marianas including Guam...Gale-force winds w/ light, moderate to heavy rains can be expected across these islands. 06 to 12-hr total rainfall amounts of 2 to 50 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of 60 to 80 mm (moderate to heavy rain) near the center of 23W especially to the north. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Tue October 27 2009
Location of Center: 14.1º N Lat 145.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 125 km (68 nm) ENE of Guam, CNMI
Distance 2: 1,160 km (628 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 3: 2,310 km (1,248 nm) East of Bicol Region, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
06 to 12-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 60-80 mm
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WNW @ 28 kph (15 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Mariana Islands
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PST tue Oct 27
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 2 AM Tue Oct 27
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop