Tropical Storm "RAMIL" continues to move farther away from the country

LUPIT (RAMIL) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 100 kph

TROPICAL STORM LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 033
6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT)
Sun 25 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #044
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Tropical Storm LUPIT (RAMIL) gained more strength as it accelerates away from the Philippines...approaching Okinawa and the Ryukyus (Southern Islands of Japan).

*Residents and visitors along Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands & Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of LUPIT (RAMIL).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: LUPIT is expected to continue tracking NE-ward fast towards the Ryukyus and shall exit PAR this afternoon. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LUPIT weakening as it becomes an Extratropical (Middle-Latitude) Cyclone tomorrow afternoon. Complete transition into Extratropical will be on Wednesday Oct 28. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

+ Effects: LUPIT's circulation has slightly improved as it accelerates NE-ward. Rainbands continues spreading into Okinawa and the Ryukyus...rains and winds of not in excess of 100 kph can be expected. 24-hr total rainfall amounts of 25 to 75 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of 100 to 200 mm (very heavy rain) near the center of LUPIT especially along the northern part. Click here to view the latest eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Southern Japan & Taiwan.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

Tropical Disturbance 95W [LPA], a new one has been observed forming over the Pacific Ocean and is moving West to WNW in the direction of the Southern Marianas. This system may likely become a Tropical Cyclone w/in the next 36 to 48 hours...currently located near 1at 11.2N lon 156.5E...or about 1,295 km ESE of Guam...2,345 km East of P.A.R...3,370 km East of Visayas. It has 1-min. windspeeds of 30 kph near the center. The latest (12Z Oct 24) European Forecast Guidance Model (ECMWF, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts), which is the better and most-reliable guidance model this 2009 - shows this system heading westward (aka. "Straight-Runner") into the Philippine Sea, early next week, becoming a dangerous typhoon as it approaches Luzon, Philippines on Thursday-Friday, October 29-30 and striking Northern Bicol-NCR-Central Luzon Area on Halloween Weekend, Saturday-Sunday (Oct 31 to Nov 01). Please take note that this model changes every 12 hours, so a shift to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

Kindly click the T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued every afternoon, and shows various tropical systems roaming across the South China Sea and the Western Pacific Ocean.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Sun October 25 2009
Location of Center: 24.1º N Lat 127.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 270 km (145 nm) SSE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 2: 595 km (320 nm) ESE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 3: 700 km (378 nm) NE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 110 kph (60 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 140 kph (75 kts)
24-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 100-200 mm new!
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 978 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: NE @ 24 kph (13 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands
Size (in Diameter): 795 km (430 nm) / Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 29 ft (8.8 m)
T2K TrackMap #028 (for Public): 6 PM PST Sat Oct 24
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 2 AM Sun Oct 25
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 AM Sun Oct 25
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop