TROPICAL STORM PARMA [PEPENG/19W/0917]

PARMA (PEPENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 kph
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM PARMA [PEPENG/19W/0917]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 029
6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT)
Wed 07 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #037
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Tropical Storm PARMA (PEPENG) losing strength as it drifts slowly SSE across the mountains of Apayao. Widespread rains w/ possible flooding expected.

*Residents and visitors along Northern Luzon should closely monitor the progress of PARMA.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: PARMA is expected to continue moving SE-ward to SSE crossing Kalinga today until tomorrow...shall turn West across Abra by tomorrow afternoon as a dissipating Depression. It shall be off Ilocos Sur near Vigan City early Friday morning before moving back into the South China Sea. The 3 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows PARMA accelerating Westward to WNW and intensifying this weekend across the South China Sea.

+ Effects: PARMA's main circulation has lost much of its organization while over land...will continue to dump excessive amounts of rainfall across most of Northern Luzon, where widespread flooding is common. If it stays more overland, PARMA shall lose its storm status and be downgraded into a TD or worse even dissipates over the Mountains of Abra. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 up to 200 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along PARMA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 300 mm (very heavy rain) near the center of PARMA or along mountains slopes. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

(1) Typhoon MELOR (QUEDAN) shall start to accelerate NE-ward towards Southern Japan today. Click here to view latest T2K advisory.

Kindly click the cool T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued every afternoon, and shows various tropical systems roaming across the South China Sea and the Western Pacific Ocean.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Wed October 07 2009
Location of Center: 18.0º N Lat 121.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 65 km (35 nm) ESE of Laoag City
Distance 2: 60 km (33 nm) SW of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 3: 95 km (50 nm) NE of Vigan City
Distance 4: 190 km (103 nm) NNE of Baguio City
Distance 5: 240 km (130 nm) NNE of Dagupan City
Distance 6: 380 km (205 nm) North of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph (40 kts) near the eye
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: SSE @ 07 kph (04 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Kalinga-Abra Area
Size (in Diameter): 610 km (330 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): -- ft (-.- m)
T2K TrackMap #014 (for Public): 6 AM PST Wed Oct 07
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 2 AM Wed Oct 7
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 5 AM Wed Oct 7
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
EORC-JAXA TRMM Viewer: Real-Time Rainrate Image
NASA-JAXA TMI Viewer: Latest Rainrate Image
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2) click to know meaning
In Effect: BATANES, CAGAYAN, BABUYAN & CALAYAN ISLAND GROUP, ILOCOS NORTE, APAYAO, ABRA, KALINGA, ILOCOS SUR & MOUNTAIN PROVINCE.

The above areas will experience stormy weather today (with winds not exceeding 100 kph). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning
In Effect: LA UNION, BENGUET, IFUGAO, ISABELA, PANGASINAN, NUEVA VIZCAYA, & QUIRINO.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 2 & 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides.