TROPICAL STORM PARMA [PEPENG/19W/0917]

PARMA (PEPENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 105 kph
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM PARMA [PEPENG/19W/0917]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 027
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT)
Tue 06 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #034
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Tropical Storm PARMA (PEPENG) approaching the western & northern coastlines of Ilocos Norte...Deteriorating weather condtions expected along Extreme Northern Luzon...Direct Cyclone Interaction (aka. Fujiwhara Effect) continues w/ Typhoon MELOR (QUEDAN).

*Residents and visitors along Northern Luzon & Southern China should closely monitor the progress of PARMA.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: PARMA is expected to continue drifting south slowly towards the coast of Ilocos Norte for the next 2 to 3 days. The 3 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows PARMA turning WSW to westward across the South China Sea on Friday Oct 9. Stormy weather expected across portions of NW Luzon particularly Ilocos provinces down to La Union, Pangasinan and Zambales. *Alternate Forecast Scenario: There are some models showing PARMA making landfall along Ilocos Norte and Ilocos Sur, traversing La Union and Benguet before heading west across Pangasinan between tonight until Thursday, Oct 8. This scenario cannot be ruled out at this time.

+ Effects: PARMA's main circulation remains slightly organized with its core reforming just off the coast of Ilocos Norte...Stormy conditions w/ winds not exceeding 130 kph can be expected along Ilocos Provinces and the rest of Extreme Northern Luzon...while its inner (rain) bands are now spreading across other parts of Northern Luzon - where deteriorating weather conditions w/ winds not exceeding 85 kph can be expected today. Northern parts of Central Luzon will be under PARMA's outer (feeder) bands), where cloudy skies, light to moderate rains w/ winds not exceeding 60 kph can be expected. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 100 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along PARMA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 200 mm (very heavy rain) near the center of PARMA. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Extreme NW Luzon. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

(1) Super Typhoon MELOR (QUEDAN) beginning to recurve towards Southern Japan...expected to exit PAR later tonight. Click here to view latest T2K advisory.

Kindly click the cool T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued every afternoon, and shows various tropical systems roaming across the South China Sea and the Western Pacific Ocean.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Tue October 06 2009
Location of Center: 19.2º N Lat 120.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 115 km (63 nm) NNW of Laoag City
Distance 2: 125 km (67 nm) West of Calayan Is.
Distance 3: 180 km (97 nm) North of Vigan City
Distance 4: 230 km (125 nm) SW of Basco, Batanes
Distance 5: 315 km (170 nm) NNW of Baguio City
Distance 6: 355 km (190 nm) North of Dagupan City
Distance 7: 520 km (280 nm) NNW of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 100 kph (55 kts) near the eye
Peak Wind Gusts: 130 kph (70 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: SSE @ 13 kph (07 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Ilocos Coastline
Size (in Diameter): 760 km (410 nm) / Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 31 ft (9.4 m)
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 8 AM Tue Oct 6
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 11 AM Tue Oct 6
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
EORC-JAXA TRMM Viewer: Real-Time Rainrate Image
NASA-JAXA TMI Viewer: Latest Rainrate Image
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNAL # THREE (3) click to know meaning
Now In Effect: ILOCOS NORTE, NORTHERN CAGAYAN, BABUYAN & CALAYAN ISLAND GROUP, & APAYAO.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2) click to know meaning
Now In Effect: REST OF CAGAYAN, ILOCOS SUR, ABRA, BATANES GROUP, & KALINGA.

The above areas will experience stormy weather today (with winds not exceeding 100 kph for #02 and more than 100 kph for #03). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning
Now In Effect: LA UNION, PANGASINAN, BENGUET, MOUNTAIN PROVINCE, IFUGAO, & ISABELA.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 3, 2 & 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides.