Tropical Disturbance 95W [LPA] is now the subject of a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA)

Tropical Disturbance 95W [LPA] is now the subject of a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA) based on JTWC's analysis...will developed into a Tropical Depression within the next 06 to 24 housr. Currently located near 1at 12.5N lon 152.3E...or about 820 km ESE of Guam...1,875 km East of P.A.R...2,910 km East of Visayas. It has 1-min. windspeeds of 40 kph near the center. The latest (8PM Oct 25) European Forecast Guidance Model (ECMWF, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts), which is the better and most-reliable guidance model this 2009 - continues to show this system heading westward quickly (aka. "Straight-Runner" track) into the Philippine Sea this week. Becoming a dangerous typhoon as it approaches Luzon, Philippines on Thursday, October 29 and striking Bicol Region-Southern Tagalog-NCR Area on Halloween Weekend, Friday-Saturday (Oct 30 to 31). Please take note that this model changes every 12 hours, so a shift to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.