SUPER TYPHOON LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]

LUPIT (RAMIL) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 240 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 230 kph
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 205 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 195 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 185 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 180 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 175 km/hr

SUPER TYPHOON LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 017
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT)
Mon 19 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #022
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Super Typhoon LUPIT (RAMIL) weakens a bit as it turns WNW...still an extremely dangerous Category 4 system w/ winds of 240 km/hr...threat to Northern Luzon continues.

*Residents and visitors along the Island of Luzon (Northern Philippines) should closely monitor the progress of LUPIT (RAMIL).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: LUPIT is expected to start accelerating and turning more westerly w/in the next 12 to 24 hours. Its wind speed will continue to decrease as it moves closer to Northern Luzon. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LUPIT moving into a WSW direction, as the High Pressure Steering Ridge building off China strengthens and extends across Ryukyu & Okinawan Islands. This ridge will steer LUPIT into Extreme Northern Luzon...making landfall over Northern Cagayan between 2 to 4 PM on Thursday Oct 22...passing directly or very close to Aparri. The core (eye & eyewall) of LUPIT shall cross Abra, Kalinga and exit over Ilocos Sur Thursday evening and shall be over the South China Sea Friday, Oct 23 - turning West to WNW towards Hainan Island-Vietnam Area on Saturday Oct 24. *Alternate Forecast Scenario: There is a possibility that LUPIT might track more WSW-ward earlier than expected with a strike across the southern part of Northern Luzon thru Isabela Province or Southern Cagayan. This scenario is likely if the high pressure steering ridge located off Eastern China strengthens more and dig deeper southward. The probability of this alternate forecast still remains low. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a shift to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

+ Effects: LUPIT's large circulation continues to exhibit impressive convective bands in all quadrants, however, the the EYE has decreased to just 35 km from 55 km. Its outer & inner rain bands remains at sea...not affecting any major islands at this time. LUPIT may begin to affect Northern Luzon beginning late Wednesday (Oct 21) - if the forecast movement continues, thus deteriorating weather conditions can be expected. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 up to 200 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated accumulations of 400 mm or more (very heavy to extreme rain) near the center of LUPIT particularly along its projected path.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Mon October 19 2009
Location of Eye: 19.2º N Lat 132.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 1,100 km (620 nm) NE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 1,130 km (610 nm) ESE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 3: 1,170 km (632 nm) ENE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 4: 1,170 km (632 nm) ENE of Ilagan City
Distance 5: 1,170 km (632 nm) ENE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 6: 1,175 km (635 nm) ENE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 7: 1,190 km (643 nm) NE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 8: 1,335 km (720 nm) NE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 240 kph (130 kts) near the Eye
Peak Wind Gusts: 295 kph (160 kts)
Rainbands' Rain Rate: 2 to 30 mm/hr (.02 to 1.2 in/hr) new!
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 4
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 13-18 feet [4.0-5.5 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 926 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WNW @ 19 kph (10 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Extreme Northern Luzon
Size (in Diameter): 890 km (480 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 30 ft (9.1 m)
T2K TrackMap #015 (for Public): 6 PM PST Mon Oct 19
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 2 PM Mon Oct 19
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 PM Mon Oct 19
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Image: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Image: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop