TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W [UNNAMED]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 001 [INITIAL]
2:00 PM PST (06:00 GMT)
Mon 26 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #001
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

The strong tropical disturbance (LPA) over Eastern Micronesia has strengthened into Tropical Depression 23W (UNNAMED)...accelerating WNW towards the Marianas...may pose a threat to the Philippines in the coming days.

*Residents and visitors along the Mariana Islands should closely monitor the progress of 23W (UNNAMED).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: 23W is expected to quickly move more to the west within the next 2 days as the High Pressure Steering Ridge north of it strengthens...pushing 23W into the Philippine Sea. It shall attain Tropical Storm status later tonight. The 3 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system entering the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Thursday morning Oct 29, as a Category 1 Typhoon with winds of 140 kph...will be approaching the northern coast of Bicol Region on Saturday, Oct 31 as a Category 3 Typhoon with winds of 185 kph. *Initial Impact Forecast (IIF):The latest ECMWF 7-day extended forecast shows the system crossing Northern Bicol, Southern Tagalog Provinces including Metro Manila on Friday or Saturday (Oct 30-31). Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

+ Effects: 23W's developing circulation continues to consolidate. Its rainbands expected to reach Marianas including Guam later tonight...Gale-force winds w/ rains can be expected.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date: 2:00 PM PST Mon October 26 2009
Location of Center: 13.2º N Lat 149.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 550 km (297 nm) East of Guam, CNMI
Distance 2: 1,610 km (870 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 3: 2,790 km (1,507 nm) East of Bicol Region, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
24-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): N/A
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WNW @ 26 kph (14 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Mariana Islands
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 ft (3.0 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PST Mon Oct 26
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 8 AM Mon Oct 26
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop