TROPICAL DEPRESSION PARMA [PEPENG/19W/0917]

PARMA (PEPENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 kph
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr

TROPICAL DEPRESSION PARMA [PEPENG/19W/0917]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 033
2:00 PM PST (06:00 GMT) Thu 08 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC FIX
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

PARMA (PEPENG) downgraded into a Tropical Depression as it remains stationary along the east coast of Cagayan.

*Residents and visitors along Northern Luzon should closely monitor the progress of PARMA.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: PARMA is expected to start moving slowly westward within the next 24 hours and cross Cagayan again, but may weaken into a TD due to land influence. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows PARMA that after crossing Extreme Northern Luzon, it shall regain TS strength while over the South China Sea on Sunday, Oct 11. It shall be approaching the east coast of Hainan Island by early Tuesday morning Oct 13, wil forecast wind velocity of 75 kph.

+ Effects: PARMA's loose and weak circulation still trying to reform while off the east coast of Cagayan-Isabela...will continue to dump excessive amounts of rainfall across most of Northern Luzon, where possible flooding is likely...its outer bands has been expanding southward - bringing windy conditions (of up to 50 kph) w/ occasional light rains across Central & Southern Luzon including Bicol and Metro Manila. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 100 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along PARMA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 200 mm (very heavy rain) near the center of PARMA or along mountains slopes. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

(1) Tropical Storm MELOR (QUEDAN) is now transforming into an Extratropical Cyclone as it moved across the main Japanese island Honshu. Click here to view latest T2K advisory.

(2) Strong Tropical Disturbance 92W [LPA] organizing WNW of Guam, may become a TD soon. Watch for more information on this disturbance as new data arrives. Kindly click the cool T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued every afternoon, and shows various tropical systems roaming across the South China Sea and the Western Pacific Ocean.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date: 2:00 PM PST Thu October 08 2009
Location of Center: 17.6º N Lat 122.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 85 km (45 nm) NE of Ilagan, Isabela
Distance 2: 85 km (45 nm) East of Tuguegarao City
Distance 3: 115 km (63 nm) SE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 4: 210 km (113 nm) ESE of Laoag City
Distance 5: 225 km (122 nm) East of Vigan City
Distance 6: 365 km (197 nm) NNE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: Quasi-Stationary
Projected Area of Impact: Cagayan-Apayao-Ilocos Norte
Size (in Diameter): 665 km (360 nm) / Avg/Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
T2K TrackMap #017 (for Public): 11 AM PST Thu Oct 08
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 8 AM Thu Oct 8
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 AM Thu Oct 8
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
EORC-JAXA TRMM Viewer: Real-Time Rainrate Image
NASA-JAXA TMI Viewer: Latest Rainrate Image
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning
In Effect: BATANES-CAGAYAN-BABUYAN ISLAND GROUP, CALAYAN, ISABELA, ILOCOS PROVINCES, APAYAO, ABRA, KALINGA, IFUGAO, MOUNTAIN PROVINCE, BENGUET, LA UNION, PANGASINAN, NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO & NORTHERN AURORA.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to ro