Tuesday, July 14, 2009

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH




A.
The strong tropical disturbance (LPA) over the Southern Philippine Sea, east of Northern Mindanao has strengthened into a Tropical Depression locally named as ISANG (91W)...drifting WNW...may threaten the coastal areas of Eastern Visayas and Bicol Region.



Forecast Outlook: ISANG is expected to continue developing as it tracks towards the WNW to NW across the warm waters of the Philippine Sea. The 2 to 3-day medium range forecast shows ISANG passing about 150 to 200 km. to the east of Bicol Region on Thursday July 16 and shall be about 200 km. to the east of Cagayan on Friday July 17. This system is likely to reach Tropical Storm strength tomorrow.

Effects: ISANG's circulation remains disorganized but is expected to consolidate overnight until tomorrow. Its outer bands is expected to arrive over the eastern coast of Samar and Bicol Region late tomorrow...Light to Moderate to sometimes heavy rains with winds, squalls and thunderstorms can be expected along these bands.

Current SW Monsoon Intensity: WEAK >> Partly sunny to Cloudy skies w/ light to moderate occasional rains, thunderstorms, squalls and moderate SW winds not exceeding 35 kph can be expected over the following affected areas: MINDORO, SOUTHWESTERN LUZON, CALAMIAN GROUP, WESTERN PALAWAN AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN VISAYAS & MINDORO. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY


A. New Tropical Disturbance 94W (LPA) west of Luzon has been spotted organizing over the South China Sea...currently located near lat 16.2N lon 116.3E...or about 430 km West of Dagupan City...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph...almost stationary while embedded within the broad Monsoon Trough (ITCZ).

              

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