TROPICAL STORM PARMA [PRE-PEPENG/19W/0917]

PARMA (PEPENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM PARMA [PRE-PEPENG/19W/0917]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 004
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT)
Tue 29 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #006
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Tropical Storm 19W (PRE-PEPENG) is now internationally known as PARMA as it continues to gain strength...still on a WSW track...threatens the Republic of Palau.

*Residents and visitors along the islands of Yap, Ulithi and Palau should closely monitor the progress of PARMA (PRE-PEPENG).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: PARMA is expected to resume its Westward movement w/in the next 12 hours, before heading WNW-ward. It shall enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow afternoon or Thursday morning. The 3 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system turning more to the NW while over the Philippine Sea...becoming a Category 1 Typhoon when it is about 800 km. to the East of Bicol Region on Friday morning, Oct 02. PARMA shall be about 600 km to the east of the Batanes Group of Islands by Monday morning, October 4. Please be aware that long-range forecast changes every now and then. Continued monitoring on this potential typhoon is a must for disaster preparedness agencies.

+ Effects: PARMA's circulation continues to improve with expanding spiral outer bands on all quadrants except the southern portion...its western outer rainbands continues to spread across Ulithi-Yap Islands and Palau Island. Passing rains, squalls, thunderstorms w/ gale-force winds may be expected along the outer bands. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 25 up to 50 mm can be expected along PARMA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 100 mm near the center of this storm.

+ Current SW Monsoon Intensity: WEAK >> Light southwesterly winds not in excess of 35 kph with occasional widespread showers, squalls (subasko) & thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: BICOL REGION, SOUTHERN LUZON, MINDORO, BORACAY, MASBATE, PALAWAN, & WESTERN VISAYAS. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

(1) Tropical Depression 18W (UNNAMED) located east of TS 19W (PRE-PEPENG) remains weak as it tracks WNW-ward passing just north of Chuuk Island. Click here to view the latest T2K advisory on this system.

(2) Typhoon KETSANA (ONDOY) to make landfall along Central Vietnam later this afternoon. Click here to view the latest T2K advisory on this system.

Kindly click the cool T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued everyday @ 2 PM PST (06 GMT) on various tropical systems roaming the Western Pacific Ocean.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Tue September 29 2009
Location of Center: 7.8º N Lat 139.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 210 km (112 nm) ESE of Yap, FSM
Distance 2: 465 km (250 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 3: 510 km (275 nm) ENE of Koror, Palau
Distance 4: 1,510 km (815 nm) ESE of Surigao City
Distance 5: 1,850 km (998 nm) SE of Metro Naga/CWC
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph (40 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WSW @ 28 kph (15 kts)
General Direction: Yap-Ulithi-Palau Area
Size (in Diameter): 185 km (100 nm) / Very Small
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
NWS-Guam TrackMap (for Public): 11 AM PST Tue Sep 29
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 00 GMT Tue Sep 29
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 AM Tue Sep 29
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop