TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONDOY [96W]

PRE-ONDOY (96W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 35 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 35 km/hr

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONDOY [96W]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 004
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT)
Thu 24 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Tropical Depression ONDOY (96W) intensifying as it drifts WSW across the Philippine Sea...developing outer rainbands approaching the Bicol Region.

*Residents and visitors along the Eastern Coast of Luzon and Bicol Region should closely monitor the progress of ONDOY.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: ONDOY is expected to continue consolidate and intensify and shall move West to WNW towards Luzon. The 3-day medium-range forecast shows the system becoming a strong tropical storm as it moves West to WNW. It shall be passing more or less 150 km north of Northern Bicol on Saturday morning Sep 26...approaching the coast of Aurora on Saturday morning Sep 27.

+ Effects: ONDOY's circulation has reorganized w/ its western outer (rain) bands now approaching the Bicol and Samar Provinces. Widespread moderate to heavy rains w/ increasing winds of up to 60 kph can be expected along the outer bands. Stormy conditions is possible if the system rapidly intensifies. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 150 mm can be expected along ONDOY's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 300 mm near the center of ONDOY along its thick rainbands. People living around the slopes of Mayon Volcano in Albay & of Bulusan Volcano in Sorsogon - especially along the areas where possible MUDFLOWS (LAHAR) FLOWS (mixture of volcanic mud and water) are located must stay alert as moderate to heavy rains associated by this system are likely to affect the area beginning today. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

+ Current SW Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Light to moderate southwesterly winds not in excess of 40 kph with occasional widespread rains or thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: METRO MANILA, CENTRAL & SOUTHERN LUZON, MASBATE, NORTHERN MINDANAO, PALAWAN AND REST OF VISAYAS. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Thu September 24 2009
Location of Center: 14.3� N Lat 129.1� E Lon
Distance 1: 525 km (290 nm) ENE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 570 km (308 nm) ENE of Sorsogon City
Distance 3: 575 km (310 nm) ENE of Gota Beach, Caramoan
Distance 4: 600 km (325 nm) ENE of Legazpi City
Distance 5: 640 km (345 nm) ENE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 6: 670 km (362 nm) East of Daet, Cam Norte
Distance 7: 800 km (432 nm) ESE of Infanta, Quezon
Distance 8: 820 km (443 nm) ESE of Baler, Aurora
Distance 9: 860 km (465 nm) ESE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Depression
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WSW @ 11 kph (06 kts)
General Direction: Eastern Luzon
Size (in Diameter): 500 km (270 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 ft (3.0 m)
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 12 PM PST Thu Sep 24
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time