SUPER TYPHOON CHOI-WAN [15W/0914]

CHOI-WAN (15W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 260 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 230 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 195 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 195 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 185 km/hr

SUPER TYPHOON CHOI-WAN [15W/0914]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 012
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Wed 16 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #017
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Super Typhoon CHOI-WAN (15W) maintained its Category 5 status as it continues moving farther away from the Marianas.

*Residents and visitors along the Iwo To and Chichi Jima Islands should closely monitor the progress of CHOI-WAN.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: CHOI-WAN is expected to begin turning to the NW within the next 12 to 24 hours and may reach its peak wind speed of 270 kph before starting to lose strength. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the howler recurving Northward to NNE-ward, passing about 110 km to the west of Iwo To on early Friday morning Sep 18 and about 170 km to the west of Chichi Jima on late Friday afternoon. CHOI-WAN shall continue to weaken as it accelerate further to the NE across a slightly cooler Northwestern Pacific Ocean.

+ Effects: CHOI-WAN's dangerous main core (eye & eyewall) remains over warm open seas...its inner bands no longer affecting Agrihan and Alamagan Islands...Outer bands still hovering across the rest of Northern Marianas - bringing rains and winds not in excess of 60 kph. Typhoon conditions w/ winds of more than 200 kph can be felt along the path of CHOI-WAN. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 250 mm can be expected along CHOI-WAN's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 400 mm near the center of CHOI-WAN or along its Eyewall. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of more than 18 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Northern Marianas. Catastrophic damage is likely on this type of storm surge.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Wed September 16 2009
Location of Eye: 18.9º N Lat 142.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 510 km (275 nm) NNW of Saipan, CNMI
Distance 2: 675 km (365 nm) SSE of Iwo To
Distance 3: 830 km (450 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 4: 865 km (468 nm) SE of Chichi Jima
Distance 5: 2,195 km (1,185 nm) ESE of Batanes, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 260 kph (140 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 315 kph (170 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Category 5
Coastal Storm Surge Height: >18 feet [>5.5 m]
Central Pressure: 918 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WNW @ 17 kph (09 kts)
General Direction: Iwo To-Chichi Jima Islands
Size (in Diameter): 1,155 km (625 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 39 ft (11.8 m)
NWS-Guam TrackMap (for Public): 1 PM PST Wed Sep 16
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 00Z Wed Sep 16
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 AM Wed Sep 16
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop