TYPHOON CHOI-WAN [15W/0914]

CHOI-WAN (15W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 205 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 180 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 175 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr

TYPHOON CHOI-WAN [15W/0914]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 019
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Fri 18 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #026
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Typhoon CHOI-WAN (15W) continues to accelerate northward...now passing due west of Iwo To.

*Residents and visitors along the Iwo To and Chichi Jima Island Group should closely monitor the progress of CHOI-WAN.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: CHOI-WAN is expected to recurve to the NNE to NE within the next 12 to 24 hours, passing about 230 km. west of Iwo To tonight and about 180 km. West of Chichi Jima before noontime tomorrow. It shall again regain Category 4 strength early tomorrow as soon as the developing, new eyewall replaces the old eyewall (Eyewall Replacement Cycle). Weakening trend of this typhoon will resume tomorrow afternoon. The 2 to 3-day Medium-Range Forecast shows the howler accelerating NE-ward...maintaining its decaying phase as it moves across the cooler seas of the Northwestern Pacific Ocean, just south of Kuril Islands or east of Japan and shall become Extratropical on Monday Sep 21.

+ Effects: CHOI-WAN's dangerous main core (eye & double eyewalls) remain over warm open seas of the NW Pacific...with its inner bands now spreading across Iwo To...while its outer bands affecting Chichi Jima. Tropical Storm force winds w/ rains is expected to be felt across Iwo To tonight...while rains and winds not exceeding 60 kph is likely along the outer bands. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 250 mm can be expected along CHOI-WAN's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 400 mm near the center of CHOI-WAN or along its Eyewall. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 9 to 12 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Iwo To and Chichi Jima Island Group. Extensive damage is likely on this type of storm surge.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Fri September 18 2009
Location of Eye: 24.8º N Lat 139.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 220 km (120 nm) West of Iwo To
Distance 2: 395 km (213 nm) WSW of Chichi Jima
Distance 3: 415 km (225 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 4: 1,130 km (610 nm) ESE of Okinawa, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 205 kph (110 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 250 kph (135 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Category 3
Coastal Storm Surge Height: >9-12 feet [2.7-3.9 m]
Central Pressure: 941 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: North @ 17 kph (09 kts)
General Direction: Iwo To-Chichi Jima Islands
Size (in Diameter): 1,000 km (540 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 40 ft (12.1 m)
NWS-Guam TrackMap (for Public): 5 PM PST Fri Sep 18
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 06Z Fri Sep 18
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 PM Fri Sep 18
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 3-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop