TYPHOON CHOI-WAN [15W/0914]

CHOI-WAN (15W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 125 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 120 km/hr

TYPHOON CHOI-WAN [15W/0914]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 007
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Mon 14 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #009
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Typhoon CHOI-WAN (15W) continues to pick-up strength over the warm seas of the Western Pacific Ocean...moving closer to Saipan and Northern Marianas.

*Residents and visitors along the Commonwealth of Northern Mariana Islands particularly Saipan and Pagan should closely monitor the progress of CHOI-WAN.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: CHOI-WAN is expected to track WNW and intensify further into a Category 2 Typhoon today and pass in between the islands of Saipan and Pagan tomorrow morning. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows CHOI-WAN continuing on its WNW motion, intensifying further to Category 4 w/ winds of 220 kph on Friday, Sep 18. CHOI-WAN shall start recurving to the North to NNE late Friday upon nearing the northeastern portion of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...It shall be about 250 km west of Iwo To on Saturday Sep 19.

+ Effects: CHOI-WAN's outer rainbands now spreading across the whole of Marianas, Guam-Rota, and portions of eastern Caroline Islands...its inner rainbands has started to affect Saipan and Pagan Islands. Moderate to heavy rains with winds of 60-100 kph w/ passing heavy squalls can be expected within the inner bands...turning later into Typhoon conditions. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 250 mm can be expected along CHOI-WAN's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 400 mm near the center of CHOI-WAN or along its Eyewall. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Mon September 14 2009
Location of Center: 15.6º N Lat 148.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 250 km (135 nm) East of Saipan, CNMI
Distance 2: 415 km (225 nm) NE of Guam, CNMI
Distance 3: 1,390 km (750 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 4: 2,755 km (1,488 nm) East of Luzon, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 140 kph (75 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 165 kph (90 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Category 1
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 4-5 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
Central Pressure: 967 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WNW @ 05 kph (03 kts)
General Direction: Saipan-Pagan Islands
Size (in Diameter): 775 km (420 nm) / Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 20 ft (6.0 m)
NWS-Guam TrackMap (for Public): 11 AM PST Mon Sep 14
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 00Z Mon Sep 14
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 11 AM Mon Sep 14
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop