SUPER TYPHOON CHOI-WAN [15W/0914]

CHOI-WAN (15W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 240 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 215 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 200 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 175 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 170 km/hr

SUPER TYPHOON CHOI-WAN [15W/0914]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 016
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Thu 17 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #022
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Super Typhoon CHOI-WAN (15W) down to Category 4...still tracking NW...may start to turn NNW to North later tonight.

*Residents and visitors along the Iwo To and Chichi Jima Island Group should closely monitor the progress of CHOI-WAN.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: CHOI-WAN is expected to turn NNW to Northward within the next 12 to 24 hours and weaken. The 2 to 4-day Long-Range Forecast shows the howler moving NNE to NE, passing about 165 km to the west of Iwo To tomorrow aftermoon Sep 18 and about 160 km to the west of Chichi Jima on early Saturday morning, Sep 19. CHOI-WAN shall maintain its waning phase as it accelerates further to the NNE to NE across cooler seas of the Northwestern Pacific Ocean, just south of Kuril Islands and shall become Extratropical on Monday Sep 21.

+ Effects: CHOI-WAN's dangerous main core (eye & eyewall) remains over warm open seas of the NW Pacific...with its outer bands now spreading across Iwo To...and across Chichi Jima later tonight. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 250 mm can be expected along CHOI-WAN's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 400 mm near the center of CHOI-WAN or along its Eyewall. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 13 to 18 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Iwo To and Chichi Jima Island Group. Extreme damage is likely on this type of storm surge.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Thu September 17 2009
Location of Eye: 21.4º N Lat 139.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 405 km (218 nm) SSW of Iwo To
Distance 2: 505 km (273 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 3: 660 km (355 nm) SSW of Chichi Jima
Distance 4: 1,860 km (1,005 nm) ENE of Batanes, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 240 kph (130 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 295 kph (160 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Category 4
Coastal Storm Surge Height: >13-18 feet [4.0-5.5 m]
Central Pressure: 926 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: NW @ 15 kph (08 kts)
General Direction: Iwo To-Chichi Jima Islands
Size (in Diameter): 1,000 km (540 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 41 ft (12.5 m)
NWS-Guam TrackMap (for Public): 5 PM PST Thu Sep 17
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 06Z Thu Sep 17
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 PM Thu Sep 17
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 4-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop