TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONDOY [96W]

ONDOY (96W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 35 km/hr

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONDOY [96W]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 005
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT)
Thu 24 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Tropical Depression ONDOY (96W) rapidly accelerates WSW closer to Northern Bicol...developing rainbands expected to spread across Bicol Region tonight until tomorrow.

*Residents and visitors along Luzon and Bicol Region should closely monitor the progress of ONDOY.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: ONDOY is expected to move WSW to Westward passing more or less 100 km. north of Bicol Region tomorrow morning. The 3-day medium-range forecast shows the system becoming a strong tropical storm as it crosses Central Luzon either tomorrow evening or Saturday morning and shall be over the South China Sea on Sunday Sep 27.

+ Effects: ONDOY's circulation continues to improve with its western and southern rainbands expected to affect Samar and Bicol Region including Quezon beginning tonight until tomorrow. Widespread moderate to heavy rains w/ increasing winds of up to 60 kph can be expected along the ONDOY's rainbands. Stormy conditions is possible if the system rapidly intensifies as it passes north of Bicol Region tomorrow. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 150 mm can be expected along ONDOY's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 300 mm near the center of ONDOY or along its thick rainbands. People living around the slopes of Mayon Volcano in Albay & of Bulusan Volcano in Sorsogon - especially along the areas where possible MUDFLOWS (LAHAR) FLOWS (mixture of volcanic mud and water) are located must stay alert as moderate to heavy rains associated by this system are likely to affect the area beginning today. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

+ Current SW Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Light to moderate southwesterly winds not in excess of 40 kph with occasional widespread rains or thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: METRO MANILA, CENTRAL & SOUTHERN LUZON, MASBATE, NORTHERN MINDANAO, PALAWAN AND REST OF VISAYAS. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Thu September 24 2009
Location of Center: 13.9� N Lat 127.2� E Lon
Distance 1: 315 km (170 nm) ENE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 360 km (195 nm) ENE of Sorsogon City
Distance 3: 365 km (200 nm) East of Gota Beach, Caramoan
Distance 4: 390 km (210 nm) ENE of Legazpi City
Distance 5: 435 km (235 nm) East of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 6: 465 km (252 nm) East of Daet, Cam Norte
Distance 7: 600 km (323 nm) ESE of Infanta, Quezon
Distance 8: 660 km (355 nm) ESE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Depression
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WSW @ 28 kph (15 kts)
General Direction: Northern Bicol
Size (in Diameter): 500 km (270 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 ft (3.0 m)
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 6 PM PST Thu Sep 24
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 04Z Thu Sep 24
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time