TYPHOON KETSANA [ONDOY/17W/0916]

KETSANA (ONDOY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 125 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 105 km/hr

TYPHOON KETSANA [ONDOY/17W/0916]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 018
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT)
Mon 28 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #013
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

KETSANA (ONDOY) becomes a Typhoon as it nears the coast of Vietnam.

*Residents and visitors along Hainan Island and Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of KETSANA (ONDOY).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: KETSANA is expected to continue moving West and shall reach the coast of Vietnam tomorrow morning. Landfall is likely along Central Vietnam near the City of Hue tomorrow late afternoon. The 2-day Short-Range Forecast shows the system dissipating rapidly along Laos on Wednesday Sep 30.

+ Effects: KETSANA's circulation has remained organized...its western outer rainbands is now spreading across Central & Southern Vietnam, Hainan Island and portions of Coastal Guangdong Province (China). Rains and winds not exceeding 60 kph may be expected along the outer bands of the storm. Typhoon conditions w/ winds of more than 100 kph can be expected along the path of CHOI-WAN especially over Central Vietnam beginning tonight. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 up to 200 mm can be expected along KETSANA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 400 mm near the center of the storm...or along mountain slopes. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Vietnam and Hainan Island. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Mon September 28 2009
Location of Center: 15.9º N Lat 112.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 370 km (200 nm) SE of Sanya, Hainan Is.
Distance 2: 405 km (220 nm) East of Da Nang, Vietnam
Distance 3: 475 km (257 nm) ESE of Hue, Vietnam
Distance 4: 750 km (405 nm) SSW of Hong Kong
Distance 5: 885 km (478 nm) West of Dagupan City, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 120 kph (65 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (80 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Category 1
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 4-5 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 11 kph (06 kts)
General Direction: Central Vietnam
Size (in Diameter): 1,480 km (800 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 23 ft (7.0 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PST Mon Sep 28
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 00 GMT Mon Sep 28
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 AM Mon Sep 28
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 2-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop