TYPHOON PARMA [PRE-PEPENG/19W/0917]

PARMA (PEPENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr

TYPHOON PARMA [PRE-PEPENG/19W/0917]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 007
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT)
Wed 30 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #010
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Tropical Storm PARMA (PRE-PEPENG) rapidly gained strength...now a Category 1 Typhoon...currently showing a pin-hole EYE as it prepares to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

*Residents and visitors along the east of coast of Luzon, Philippines should closely monitor the progress of PARMA.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: PARMA is expected to enter PAR late this afternoon and track NW'ly w/in the next 12 to 24 hours and intensify. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system turning more to the WNW across the Philippine Sea as it reaches Category 3 strength with winds of more than 200 kph and a distance of about 565 km. NE of Metro Naga/CWC. PARMA shall be about 230 km. NE of Batanes Islands on Monday, Oct 5 - as it approaches the SE coast of Taiwan. Please be aware that long-range forecast changes every now and then. Continued monitoring on this potential typhoon is a must for disaster preparedness agencies.

+ Effects: PARMA's circulation continues to improve...although small, its inner (rain) bands continues to spread west of Yap Island. Its western outer (feeder) bands continues to affect Palau Island and extends west across the Philippine Sea, east of Mindanao - passing rains, squalls, thunderstorms w/ gale-force winds may be expected along these bands. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 100 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along PARMA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 150 mm (heavy rain) near the center of this storm.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

(1) Tropical Storm 18W (UNNAMED) located ENE of TS PARMA, currently passing near Guam. Click here to view latest T2K advisory.

(2) Tropical Storm KETSANA (ONDOY) dissipating over Central Vietnam after making landfall over the area yesterday afternoon.

(3) Tropical Storm MELOR (20W) continues to intensify while moving WNW across the open waters of the Western Pacific...not yet affecting any major Pacific Islands. Click here to view latest T2K advisory.

Kindly click the cool T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued everyday @ 2 PM PST (06 GMT) on various tropical systems roaming the Western Pacific Ocean.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Wed September 30 2009
Location of Eye: 9.6º N Lat 135.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 90 km (48 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 2: 250 km (135 nm) West of Yap, FSM
Distance 3: 295 km (158 nm) NNE of Koror, Palau
Distance 4: 1,130 km (610 nm) East of Surigao City
Distance 5: 1,440 km (778 nm) ESE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 6: 1,690 km (912 nm) SE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 120 kph (65 kts) near the eye
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (80 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Category 1
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 4-5 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: NW @ 26 kph (14 kts)
General Direction: Philippine Sea-Taiwan Area
Size (in Diameter): 295 km (160 nm) / Small
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 18 ft (5.4 m)
NWS-Guam TrackMap (for Public): 11 AM PST Wed Sep 30
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 00 GMT Wed Sep 30
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 11 AM Wed Sep 30
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop