TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN [15W/0914]

CHOI-WAN (15W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN [15W/0914]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 005
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Sun 13 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #006
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Tropical Storm CHOI-WAN (15W) fast becoming a Typhoon...still heading West...endangers Saipan and Pagan Islands.

*Residents and visitors along the Commonwealth of Northern Mariana Islands particularly Saipan and Pagan should closely monitor the progress of CHOI-WAN.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: CHOI-WAN's forecast scenario remains unchanged...expected to continue moving on a westerly track and intensify further into a Category 1 Typhoon w/in in the next 12 to 24 hours. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows CHOI-WAN turning slightly WNW, passing in between Pagan and Saipan Islands tomorrow evening...becoming a Category 2 Typhoon w/ winds of 165 kph on Wednesday, Sep 16. CHOI-WAN shall continue gaining strength reaching Category 3 (185 kph) status as it approaches the northeastern portion of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Friday Sep 18.

+ Effects: CHOI-WAN's outer rainbands continues to move closer to Northern Marianas...expected to reach the island chain tonight. Rains, winds w/ passing squalls & thunderstorms can be expected over the commonwealth islands as the rainbands approaches. Typhoon conditions is forecast across the northern part of commonwealth particularly Saipan and Pagan tomorrow. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 250 mm can be expected along CHOI-WAN's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 350 mm near the center of CHOI-WAN or along its Eyewall. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Sun September 13 2009
Location of Center: 15.8º N Lat 148.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 340 km (185 nm) ENE of Saipan, CNMI
Distance 2: 500 km (270 nm) NE of Guam, CNMI
Distance 3: 1,475 km (797 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 4: 2,850 km (1,540 nm) East of Luzon, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 100 kph (55 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 130 kph (70 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 15 kph (08 kts)
General Direction: Saipan-Pagan Islands
Size (in Diameter): 925 km (500 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 15 ft (4.5 m)
NWS-Guam TrackMap (for Public): 5 PM PST Sun Sep 13
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 06Z Sun Sep 13
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 PM Sun Sep 13
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop