TROPICAL STORM KETSANA [ONDOY/17W/0916]

KETSANA (ONDOY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM KETSANA [ONDOY/17W/0916]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 013
12:00 AM PST (16:00 GMT) Sun 27 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #007
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Tropical Storm KETSANA (ONDOY) has quickly moved out of Central Luzon and is now along the coast of Zambales...currently gaining strength. Its heavy rainbands is no longer affecting Metro Manila.

*Residents and visitors along Hainan Island and Northern Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of KETSANA (ONDOY).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: KETSANA is expected to continue to move on a Westerly track, exiting PAR tomorrow night. It shall continue intensifying while moving across the warm waters of the South China Sea. The 2 to 4-day medium-range forecast shows the system attaining typhoon strength on Monday evening, Sep 28 and shall turn WNW in the direction of Northern Vietnam. KETSANA shall make its final landfall over Vietnam, just to the WNW of Hue City by early Wednesday morning, Sep 30. Rapid dissipation of this system is expected over Laos on Thursday Oct 01.

+ Effects: KETSANA's strong mid-level circulation, together with the low-level circulation center (LLCC) has re-emerge over the South China Sea...Rapid reorganizing of this system is ongoing at this time. Its developing eastern outer rainbands affecting Zambales, Tarlac and Pangasinan. Rains and winds not exceeding 60 kph may be expected early this morning. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 200 up to 300 mm can be expected along KETSANA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 500 mm near the center of the storm...or along mountain slopes. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of La Union, Pangasinan, Bataan, Manila Bay, Mindoro & Zambales. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge.

+ Current SW Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Light to moderate southwesterly winds not in excess of 40 kph with occasional widespread rains & thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: BICOL REGION, MINDORO, BORACAY, MASBATE, WESTERN MINDANAO, PALAWAN AND WESTERN VISAYAS. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

(1) Tropical Disturbance 98W (LPA) located west of the Marshall Islands continues to intensify...currently located near lat 11.2 lon 160.6E...or about 1,735 km ESE of Guam or 3,800 km. East of Southern Philippines...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 35 kph...forecast to move Westward@ 15 kph.

This system is expected to become a Tropical Cyclone within the next 12 to 24 hours. Watch for more information on this new disturbance as new data arrives. Kindly click the cool T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued everyday @ 2 PM PST (06 GMT) on tropical systems across the Western Pacific.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date: 12:00 AM PST Sun September 27 2009
Location of Center: 15.6� N Lat 118.4� E Lon
Distance 1: 175 km (95 nm) WNW of Iba, Zambales
Distance 2: 210 km (113 nm) WSW of Dagupan City
Distance 3: 300 km (162 nm) NW of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph (40 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 33 kph (18 kts)
General Direction: South China Sea
Size (in Diameter): 520 km (280 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 15 ft (4.5 m)
T2K TrackMap #12 (for Public): 6 PM PST Sat Sep 26
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 12 GMT Sat Sep 26
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 PM Sat Sep 26
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 4-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2) click to know meaning
In Effect: ZAMBALES.

The above areas will experience stormy weather tonight (with winds not exceeding 85 kph). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning
In Effect: METRO MANILA, PANGASINAN, PAMPANGA, TARLAC, NUEVA ECIJA, BULACAN, BATAAN, RIZAL, CAVITE, & LUBANG ISLAND.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph tonight until tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 1 & 2 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides.