TROPICAL STORM MELOR [20W/0918]

MELOR (20W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM MELOR [20W/0918]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 001
8:00 AM PST (00:00 GMT)
Wed 30 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #004
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

The Tropical Depression which developed yesterday afternoon has strengthened into Tropical Storm MELOR (20W)...threatens the Northern Mariana Islands.

*Residents and visitors along the Northern Mariana Islands should closely monitor the progress of MELOR (20W).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: MELOR is expected to turn more westward for the next 24 to 36 hours and intensify. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows MELOR turning slightly WNW, becoming a Category 1 Typhoon as it approaches Northern Marianas on Saturday Oct 3...and shall pass in between Guam and Saipan or over the small island of Rota on Saturday evening. Its projected wind speeds is about 150 kph. Later on in the forecast, MELOR shall turn more to the NW in the direction of the Southern Islands of Japan.

+ Effects: MELOR's circulation continues to organize with the early stages of a Central-Dense Overcast (CDO), an area where the EYE and EYEWALL will form. Its rainbands is not yet affecting any major Pacific Islands at this time. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 up to 150 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along KETSANA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 200 mm (heavy rain) near the center of the storm...or along mountain slopes. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date: 8:00 AM PST Tue September 29 2009
Location of Center: 11.7º N Lat 155.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 1,210 km (655 nm) ESE of Guam, CNMI
Distance 2: 1,160 km (627 nm) SE of Saipan, CNMI
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph (40 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WNW @ 28 kph (15 kts)
General Direction: Laos
Size (in Diameter): 370 km (200 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): N/A
NWS-Guam TrackMap (for Public): 11 AM PST Wed Sep 30
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 00 GMT Wed Sep 30
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 AM Wed Sep 30
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop