TYPHOON KETSANA [ONDOY/17W/0916]

KETSANA (ONDOY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 125 km/hr

TYPHOON KETSANA [ONDOY/17W/0916]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 021
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT)
Tue 29 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #017
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

The core of Typhoon KETSANA (ONDOY) is about to make landfall along the coast of Vietnam, just to the SE of Da Nang. High winds, big waves w/ heavy to extreme rainfall expected across Central Vietnam.

*Residents and visitors along Vietnam & Laos should closely monitor the progress of KETSANA (ONDOY).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: KETSANA is expected to continue moving West and shall make landfall along Central Vietnam very near the City of Hue early tomorrow morning. The 2-day Short-Range Forecast shows the system dissipating rapidly along Laos on Wednesday Sep 30.

+ Effects: KETSANA's circulation has remained large and intact..prior to making landfall...the core (eye and eyewall) is now along the coast of Central Vietnam or just to the southeast of Da Nang City...Typhoon conditions w/ winds above 150 kph can be expected along the Eyewall especially areas south of Hue & Da Nang Cities...while strong winds of not more than 120 kph w/ moderate rains to sometimes heavy rains can be felt along its inner bands - w/c is currently affecting the rest of Central Vietnam. KETSANA's outer (feeder) bands continues across portions of Guangdong Province (China), Hainan Island and the rest of Vietnam including Laos...bringing light to moderate rains and winds not exceeding 60 kph. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 up to 250 mm (moderate to very heavy rain) can be expected along KETSANA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 400 mm (extreme rain) near the center of the storm...or along mountain slopes. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Central Vietnam and the southern part of Hainan Island. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Tue September 29 2009
Location of Eye: 15.3� N Lat 109.1� E Lon
Distance 1: 115 km (62 nm) SE of Da Nang, Vietnam
Distance 2: 210 km (113 nm) SE of Hue, Vietnam
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 165 kph (90 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 205 kph (110 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Category 2
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 6-8 feet [1.8-2.6 m]
Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WSW @ 15 kph (08 kts)
General Direction: Central Vietnam
Size (in Diameter): 1,480 km (800 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 26 ft (7.9 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PST Tue Sep 29
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 00 GMT Tue Sep 29
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 11 AM Tue Sep 29
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 1-day Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop