PARMA (PEPENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
TYPHOON PARMA [PEPENG/19W/0917]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 009
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT)
Wed 30 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #011
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
Typhoon PARMA (PEPENG) is now well within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...strengthening as it threatens Luzon, Philippines.
*Residents and visitors along the east coast of Luzon, Philippines should closely monitor the progress of PARMA.
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: PARMA is expected to maintain its WNW track across the warm Philippine Sea. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system at its closest point of approach (CPA) to Bicol Region - about 385 km. NE of Metro Naga/CWC on Friday afternoon, with Category 3 strength of 185 kph near the eye...and shall move closer to the coast of Cagayan with a distance of only 120 km. NE of the northeastern tip of Luzon. PARMA shall be very close to the Batanes Islands...about 75 km. to the east of Basco on Monday morning, Oct 5 - with Category 4 strength of 215 kph near the eye. Please be aware that long-range forecast changes every now and then. Continued monitoring on this potential typhoon is a must for disaster preparedness agencies.
+ Effects: PARMA's circulation is slowly growing in size as it moves across the Philippine Sea...now an average tropical cyclone. Its inner (rain) bands has left the islands of Yap & Ulithi with only the eastern outer bands affecting the islands. Meanwhile, its outer (feeder) bands still spreading across Palau Island and extends west across Eastern and Southern Mindanao - passing rains, squalls, thunderstorms w/ gale-force winds may be expected along these bands. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 100 up to 200 mm (moderate to very heavy rain) can be expected along PARMA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 400 mm (extreme rain) near the center of PARMA.
+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:
(1) Tropical Depression 18W (UNNAMED) located ENE of TY PARMA, has started dissipating after passing close to Guam. Click here to view the final T2K advisory.
(2) Tropical Storm MELOR (20W) continues to gain strength as it moves towards the Marianas. Click here to view latest T2K advisory.
Kindly click the cool T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued every afternoon, and shows various tropical systems roaming across the South China Sea and the Western Pacific Ocean.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Wed September 30 2009
Location of Eye: 10.4º N Lat 134.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 985 km (532 nm) ENE of Surigao City
Distance 2: 1,000 km (540 nm) ESE of Borongan, E.Samar
Distance 3: 1,165 km (630 nm) ESE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 4: 1,180 km (638 nm) ESE of Sorsogon City
Distance 5: 1,215 km (655 nm) ESE of Legazpi City
Distance 6: 1,225 km (660 nm) ESE of Gota Beach Resort
Distance 7: 1,280 km (692 nm) ESE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 8: 1,525 km (825 nm) ESE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 140 kph (75 kts) near the eye
Peak Wind Gusts: 165 kph (90 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 4-5 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 967 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WNW @ 28 kph (15 kts)
Projected Path (Impact): Philippine Sea-Taiwan Area
Size (in Diameter): 370 km (200 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 22 ft (6.7 m)
NWS-Guam TrackMap (for Public): 5 PM PST Wed Sep 30
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 06 GMT Wed Sep 30
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 PM Wed Sep 30
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
EORC-JAXA TRMM Viewer: Real-Time Rainrate Image new!
NASA-JAXA TMI Viewer: Latest Rainrate Image new!
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
Wednesday, September 30, 2009
TYPHOON PARMA [PRE-PEPENG/19W/0917]
PARMA (PEPENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
TYPHOON PARMA [PRE-PEPENG/19W/0917]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 007
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT)
Wed 30 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #010
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
Tropical Storm PARMA (PRE-PEPENG) rapidly gained strength...now a Category 1 Typhoon...currently showing a pin-hole EYE as it prepares to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).
*Residents and visitors along the east of coast of Luzon, Philippines should closely monitor the progress of PARMA.
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: PARMA is expected to enter PAR late this afternoon and track NW'ly w/in the next 12 to 24 hours and intensify. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system turning more to the WNW across the Philippine Sea as it reaches Category 3 strength with winds of more than 200 kph and a distance of about 565 km. NE of Metro Naga/CWC. PARMA shall be about 230 km. NE of Batanes Islands on Monday, Oct 5 - as it approaches the SE coast of Taiwan. Please be aware that long-range forecast changes every now and then. Continued monitoring on this potential typhoon is a must for disaster preparedness agencies.
+ Effects: PARMA's circulation continues to improve...although small, its inner (rain) bands continues to spread west of Yap Island. Its western outer (feeder) bands continues to affect Palau Island and extends west across the Philippine Sea, east of Mindanao - passing rains, squalls, thunderstorms w/ gale-force winds may be expected along these bands. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 100 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along PARMA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 150 mm (heavy rain) near the center of this storm.
+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:
(1) Tropical Storm 18W (UNNAMED) located ENE of TS PARMA, currently passing near Guam. Click here to view latest T2K advisory.
(2) Tropical Storm KETSANA (ONDOY) dissipating over Central Vietnam after making landfall over the area yesterday afternoon.
(3) Tropical Storm MELOR (20W) continues to intensify while moving WNW across the open waters of the Western Pacific...not yet affecting any major Pacific Islands. Click here to view latest T2K advisory.
Kindly click the cool T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued everyday @ 2 PM PST (06 GMT) on various tropical systems roaming the Western Pacific Ocean.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Wed September 30 2009
Location of Eye: 9.6º N Lat 135.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 90 km (48 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 2: 250 km (135 nm) West of Yap, FSM
Distance 3: 295 km (158 nm) NNE of Koror, Palau
Distance 4: 1,130 km (610 nm) East of Surigao City
Distance 5: 1,440 km (778 nm) ESE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 6: 1,690 km (912 nm) SE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 120 kph (65 kts) near the eye
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (80 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Category 1
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 4-5 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: NW @ 26 kph (14 kts)
General Direction: Philippine Sea-Taiwan Area
Size (in Diameter): 295 km (160 nm) / Small
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 18 ft (5.4 m)
NWS-Guam TrackMap (for Public): 11 AM PST Wed Sep 30
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 00 GMT Wed Sep 30
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 11 AM Wed Sep 30
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
TYPHOON PARMA [PRE-PEPENG/19W/0917]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 007
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT)
Wed 30 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #010
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
Tropical Storm PARMA (PRE-PEPENG) rapidly gained strength...now a Category 1 Typhoon...currently showing a pin-hole EYE as it prepares to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).
*Residents and visitors along the east of coast of Luzon, Philippines should closely monitor the progress of PARMA.
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: PARMA is expected to enter PAR late this afternoon and track NW'ly w/in the next 12 to 24 hours and intensify. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system turning more to the WNW across the Philippine Sea as it reaches Category 3 strength with winds of more than 200 kph and a distance of about 565 km. NE of Metro Naga/CWC. PARMA shall be about 230 km. NE of Batanes Islands on Monday, Oct 5 - as it approaches the SE coast of Taiwan. Please be aware that long-range forecast changes every now and then. Continued monitoring on this potential typhoon is a must for disaster preparedness agencies.
+ Effects: PARMA's circulation continues to improve...although small, its inner (rain) bands continues to spread west of Yap Island. Its western outer (feeder) bands continues to affect Palau Island and extends west across the Philippine Sea, east of Mindanao - passing rains, squalls, thunderstorms w/ gale-force winds may be expected along these bands. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 100 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along PARMA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 150 mm (heavy rain) near the center of this storm.
+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:
(1) Tropical Storm 18W (UNNAMED) located ENE of TS PARMA, currently passing near Guam. Click here to view latest T2K advisory.
(2) Tropical Storm KETSANA (ONDOY) dissipating over Central Vietnam after making landfall over the area yesterday afternoon.
(3) Tropical Storm MELOR (20W) continues to intensify while moving WNW across the open waters of the Western Pacific...not yet affecting any major Pacific Islands. Click here to view latest T2K advisory.
Kindly click the cool T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued everyday @ 2 PM PST (06 GMT) on various tropical systems roaming the Western Pacific Ocean.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Wed September 30 2009
Location of Eye: 9.6º N Lat 135.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 90 km (48 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 2: 250 km (135 nm) West of Yap, FSM
Distance 3: 295 km (158 nm) NNE of Koror, Palau
Distance 4: 1,130 km (610 nm) East of Surigao City
Distance 5: 1,440 km (778 nm) ESE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 6: 1,690 km (912 nm) SE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 120 kph (65 kts) near the eye
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (80 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Category 1
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 4-5 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: NW @ 26 kph (14 kts)
General Direction: Philippine Sea-Taiwan Area
Size (in Diameter): 295 km (160 nm) / Small
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 18 ft (5.4 m)
NWS-Guam TrackMap (for Public): 11 AM PST Wed Sep 30
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 00 GMT Wed Sep 30
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 11 AM Wed Sep 30
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
TROPICAL STORM MELOR [20W/0918]
MELOR (20W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
TROPICAL STORM MELOR [20W/0918]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 001
8:00 AM PST (00:00 GMT)
Wed 30 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #004
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
The Tropical Depression which developed yesterday afternoon has strengthened into Tropical Storm MELOR (20W)...threatens the Northern Mariana Islands.
*Residents and visitors along the Northern Mariana Islands should closely monitor the progress of MELOR (20W).
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: MELOR is expected to turn more westward for the next 24 to 36 hours and intensify. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows MELOR turning slightly WNW, becoming a Category 1 Typhoon as it approaches Northern Marianas on Saturday Oct 3...and shall pass in between Guam and Saipan or over the small island of Rota on Saturday evening. Its projected wind speeds is about 150 kph. Later on in the forecast, MELOR shall turn more to the NW in the direction of the Southern Islands of Japan.
+ Effects: MELOR's circulation continues to organize with the early stages of a Central-Dense Overcast (CDO), an area where the EYE and EYEWALL will form. Its rainbands is not yet affecting any major Pacific Islands at this time. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 up to 150 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along KETSANA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 200 mm (heavy rain) near the center of the storm...or along mountain slopes. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 8:00 AM PST Tue September 29 2009
Location of Center: 11.7º N Lat 155.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 1,210 km (655 nm) ESE of Guam, CNMI
Distance 2: 1,160 km (627 nm) SE of Saipan, CNMI
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph (40 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WNW @ 28 kph (15 kts)
General Direction: Laos
Size (in Diameter): 370 km (200 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): N/A
NWS-Guam TrackMap (for Public): 11 AM PST Wed Sep 30
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 00 GMT Wed Sep 30
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 AM Wed Sep 30
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
TROPICAL STORM MELOR [20W/0918]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 001
8:00 AM PST (00:00 GMT)
Wed 30 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #004
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
The Tropical Depression which developed yesterday afternoon has strengthened into Tropical Storm MELOR (20W)...threatens the Northern Mariana Islands.
*Residents and visitors along the Northern Mariana Islands should closely monitor the progress of MELOR (20W).
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: MELOR is expected to turn more westward for the next 24 to 36 hours and intensify. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows MELOR turning slightly WNW, becoming a Category 1 Typhoon as it approaches Northern Marianas on Saturday Oct 3...and shall pass in between Guam and Saipan or over the small island of Rota on Saturday evening. Its projected wind speeds is about 150 kph. Later on in the forecast, MELOR shall turn more to the NW in the direction of the Southern Islands of Japan.
+ Effects: MELOR's circulation continues to organize with the early stages of a Central-Dense Overcast (CDO), an area where the EYE and EYEWALL will form. Its rainbands is not yet affecting any major Pacific Islands at this time. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 up to 150 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along KETSANA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 200 mm (heavy rain) near the center of the storm...or along mountain slopes. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 8:00 AM PST Tue September 29 2009
Location of Center: 11.7º N Lat 155.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 1,210 km (655 nm) ESE of Guam, CNMI
Distance 2: 1,160 km (627 nm) SE of Saipan, CNMI
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph (40 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WNW @ 28 kph (15 kts)
General Direction: Laos
Size (in Diameter): 370 km (200 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): N/A
NWS-Guam TrackMap (for Public): 11 AM PST Wed Sep 30
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 00 GMT Wed Sep 30
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 AM Wed Sep 30
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
TROPICAL STORM 18W [UNNAMED]
18W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
TROPICAL STORM 18W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 008
11:00 AM PST (03:00 GMT)
Wed 30 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #012
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
Tropical Storm 18W (UNNAMED) to pass near Guam any moment from now...Gale-force winds w/ rains expected.
*Residents and visitors along the Marianas should closely monitor the progress of 18W (UNNAMED).
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: 18W is expected to remain a weak system as it passes very close to Guam. The 2 to 3-day Medium-Range forecast shows the system dissipating and being absorbed into the circulation of Typhoon PARMA, which is a much stronger system.
+ Effects: 18W's circulation remains small. This system will bring light to moderate rainfall w/ gale-force winds (30-60 kph) across the Marianas today.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 11:00 AM PST Wed September 30 2009
Location of Center: 13.4º N Lat 145.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 55 km (30 nm) East of Guam, CNMI
Distance 2: 205 km (110 nm) SSW of Saipan, CNMI
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WNW @ 30 kph (16 kts)
General Direction: Guam-Rota Area
Size (in Diameter): -- km (--- nm) / N/A
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 17 ft (5.1 m)
NWS-Guam TrackMap (for Public): 11 AM PST Wed Sep 30
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 00 GMT Wed Sep 30
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 3-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
TROPICAL STORM 18W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 008
11:00 AM PST (03:00 GMT)
Wed 30 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #012
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
Tropical Storm 18W (UNNAMED) to pass near Guam any moment from now...Gale-force winds w/ rains expected.
*Residents and visitors along the Marianas should closely monitor the progress of 18W (UNNAMED).
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: 18W is expected to remain a weak system as it passes very close to Guam. The 2 to 3-day Medium-Range forecast shows the system dissipating and being absorbed into the circulation of Typhoon PARMA, which is a much stronger system.
+ Effects: 18W's circulation remains small. This system will bring light to moderate rainfall w/ gale-force winds (30-60 kph) across the Marianas today.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 11:00 AM PST Wed September 30 2009
Location of Center: 13.4º N Lat 145.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 55 km (30 nm) East of Guam, CNMI
Distance 2: 205 km (110 nm) SSW of Saipan, CNMI
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WNW @ 30 kph (16 kts)
General Direction: Guam-Rota Area
Size (in Diameter): -- km (--- nm) / N/A
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 17 ft (5.1 m)
NWS-Guam TrackMap (for Public): 11 AM PST Wed Sep 30
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 00 GMT Wed Sep 30
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 3-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
TROPICAL STORM PARMA [PRE-PEPENG/19W/0917]
PARMA (PEPENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
TROPICAL STORM PARMA [PRE-PEPENG/19W/0917]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 006
6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT)
Wed 30 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #009
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
Tropical Storm PARMA (PRE-PEPENG) has jogged to the WNW after passing to the south of Yap Island...still intensifying.
*Residents and visitors along the islands of Yap, Ulithi and Palau should closely monitor the progress of PARMA.
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: PARMA is expected to track WNW w/in the next 12 to 24 hours and enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) late tonight. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system turning more to the NW'ly across the Philippine Sea as it attains Typhoon intensity (Category 1) early tomorrow morning. PARMA shall continues to intensify while moving across the warm waters of the Philippine Sea. It shall be about 735 km ENE of Metro Naga/CWC on early Saturday morning, Oct 3. The typhoon shall start to turn WNW on Sunday or Monday (Oct 4-5) in the direction of Taiwan...and shall be about 340 km ENE of Batanes Islands on early Monday morning, Oct 5. Please be aware that long-range forecast changes every now and then. Continued monitoring on this potential typhoon is a must for disaster preparedness agencies.
+ Effects: PARMA's circulation continues to improve...its inner (rain) bands continues to spread across Ulithi-Yap Islands. Tropical Storm conditions can be expected across the area...Western outer (feeder) bands affecting Palau Island and extends west across the Philippine Sea, east of Mindanao - passing rains, squalls, thunderstorms w/ gale-force winds may be expected along these bands. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 75 mm (moderate rain) can be expected along PARMA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 150 mm (moderate to heavy rain) near the center of this storm.
+ Current SW Monsoon Intensity: WEAK >> Light southwesterly winds not in excess of 35 kph with occasional widespread showers, squalls (subasko) & thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: PALAWAN. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.
+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:
(1) Tropical Storm 18W (UNNAMED) located ENE of TS PARMA, is expected to pass near Guam today. Click here to view the latest T2K advisory on this system.
(2) Tropical Storm KETSANA (ONDOY) dissipating over Central Vietnam after making landfall over the area yesterday afternoon. Click here to view the last T2K advisory on this system.
(3) Tropical Storm MELOR (20W) churning WNW across the open waters of the Western Pacific...not affecting any major Pacific Islands.
Kindly click the cool T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued everyday @ 2 PM PST (06 GMT) on various tropical systems roaming the Western Pacific Ocean.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Wed September 30 2009
Location of Center: 8.4� N Lat 137.1� E Lon
Distance 1: 165 km (90 nm) SW of Yap, FSM
Distance 2: 230 km (125 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 3: 315 km (170 nm) ENE of Koror, Palau
Distance 4: 1,285 km (695 nm) ESE of Surigao City
Distance 5: 1,625 km (875 nm) SE of Metro Naga/CWC
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 95 kph (50 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 120 kph (65 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WNW @ 13 kph (07 kts)
General Direction: Yap-Ulithi Area
Size (in Diameter): 295 km (160 nm) / Small
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 17 ft (5.1 m)
NWS-Guam TrackMap (for Public): 5 AM PST Wed Sep 30
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 18 GMT Tue Sep 29
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 AM Wed Sep 30
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
TROPICAL STORM PARMA [PRE-PEPENG/19W/0917]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 006
6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT)
Wed 30 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #009
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
Tropical Storm PARMA (PRE-PEPENG) has jogged to the WNW after passing to the south of Yap Island...still intensifying.
*Residents and visitors along the islands of Yap, Ulithi and Palau should closely monitor the progress of PARMA.
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: PARMA is expected to track WNW w/in the next 12 to 24 hours and enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) late tonight. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system turning more to the NW'ly across the Philippine Sea as it attains Typhoon intensity (Category 1) early tomorrow morning. PARMA shall continues to intensify while moving across the warm waters of the Philippine Sea. It shall be about 735 km ENE of Metro Naga/CWC on early Saturday morning, Oct 3. The typhoon shall start to turn WNW on Sunday or Monday (Oct 4-5) in the direction of Taiwan...and shall be about 340 km ENE of Batanes Islands on early Monday morning, Oct 5. Please be aware that long-range forecast changes every now and then. Continued monitoring on this potential typhoon is a must for disaster preparedness agencies.
+ Effects: PARMA's circulation continues to improve...its inner (rain) bands continues to spread across Ulithi-Yap Islands. Tropical Storm conditions can be expected across the area...Western outer (feeder) bands affecting Palau Island and extends west across the Philippine Sea, east of Mindanao - passing rains, squalls, thunderstorms w/ gale-force winds may be expected along these bands. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 75 mm (moderate rain) can be expected along PARMA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 150 mm (moderate to heavy rain) near the center of this storm.
+ Current SW Monsoon Intensity: WEAK >> Light southwesterly winds not in excess of 35 kph with occasional widespread showers, squalls (subasko) & thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: PALAWAN. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.
+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:
(1) Tropical Storm 18W (UNNAMED) located ENE of TS PARMA, is expected to pass near Guam today. Click here to view the latest T2K advisory on this system.
(2) Tropical Storm KETSANA (ONDOY) dissipating over Central Vietnam after making landfall over the area yesterday afternoon. Click here to view the last T2K advisory on this system.
(3) Tropical Storm MELOR (20W) churning WNW across the open waters of the Western Pacific...not affecting any major Pacific Islands.
Kindly click the cool T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued everyday @ 2 PM PST (06 GMT) on various tropical systems roaming the Western Pacific Ocean.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Wed September 30 2009
Location of Center: 8.4� N Lat 137.1� E Lon
Distance 1: 165 km (90 nm) SW of Yap, FSM
Distance 2: 230 km (125 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 3: 315 km (170 nm) ENE of Koror, Palau
Distance 4: 1,285 km (695 nm) ESE of Surigao City
Distance 5: 1,625 km (875 nm) SE of Metro Naga/CWC
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 95 kph (50 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 120 kph (65 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WNW @ 13 kph (07 kts)
General Direction: Yap-Ulithi Area
Size (in Diameter): 295 km (160 nm) / Small
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 17 ft (5.1 m)
NWS-Guam TrackMap (for Public): 5 AM PST Wed Sep 30
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 18 GMT Tue Sep 29
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 AM Wed Sep 30
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
TROPICAL STORM 18W [UNNAMED]
18W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
TROPICAL STORM 18W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 007
5:00 AM PST (21:00 GMT)
Wed 30 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #011
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
18W (UNNAMED) becomes a Tropical Storm as it moves quickly towards the Southern Mariana Islands including Guam.
*Residents and visitors along the Marianas should closely monitor the progress of 18W (UNNAMED).
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: 18W is expected to remain a weak system throughout the forecast outlook...this due to TS PARMA (located to the WSW) which is expected to inhibit further development. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range forecast shows the system passing very close to Guam this afternoon. 18W shall enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on early Friday evening (Oct 2) as a downgraded Depression and shall be absorbed into the circulation of TS PARMA, which is a much stronger system.
+ Effects: 18W's circulation remains small. This system will bring light to moderate rainfall across the Marianas today.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 5:00 AM PST Wed September 30 2009
Location of Center: 12.9º N Lat 147.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 235 km (132 nm) ESE of Guam, CNMI
Distance 2: 290 km (155 nm) SSE of Saipan, CNMI
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WNW @ 28 kph (15 kts)
General Direction: Marianas
Size (in Diameter): -- km (--- nm) / N/A
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 16 ft (4.8 m)
NWS-Guam TrackMap (for Public): 5 AM PST Wed Sep 30
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 18 GMT Tue Sep 29
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 3-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
TROPICAL STORM 18W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 007
5:00 AM PST (21:00 GMT)
Wed 30 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #011
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
18W (UNNAMED) becomes a Tropical Storm as it moves quickly towards the Southern Mariana Islands including Guam.
*Residents and visitors along the Marianas should closely monitor the progress of 18W (UNNAMED).
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: 18W is expected to remain a weak system throughout the forecast outlook...this due to TS PARMA (located to the WSW) which is expected to inhibit further development. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range forecast shows the system passing very close to Guam this afternoon. 18W shall enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on early Friday evening (Oct 2) as a downgraded Depression and shall be absorbed into the circulation of TS PARMA, which is a much stronger system.
+ Effects: 18W's circulation remains small. This system will bring light to moderate rainfall across the Marianas today.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 5:00 AM PST Wed September 30 2009
Location of Center: 12.9º N Lat 147.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 235 km (132 nm) ESE of Guam, CNMI
Distance 2: 290 km (155 nm) SSE of Saipan, CNMI
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WNW @ 28 kph (15 kts)
General Direction: Marianas
Size (in Diameter): -- km (--- nm) / N/A
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 16 ft (4.8 m)
NWS-Guam TrackMap (for Public): 5 AM PST Wed Sep 30
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 18 GMT Tue Sep 29
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 3-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
TROPICAL STORM KETSANA [ONDOY/17W/0916]
KETSANA (ONDOY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 90 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 75 km/hr
TROPICAL STORM KETSANA [ONDOY/17W/0916]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 022 [FINAL]
8:00 PM PST (12:00 GMT)
Tue 29 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #019
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
KETSANA (ONDOY) weakened into a Tropical Storm after it made landfall over Vietnam...dissipation of this system expected..
*This is the Final Advisory on this system.
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: KETSANA is expected to dissipate overland across Laos.
+ Effects: KETSANA's circulation remained inland...expected to dump rains across Laos and Vietnam w/ tropical storm force winds and dissipate. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 up to 250 mm (moderate to very heavy rain) can be expected along KETSANA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 400 mm (extreme rain) near the center of the storm...or along mountain slopes. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 8:00 PM PST Tue September 29 2009
Location of Center: 15.4º N Lat 107.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 80 km (43 nm) SW of Da Nang, Vietnam
Distance 2: 125 km (68 nm) South of Hue, Vietnam
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 100 kph (55 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 130 kph (70 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Central Pressure: 984 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 20 kph (11 kts)
General Direction: Laos
Size (in Diameter): 1,480 km (800 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): N/A
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 PM PST Tue Sep 29
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 12 GMT Tue Sep 29
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 12 AM Wed Sep 30
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 1-day Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 90 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 75 km/hr
TROPICAL STORM KETSANA [ONDOY/17W/0916]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 022 [FINAL]
8:00 PM PST (12:00 GMT)
Tue 29 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #019
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
KETSANA (ONDOY) weakened into a Tropical Storm after it made landfall over Vietnam...dissipation of this system expected..
*This is the Final Advisory on this system.
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: KETSANA is expected to dissipate overland across Laos.
+ Effects: KETSANA's circulation remained inland...expected to dump rains across Laos and Vietnam w/ tropical storm force winds and dissipate. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 up to 250 mm (moderate to very heavy rain) can be expected along KETSANA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 400 mm (extreme rain) near the center of the storm...or along mountain slopes. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 8:00 PM PST Tue September 29 2009
Location of Center: 15.4º N Lat 107.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 80 km (43 nm) SW of Da Nang, Vietnam
Distance 2: 125 km (68 nm) South of Hue, Vietnam
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 100 kph (55 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 130 kph (70 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Central Pressure: 984 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 20 kph (11 kts)
General Direction: Laos
Size (in Diameter): 1,480 km (800 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): N/A
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 PM PST Tue Sep 29
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 12 GMT Tue Sep 29
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 12 AM Wed Sep 30
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 1-day Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
Monday, September 28, 2009
TROPICAL STORM PARMA [PRE-PEPENG/19W/0917]
PARMA (PEPENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
TROPICAL STORM PARMA [PRE-PEPENG/19W/0917]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 004
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT)
Tue 29 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #006
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
Tropical Storm 19W (PRE-PEPENG) is now internationally known as PARMA as it continues to gain strength...still on a WSW track...threatens the Republic of Palau.
*Residents and visitors along the islands of Yap, Ulithi and Palau should closely monitor the progress of PARMA (PRE-PEPENG).
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: PARMA is expected to resume its Westward movement w/in the next 12 hours, before heading WNW-ward. It shall enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow afternoon or Thursday morning. The 3 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system turning more to the NW while over the Philippine Sea...becoming a Category 1 Typhoon when it is about 800 km. to the East of Bicol Region on Friday morning, Oct 02. PARMA shall be about 600 km to the east of the Batanes Group of Islands by Monday morning, October 4. Please be aware that long-range forecast changes every now and then. Continued monitoring on this potential typhoon is a must for disaster preparedness agencies.
+ Effects: PARMA's circulation continues to improve with expanding spiral outer bands on all quadrants except the southern portion...its western outer rainbands continues to spread across Ulithi-Yap Islands and Palau Island. Passing rains, squalls, thunderstorms w/ gale-force winds may be expected along the outer bands. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 25 up to 50 mm can be expected along PARMA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 100 mm near the center of this storm.
+ Current SW Monsoon Intensity: WEAK >> Light southwesterly winds not in excess of 35 kph with occasional widespread showers, squalls (subasko) & thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: BICOL REGION, SOUTHERN LUZON, MINDORO, BORACAY, MASBATE, PALAWAN, & WESTERN VISAYAS. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.
+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:
(1) Tropical Depression 18W (UNNAMED) located east of TS 19W (PRE-PEPENG) remains weak as it tracks WNW-ward passing just north of Chuuk Island. Click here to view the latest T2K advisory on this system.
(2) Typhoon KETSANA (ONDOY) to make landfall along Central Vietnam later this afternoon. Click here to view the latest T2K advisory on this system.
Kindly click the cool T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued everyday @ 2 PM PST (06 GMT) on various tropical systems roaming the Western Pacific Ocean.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Tue September 29 2009
Location of Center: 7.8º N Lat 139.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 210 km (112 nm) ESE of Yap, FSM
Distance 2: 465 km (250 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 3: 510 km (275 nm) ENE of Koror, Palau
Distance 4: 1,510 km (815 nm) ESE of Surigao City
Distance 5: 1,850 km (998 nm) SE of Metro Naga/CWC
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph (40 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WSW @ 28 kph (15 kts)
General Direction: Yap-Ulithi-Palau Area
Size (in Diameter): 185 km (100 nm) / Very Small
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
NWS-Guam TrackMap (for Public): 11 AM PST Tue Sep 29
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 00 GMT Tue Sep 29
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 AM Tue Sep 29
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
TROPICAL STORM PARMA [PRE-PEPENG/19W/0917]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 004
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT)
Tue 29 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #006
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
Tropical Storm 19W (PRE-PEPENG) is now internationally known as PARMA as it continues to gain strength...still on a WSW track...threatens the Republic of Palau.
*Residents and visitors along the islands of Yap, Ulithi and Palau should closely monitor the progress of PARMA (PRE-PEPENG).
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: PARMA is expected to resume its Westward movement w/in the next 12 hours, before heading WNW-ward. It shall enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow afternoon or Thursday morning. The 3 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system turning more to the NW while over the Philippine Sea...becoming a Category 1 Typhoon when it is about 800 km. to the East of Bicol Region on Friday morning, Oct 02. PARMA shall be about 600 km to the east of the Batanes Group of Islands by Monday morning, October 4. Please be aware that long-range forecast changes every now and then. Continued monitoring on this potential typhoon is a must for disaster preparedness agencies.
+ Effects: PARMA's circulation continues to improve with expanding spiral outer bands on all quadrants except the southern portion...its western outer rainbands continues to spread across Ulithi-Yap Islands and Palau Island. Passing rains, squalls, thunderstorms w/ gale-force winds may be expected along the outer bands. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 25 up to 50 mm can be expected along PARMA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 100 mm near the center of this storm.
+ Current SW Monsoon Intensity: WEAK >> Light southwesterly winds not in excess of 35 kph with occasional widespread showers, squalls (subasko) & thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: BICOL REGION, SOUTHERN LUZON, MINDORO, BORACAY, MASBATE, PALAWAN, & WESTERN VISAYAS. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.
+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:
(1) Tropical Depression 18W (UNNAMED) located east of TS 19W (PRE-PEPENG) remains weak as it tracks WNW-ward passing just north of Chuuk Island. Click here to view the latest T2K advisory on this system.
(2) Typhoon KETSANA (ONDOY) to make landfall along Central Vietnam later this afternoon. Click here to view the latest T2K advisory on this system.
Kindly click the cool T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued everyday @ 2 PM PST (06 GMT) on various tropical systems roaming the Western Pacific Ocean.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Tue September 29 2009
Location of Center: 7.8º N Lat 139.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 210 km (112 nm) ESE of Yap, FSM
Distance 2: 465 km (250 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 3: 510 km (275 nm) ENE of Koror, Palau
Distance 4: 1,510 km (815 nm) ESE of Surigao City
Distance 5: 1,850 km (998 nm) SE of Metro Naga/CWC
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph (40 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WSW @ 28 kph (15 kts)
General Direction: Yap-Ulithi-Palau Area
Size (in Diameter): 185 km (100 nm) / Very Small
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
NWS-Guam TrackMap (for Public): 11 AM PST Tue Sep 29
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 00 GMT Tue Sep 29
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 AM Tue Sep 29
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
TYPHOON KETSANA [ONDOY/17W/0916]
KETSANA (ONDOY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 125 km/hr
TYPHOON KETSANA [ONDOY/17W/0916]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 021
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT)
Tue 29 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #017
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
The core of Typhoon KETSANA (ONDOY) is about to make landfall along the coast of Vietnam, just to the SE of Da Nang. High winds, big waves w/ heavy to extreme rainfall expected across Central Vietnam.
*Residents and visitors along Vietnam & Laos should closely monitor the progress of KETSANA (ONDOY).
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: KETSANA is expected to continue moving West and shall make landfall along Central Vietnam very near the City of Hue early tomorrow morning. The 2-day Short-Range Forecast shows the system dissipating rapidly along Laos on Wednesday Sep 30.
+ Effects: KETSANA's circulation has remained large and intact..prior to making landfall...the core (eye and eyewall) is now along the coast of Central Vietnam or just to the southeast of Da Nang City...Typhoon conditions w/ winds above 150 kph can be expected along the Eyewall especially areas south of Hue & Da Nang Cities...while strong winds of not more than 120 kph w/ moderate rains to sometimes heavy rains can be felt along its inner bands - w/c is currently affecting the rest of Central Vietnam. KETSANA's outer (feeder) bands continues across portions of Guangdong Province (China), Hainan Island and the rest of Vietnam including Laos...bringing light to moderate rains and winds not exceeding 60 kph. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 up to 250 mm (moderate to very heavy rain) can be expected along KETSANA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 400 mm (extreme rain) near the center of the storm...or along mountain slopes. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Central Vietnam and the southern part of Hainan Island. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Tue September 29 2009
Location of Eye: 15.3� N Lat 109.1� E Lon
Distance 1: 115 km (62 nm) SE of Da Nang, Vietnam
Distance 2: 210 km (113 nm) SE of Hue, Vietnam
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 165 kph (90 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 205 kph (110 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Category 2
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 6-8 feet [1.8-2.6 m]
Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WSW @ 15 kph (08 kts)
General Direction: Central Vietnam
Size (in Diameter): 1,480 km (800 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 26 ft (7.9 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PST Tue Sep 29
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 00 GMT Tue Sep 29
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 11 AM Tue Sep 29
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 1-day Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 125 km/hr
TYPHOON KETSANA [ONDOY/17W/0916]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 021
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT)
Tue 29 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #017
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
The core of Typhoon KETSANA (ONDOY) is about to make landfall along the coast of Vietnam, just to the SE of Da Nang. High winds, big waves w/ heavy to extreme rainfall expected across Central Vietnam.
*Residents and visitors along Vietnam & Laos should closely monitor the progress of KETSANA (ONDOY).
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: KETSANA is expected to continue moving West and shall make landfall along Central Vietnam very near the City of Hue early tomorrow morning. The 2-day Short-Range Forecast shows the system dissipating rapidly along Laos on Wednesday Sep 30.
+ Effects: KETSANA's circulation has remained large and intact..prior to making landfall...the core (eye and eyewall) is now along the coast of Central Vietnam or just to the southeast of Da Nang City...Typhoon conditions w/ winds above 150 kph can be expected along the Eyewall especially areas south of Hue & Da Nang Cities...while strong winds of not more than 120 kph w/ moderate rains to sometimes heavy rains can be felt along its inner bands - w/c is currently affecting the rest of Central Vietnam. KETSANA's outer (feeder) bands continues across portions of Guangdong Province (China), Hainan Island and the rest of Vietnam including Laos...bringing light to moderate rains and winds not exceeding 60 kph. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 up to 250 mm (moderate to very heavy rain) can be expected along KETSANA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 400 mm (extreme rain) near the center of the storm...or along mountain slopes. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Central Vietnam and the southern part of Hainan Island. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Tue September 29 2009
Location of Eye: 15.3� N Lat 109.1� E Lon
Distance 1: 115 km (62 nm) SE of Da Nang, Vietnam
Distance 2: 210 km (113 nm) SE of Hue, Vietnam
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 165 kph (90 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 205 kph (110 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Category 2
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 6-8 feet [1.8-2.6 m]
Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WSW @ 15 kph (08 kts)
General Direction: Central Vietnam
Size (in Diameter): 1,480 km (800 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 26 ft (7.9 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PST Tue Sep 29
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 00 GMT Tue Sep 29
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 11 AM Tue Sep 29
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 1-day Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W [UNNAMED]
18W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 006
11:00 AM PST (03:00 GMT)
Tue 29 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #008
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
Tropical Depression 18W (UNNAMED) has accelerated NW-ward while being disorganized.
*Residents and visitors along the Marianas should closely monitor the progress of 18W (UNNAMED).
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: 18W is expected to remain a weak storm throughout the forecast outlook...this due to TS PARMA (located to the WSW) which is expected to inhibit further development. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range forecast shows the system just reaching minimal tropical storm and passing very close to Guam tomorrow evening. 18W shall enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on early Friday evening (Oct 2) as a downgraded Depression. Later in the forecast, on Oct 4 - 18W might be absorbed into the circulation of TS PARMA, which is a much stronger system.
+ Effects: 18W's circulation has become obscurred and disorganized. This system may just bring light to moderate rainfall across the Marianas beginning tomorrow.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 11:00 AM PST Tue September 29 2009
Location of Center: 10.8º N Lat 151.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 765 km (413 nm) ESE of Guam, CNMI
Distance 2: 770 km (415 nm) SE of Saipan, CNMI
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Depression
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: NW @ 24 kph (13 kts)
General Direction: Southern Marianas
Size (in Diameter): -- km (--- nm) / N/A
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 15 ft (4.5 m)
NWS-Guam TrackMap (for Public): 11 AM PST Tue Sep 29
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 00 GMT Tue Sep 29
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 006
11:00 AM PST (03:00 GMT)
Tue 29 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #008
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
Tropical Depression 18W (UNNAMED) has accelerated NW-ward while being disorganized.
*Residents and visitors along the Marianas should closely monitor the progress of 18W (UNNAMED).
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: 18W is expected to remain a weak storm throughout the forecast outlook...this due to TS PARMA (located to the WSW) which is expected to inhibit further development. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range forecast shows the system just reaching minimal tropical storm and passing very close to Guam tomorrow evening. 18W shall enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on early Friday evening (Oct 2) as a downgraded Depression. Later in the forecast, on Oct 4 - 18W might be absorbed into the circulation of TS PARMA, which is a much stronger system.
+ Effects: 18W's circulation has become obscurred and disorganized. This system may just bring light to moderate rainfall across the Marianas beginning tomorrow.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 11:00 AM PST Tue September 29 2009
Location of Center: 10.8º N Lat 151.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 765 km (413 nm) ESE of Guam, CNMI
Distance 2: 770 km (415 nm) SE of Saipan, CNMI
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Depression
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: NW @ 24 kph (13 kts)
General Direction: Southern Marianas
Size (in Diameter): -- km (--- nm) / N/A
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 15 ft (4.5 m)
NWS-Guam TrackMap (for Public): 11 AM PST Tue Sep 29
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 00 GMT Tue Sep 29
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
TYPHOON KETSANA [ONDOY/17W/0916]
KETSANA (ONDOY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 125 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
TYPHOON KETSANA [ONDOY/17W/0916]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 018
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT)
Mon 28 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #013
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
KETSANA (ONDOY) becomes a Typhoon as it nears the coast of Vietnam.
*Residents and visitors along Hainan Island and Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of KETSANA (ONDOY).
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: KETSANA is expected to continue moving West and shall reach the coast of Vietnam tomorrow morning. Landfall is likely along Central Vietnam near the City of Hue tomorrow late afternoon. The 2-day Short-Range Forecast shows the system dissipating rapidly along Laos on Wednesday Sep 30.
+ Effects: KETSANA's circulation has remained organized...its western outer rainbands is now spreading across Central & Southern Vietnam, Hainan Island and portions of Coastal Guangdong Province (China). Rains and winds not exceeding 60 kph may be expected along the outer bands of the storm. Typhoon conditions w/ winds of more than 100 kph can be expected along the path of CHOI-WAN especially over Central Vietnam beginning tonight. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 up to 200 mm can be expected along KETSANA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 400 mm near the center of the storm...or along mountain slopes. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Vietnam and Hainan Island. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Mon September 28 2009
Location of Center: 15.9º N Lat 112.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 370 km (200 nm) SE of Sanya, Hainan Is.
Distance 2: 405 km (220 nm) East of Da Nang, Vietnam
Distance 3: 475 km (257 nm) ESE of Hue, Vietnam
Distance 4: 750 km (405 nm) SSW of Hong Kong
Distance 5: 885 km (478 nm) West of Dagupan City, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 120 kph (65 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (80 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Category 1
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 4-5 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 11 kph (06 kts)
General Direction: Central Vietnam
Size (in Diameter): 1,480 km (800 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 23 ft (7.0 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PST Mon Sep 28
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 00 GMT Mon Sep 28
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 AM Mon Sep 28
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 2-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 125 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
TYPHOON KETSANA [ONDOY/17W/0916]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 018
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT)
Mon 28 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #013
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
KETSANA (ONDOY) becomes a Typhoon as it nears the coast of Vietnam.
*Residents and visitors along Hainan Island and Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of KETSANA (ONDOY).
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: KETSANA is expected to continue moving West and shall reach the coast of Vietnam tomorrow morning. Landfall is likely along Central Vietnam near the City of Hue tomorrow late afternoon. The 2-day Short-Range Forecast shows the system dissipating rapidly along Laos on Wednesday Sep 30.
+ Effects: KETSANA's circulation has remained organized...its western outer rainbands is now spreading across Central & Southern Vietnam, Hainan Island and portions of Coastal Guangdong Province (China). Rains and winds not exceeding 60 kph may be expected along the outer bands of the storm. Typhoon conditions w/ winds of more than 100 kph can be expected along the path of CHOI-WAN especially over Central Vietnam beginning tonight. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 up to 200 mm can be expected along KETSANA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 400 mm near the center of the storm...or along mountain slopes. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Vietnam and Hainan Island. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Mon September 28 2009
Location of Center: 15.9º N Lat 112.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 370 km (200 nm) SE of Sanya, Hainan Is.
Distance 2: 405 km (220 nm) East of Da Nang, Vietnam
Distance 3: 475 km (257 nm) ESE of Hue, Vietnam
Distance 4: 750 km (405 nm) SSW of Hong Kong
Distance 5: 885 km (478 nm) West of Dagupan City, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 120 kph (65 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (80 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Category 1
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 4-5 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 11 kph (06 kts)
General Direction: Central Vietnam
Size (in Diameter): 1,480 km (800 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 23 ft (7.0 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PST Mon Sep 28
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 00 GMT Mon Sep 28
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 AM Mon Sep 28
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 2-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W [PRE-PEPENG]
19W (PRE-PEPENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W [PRE-PEPENG]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 002 (INITIAL)
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT)
Mon 28 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #003
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
Tropical Depression 19W (PRE-PEPENG) heading west towards Yap and Ulithi Islands in Western Micronesia.
*Residents and visitors along the islands of Yap and Ulithi should closely monitor the progress of 19W (PRE-PEPENG).
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: 19W is expected to continue moving due West for the next 2 days, reaching Tropical Storm status tomorrow afternoon and shall enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Wednesday morning, Sep 30. The 3 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system turning abruptly WNW to NW-ward, becoming a Category 1 Typhoon while about 500 km. to the east of Camarines Sur on Friday afternoon Oct 02. It shall be about 300 km to the east of Cagayan Province in Northern Luzon on Saturday afternoon, October 3. Please be aware that long-range forecast changes every now and then. Continued monitoring on this potential typhoon is a must for disaster preparedness agencies.
+ Effects: 19W's circulation has continued to improve with expanding spiral outer bands west and northth of the center...its developing western outer rainbands continues to spread across Ulithi and Yap Islands. Passing rains and gale-force winds may be expected along these outer bands. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 25 up to 50 mm can be expected along 19W's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 200 mm near the center of this depression.
+ Current SW Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Light to moderate southwesterly winds not in excess of 40 kph with occasional widespread rains, squalls (subasko) & thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN LUZON, METRO MANILA, BICOL REGION, MINDORO, BORACAY, MASBATE, PALAWAN, WESTERN VISAYAS & MINDANAO. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.
+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:
(1) Tropical Depression 18W (UNNAMED) located east of TD 19W (PRE-PEPENG) remains weak as it tracks WSW-ward near the Hall Islands. Click here to view the latest T2K advisory on this system.
(2) Typhoon KETSANA (ONDOY) nearing Category 2 strength as it moves closer to the coast of Vietnam...continues to show its ragged EYE. Click here to view the latest T2K advisory on this system.
Kindly click the cool T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued everyday @ 2 PM PST (06 GMT) on various tropical systems roaming the Western Pacific Ocean.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Mon September 28 2009
Location of Center: 9.5º N Lat 143.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 465 km (250 nm) SSW of Guam, CNMI
Distance 2: 560 km (303 nm) East of Yap, FSM
Distance 3: 900 km (485 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 4: 1,940 km (1,048 nm) East of Surigao City, PH
Distance 5: 2,225 km (1,200 nm) ESE of Metro Naga/CWC, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Depression
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 19 kph (10 kts)
General Direction: Yap Island-Philippine Sea Area
Size (in Diameter): 500 km (270 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 ft (3.0 m)
NWS-Guam TrackMap (for Public): 5 PM PST Mon Sep 28
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 06 GMT Mon Sep 28
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W [PRE-PEPENG]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 002 (INITIAL)
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT)
Mon 28 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #003
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
Tropical Depression 19W (PRE-PEPENG) heading west towards Yap and Ulithi Islands in Western Micronesia.
*Residents and visitors along the islands of Yap and Ulithi should closely monitor the progress of 19W (PRE-PEPENG).
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: 19W is expected to continue moving due West for the next 2 days, reaching Tropical Storm status tomorrow afternoon and shall enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Wednesday morning, Sep 30. The 3 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system turning abruptly WNW to NW-ward, becoming a Category 1 Typhoon while about 500 km. to the east of Camarines Sur on Friday afternoon Oct 02. It shall be about 300 km to the east of Cagayan Province in Northern Luzon on Saturday afternoon, October 3. Please be aware that long-range forecast changes every now and then. Continued monitoring on this potential typhoon is a must for disaster preparedness agencies.
+ Effects: 19W's circulation has continued to improve with expanding spiral outer bands west and northth of the center...its developing western outer rainbands continues to spread across Ulithi and Yap Islands. Passing rains and gale-force winds may be expected along these outer bands. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 25 up to 50 mm can be expected along 19W's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 200 mm near the center of this depression.
+ Current SW Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Light to moderate southwesterly winds not in excess of 40 kph with occasional widespread rains, squalls (subasko) & thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN LUZON, METRO MANILA, BICOL REGION, MINDORO, BORACAY, MASBATE, PALAWAN, WESTERN VISAYAS & MINDANAO. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.
+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:
(1) Tropical Depression 18W (UNNAMED) located east of TD 19W (PRE-PEPENG) remains weak as it tracks WSW-ward near the Hall Islands. Click here to view the latest T2K advisory on this system.
(2) Typhoon KETSANA (ONDOY) nearing Category 2 strength as it moves closer to the coast of Vietnam...continues to show its ragged EYE. Click here to view the latest T2K advisory on this system.
Kindly click the cool T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued everyday @ 2 PM PST (06 GMT) on various tropical systems roaming the Western Pacific Ocean.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Mon September 28 2009
Location of Center: 9.5º N Lat 143.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 465 km (250 nm) SSW of Guam, CNMI
Distance 2: 560 km (303 nm) East of Yap, FSM
Distance 3: 900 km (485 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 4: 1,940 km (1,048 nm) East of Surigao City, PH
Distance 5: 2,225 km (1,200 nm) ESE of Metro Naga/CWC, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Depression
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 19 kph (10 kts)
General Direction: Yap Island-Philippine Sea Area
Size (in Diameter): 500 km (270 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 ft (3.0 m)
NWS-Guam TrackMap (for Public): 5 PM PST Mon Sep 28
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 06 GMT Mon Sep 28
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W [UNNAMED]
18W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 003
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT)
Mon 28 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #004
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
Tropical Depression 18W (UNNAMED) has tracked more to the SW and still consolidating east of TD 19W (Pre-PEPENG).
*Residents and visitors along the Marianas and Western Micronesia should closely monitor the progress of 18W (UNNAMED).
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: 18W is expected to start tracking WNW for the next 24 hours and intensify into a Tropical Storm. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range forecast shows the system continuing WNW-ward, passing very close to the south of Guam by Wednesday morning Sep 30...reaching Typhoon status on Saturday morning, Oct 3rd while over the Philippine Sea. 18W shall enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Friday evening, Oct 2nd. Please be aware that long-range forecast changes every now and then. Continued monitoring on this potential typhoon is a must for disaster preparedness agencies.
+ Effects: 18W's circulation continues to consolidate. This system is not yet affecting any major Western Pacific Islands as of this time.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Mon September 28 2009
Location of Center: 9.1º N Lat 155.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 1,230 km (665 nm) SE of Guam, CNMI
Distance 2: 1,235 km (667 nm) SE of Saipan, CNMI
Distance 3: 1,875 km (1,012 nm) East of Yap, FSM
Distance 4: 2,215 km (1,195 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 5: 3,255 km (1,758 nm) East of Northern Mindanao
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Depression
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: SW @ 11 kph (06 kts)
General Direction: Southern Marianas
Size (in Diameter): -- km (--- nm) / N/A
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 14 ft (4.2 m)
NWS-Guam TrackMap (for Public): 11 AM PST Mon Sep 28
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 00 GMT Mon Sep 28
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 003
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT)
Mon 28 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #004
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
Tropical Depression 18W (UNNAMED) has tracked more to the SW and still consolidating east of TD 19W (Pre-PEPENG).
*Residents and visitors along the Marianas and Western Micronesia should closely monitor the progress of 18W (UNNAMED).
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: 18W is expected to start tracking WNW for the next 24 hours and intensify into a Tropical Storm. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range forecast shows the system continuing WNW-ward, passing very close to the south of Guam by Wednesday morning Sep 30...reaching Typhoon status on Saturday morning, Oct 3rd while over the Philippine Sea. 18W shall enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Friday evening, Oct 2nd. Please be aware that long-range forecast changes every now and then. Continued monitoring on this potential typhoon is a must for disaster preparedness agencies.
+ Effects: 18W's circulation continues to consolidate. This system is not yet affecting any major Western Pacific Islands as of this time.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Mon September 28 2009
Location of Center: 9.1º N Lat 155.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 1,230 km (665 nm) SE of Guam, CNMI
Distance 2: 1,235 km (667 nm) SE of Saipan, CNMI
Distance 3: 1,875 km (1,012 nm) East of Yap, FSM
Distance 4: 2,215 km (1,195 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 5: 3,255 km (1,758 nm) East of Northern Mindanao
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Depression
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: SW @ 11 kph (06 kts)
General Direction: Southern Marianas
Size (in Diameter): -- km (--- nm) / N/A
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 14 ft (4.2 m)
NWS-Guam TrackMap (for Public): 11 AM PST Mon Sep 28
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 00 GMT Mon Sep 28
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
Sunday, September 27, 2009
Tropical Storm KETSANA (ONDOY/17W)
KETSANA (ONDOY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
TROPICAL STORM KETSANA [ONDOY/17W/0916]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 017
6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT)
Mon 28 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #012
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
Tropical Storm KETSANA (ONDOY) slowed down further as it nears Typhoon strength.
*Residents and visitors along Hainan Island and Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of KETSANA (ONDOY).
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: KETSANA is expected to continue moving West to WNW, reaching Typhoon status today. It shall continue intensifying while moving across the warm waters of the South China Sea. The 3-day medium-range forecast shows the system making landfall over Central Vietnam tomorrow afternoon near the City of Hue. Rapid dissipation of this system is expected over Laos-Thailand area on Thursday Oct 1st.
+ Effects: KETSANA's circulation has remained organized...its western outer rainbands continues to spread into Central Vietnam, Hainan Island and portions of Coastal Guangdong (China). Rains and winds not exceeding 60 kph may be expected along the outer bands of the storm. Typhoon conditions w/ winds of more than 100 kph can be expected along the path of CHOI-WAN especially over Central Vietnam tomorrow. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 100 up to 200 mm can be expected along KETSANA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 300 mm near the center of the storm...or along mountain slopes. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Vietnam and Hainan Island. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge.
+ Current SW Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Light to moderate southwesterly winds not in excess of 40 kph with occasional widespread rains, squalls (subasko) & thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN LUZON, METRO MANILA, BICOL REGION, MINDORO, BORACAY, MASBATE, PALAWAN AND WESTERN VISAYAS. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.
+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:
(1) Tropical Disturbance 98W (LPA) located west of the Marshall Islands has become Tropical Depression 18W. Click here to view the latest T2K advisory on this system.
(2) Tropical Disturbance 99W (LPA) growing in size as it nears Tropical Depression status...now passing south of Guam...currently located near lat 9.6N lon 145.1E...or about 425 km South of Guam or 2,150 km. East of Northern Mindanao, Philippines...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 40 kph...moving West @ 19 kph.
This system is expected to become a Tropical Cyclone today. Watch for more information on this disturbance as new data arrives. Kindly click the cool T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued everyday @ 2 PM PST (06 GMT) on tropical systems across the Western Pacific.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Mon September 28 2009
Location of Center: 15.7� N Lat 113.2� E Lon
Distance 1: 535 km (290 nm) East of Da Nang, Vietnam
Distance 2: 605 km (327 nm) ESE of Hue, Vietnam
Distance 3: 490 km (265 nm) SE of Sanya, Hainan Is.
Distance 4: 730 km (395 nm) SSW of Hong Kong
Distance 5: 760 km (410 nm) WSW of Dagupan City, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 110 kph (60 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 140 kph (75 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Central Pressure: 978 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 11 kph (06 kts)
General Direction: Vietnam
Size (in Diameter): 1,390 km (750 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 21 ft (6.4 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PST Mon Sep 28
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 18 GMT Sun Sep 27
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 AM Mon Sep 28
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 3-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
TROPICAL STORM KETSANA [ONDOY/17W/0916]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 017
6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT)
Mon 28 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #012
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
Tropical Storm KETSANA (ONDOY) slowed down further as it nears Typhoon strength.
*Residents and visitors along Hainan Island and Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of KETSANA (ONDOY).
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: KETSANA is expected to continue moving West to WNW, reaching Typhoon status today. It shall continue intensifying while moving across the warm waters of the South China Sea. The 3-day medium-range forecast shows the system making landfall over Central Vietnam tomorrow afternoon near the City of Hue. Rapid dissipation of this system is expected over Laos-Thailand area on Thursday Oct 1st.
+ Effects: KETSANA's circulation has remained organized...its western outer rainbands continues to spread into Central Vietnam, Hainan Island and portions of Coastal Guangdong (China). Rains and winds not exceeding 60 kph may be expected along the outer bands of the storm. Typhoon conditions w/ winds of more than 100 kph can be expected along the path of CHOI-WAN especially over Central Vietnam tomorrow. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 100 up to 200 mm can be expected along KETSANA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 300 mm near the center of the storm...or along mountain slopes. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Vietnam and Hainan Island. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge.
+ Current SW Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Light to moderate southwesterly winds not in excess of 40 kph with occasional widespread rains, squalls (subasko) & thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN LUZON, METRO MANILA, BICOL REGION, MINDORO, BORACAY, MASBATE, PALAWAN AND WESTERN VISAYAS. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.
+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:
(1) Tropical Disturbance 98W (LPA) located west of the Marshall Islands has become Tropical Depression 18W. Click here to view the latest T2K advisory on this system.
(2) Tropical Disturbance 99W (LPA) growing in size as it nears Tropical Depression status...now passing south of Guam...currently located near lat 9.6N lon 145.1E...or about 425 km South of Guam or 2,150 km. East of Northern Mindanao, Philippines...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 40 kph...moving West @ 19 kph.
This system is expected to become a Tropical Cyclone today. Watch for more information on this disturbance as new data arrives. Kindly click the cool T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued everyday @ 2 PM PST (06 GMT) on tropical systems across the Western Pacific.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Mon September 28 2009
Location of Center: 15.7� N Lat 113.2� E Lon
Distance 1: 535 km (290 nm) East of Da Nang, Vietnam
Distance 2: 605 km (327 nm) ESE of Hue, Vietnam
Distance 3: 490 km (265 nm) SE of Sanya, Hainan Is.
Distance 4: 730 km (395 nm) SSW of Hong Kong
Distance 5: 760 km (410 nm) WSW of Dagupan City, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 110 kph (60 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 140 kph (75 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Central Pressure: 978 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 11 kph (06 kts)
General Direction: Vietnam
Size (in Diameter): 1,390 km (750 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 21 ft (6.4 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PST Mon Sep 28
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 18 GMT Sun Sep 27
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 AM Mon Sep 28
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 3-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
Tropical Depression 18W (UNNAMED)
18W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 45 km/hr
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 002
6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT)
Mon 28 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #003
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
Tropical Depression 18W (UNNAMED) drifting WSW across Central Micronesia as it slightly intensifies.
*Residents and visitors along the Marianas and Western Micronesia should closely monitor the progress of 18W (UNNAMED).
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: 18W is expected to move WNW for the next 24 hours and intensify into a Tropical Storm. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range forecast shows the system continuing WNW-ward, passing very close to Guam by early Wednesday...reaching Typhoon status on Thursday morning, Oct 1st. 18W, as a Typhoon, shall enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) early Friday morning, Oct 2nd and shall be approaching Extreme Northern Luzon on Saturday, Oct 03. Please be aware that long-range forecast changes every now and then. Continued monitoring on this potential typhoon is a must for disaster preparedness agencies.
+ Effects: 18W's circulation continues to consolidate. This system is not yet affecting any major Western Pacific Islands as of this time.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Mon September 28 2009
Location of Exposed Center: 9.6º N Lat 155.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 1,280 km (690 nm) ESE of Guam, CNMI
Distance 2: 1,265 km (683 nm) SE of Saipan, CNMI
Distance 3: 1,950 km (1,053 nm) East of Yap, FSM
Distance 4: 2,290 km (1,237 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 5: 3,330 km (1,798 nm) East of Northern Mindanao
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Depression
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WSW @ 07 kph (04 kts)
General Direction: Southern Marianas
Size (in Diameter): -- km (--- nm) / N/A
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 13 ft (3.9 m)
NWS-Guam TrackMap (for Public): 5 AM PST Mon Sep 28
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 18 GMT Sun Sep 27
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 45 km/hr
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 002
6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT)
Mon 28 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #003
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
Tropical Depression 18W (UNNAMED) drifting WSW across Central Micronesia as it slightly intensifies.
*Residents and visitors along the Marianas and Western Micronesia should closely monitor the progress of 18W (UNNAMED).
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: 18W is expected to move WNW for the next 24 hours and intensify into a Tropical Storm. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range forecast shows the system continuing WNW-ward, passing very close to Guam by early Wednesday...reaching Typhoon status on Thursday morning, Oct 1st. 18W, as a Typhoon, shall enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) early Friday morning, Oct 2nd and shall be approaching Extreme Northern Luzon on Saturday, Oct 03. Please be aware that long-range forecast changes every now and then. Continued monitoring on this potential typhoon is a must for disaster preparedness agencies.
+ Effects: 18W's circulation continues to consolidate. This system is not yet affecting any major Western Pacific Islands as of this time.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Mon September 28 2009
Location of Exposed Center: 9.6º N Lat 155.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 1,280 km (690 nm) ESE of Guam, CNMI
Distance 2: 1,265 km (683 nm) SE of Saipan, CNMI
Distance 3: 1,950 km (1,053 nm) East of Yap, FSM
Distance 4: 2,290 km (1,237 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 5: 3,330 km (1,798 nm) East of Northern Mindanao
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Depression
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WSW @ 07 kph (04 kts)
General Direction: Southern Marianas
Size (in Diameter): -- km (--- nm) / N/A
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 13 ft (3.9 m)
NWS-Guam TrackMap (for Public): 5 AM PST Mon Sep 28
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 18 GMT Sun Sep 27
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
TROPICAL STORM KETSANA [ONDOY/17W/0916]
KETSANA (ONDOY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
TROPICAL STORM KETSANA [ONDOY/17W/0916]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 015
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Sun 27 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #009
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
The flood-bearing Tropical Storm KETSANA (ONDOY) is about to leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...continues to intensify while churning across the warm South China Sea. Monsoon rains continues to dump "on and off" rains across Metro Manila and parts of the Philippines.
*Residents and visitors along Hainan Island and Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of KETSANA (ONDOY).
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: KETSANA is expected to continue to move on a Westerly track, exiting PAR this afternoon. It shall continue intensifying while moving across the warm waters of the South China Sea. The 2 to 3-day medium-range forecast shows the system attaining typhoon strength on Monday, Sep 28 as it approaches the coast of Vietnam. KETSANA shall make its final landfall over Central Vietnam, over or very close to the City of Hue on Tuesday night, Sep 29. Rapid dissipation of this system is expected over Laos on Wednesday Sep 30th.
+ Effects: KETSANA's strong circulation remains large and continues to cover most of South China Sea. Its eastern outer rainbands has already left Western Luzon. Meanwhile, the western outer rainbands of KETSANA is expected to reach the coastal areas of Vietnam and Hainan Island this afternoon thru the evening. Rains and winds not exceeding 60 kph may be expected along the outer bands of the storm. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 100 up to 300 mm can be expected along KETSANA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 450 mm near the center of the storm...or along mountain slopes. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Vietnam and Hainan Island. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge.
+ Current SW Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Light to moderate southwesterly winds not in excess of 40 kph with occasional widespread rains, squalls (subasko) & thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN LUZON, METRO MANILA, BICOL REGION, MINDORO, BORACAY, MASBATE, WESTERN MINDANAO, PALAWAN AND WESTERN VISAYAS. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.
+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:
(1) Tropical Disturbance 98W (LPA) located west of the Marshall Islands continues to organize and intensify...currently located near lat 10.2 lon 158.1E...or about 1,490 km ESE of Guam or 3,570 km. East of Northern Mindanao, Philippines...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 40 kph near the center...moving WSW @ 26 kph towards Southern Marianas-Carolines Area.
(2) Tropical Disturbance 99W (LPA) still gaining pulsating cloud convection as it moves Westward towards the Southern Mariana Islands...currently located near lat 10.0N lon 147.3E...or about 465 km SE of Guam or 2,390 km. East of Northern Mindanao, Philippines...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 35 kph...moving West @ 26 kph.
These systems are expected to become Tropical Cyclones within the next 1 to 3 days. Watch for more information on this new disturbance as new data arrives. Kindly click the cool T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued everyday @ 2 PM PST (06 GMT) on tropical systems across the Western Pacific.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Sun September 27 2009
Location of Center: 15.5º N Lat 115.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 470 km (255 nm) WNW of Iba, Zambales
Distance 2: 505 km (272 nm) WSW of Dagupan City
Distance 3: 600 km (323 nm) WNW of Metro Manila
Distance 4: 715 km (385 nm) SE of Sanya, Hainan Is.
Distance 5: 795 km (430 nm) ESE of Da Nang, Vietnam
Distance 6: 860 km (465 nm) ESE of Hue, Vietnam
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 95 kph (50 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 120 kph (65 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 30 kph (16 kts)
General Direction: Vietnam-Hainan Is. Area
Size (in Diameter): 665 km (360 nm) / Avg/Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 18 ft (5.4 m)
T2K Final TrackMap (for Public): 12 PM PST Sun Sep 27
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 00 GMT Sun Sep 27
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 AM Sun Sep 27
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 3-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning
In Effect: NOW LOWERED.
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
TROPICAL STORM KETSANA [ONDOY/17W/0916]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 015
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Sun 27 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #009
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
The flood-bearing Tropical Storm KETSANA (ONDOY) is about to leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...continues to intensify while churning across the warm South China Sea. Monsoon rains continues to dump "on and off" rains across Metro Manila and parts of the Philippines.
*Residents and visitors along Hainan Island and Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of KETSANA (ONDOY).
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: KETSANA is expected to continue to move on a Westerly track, exiting PAR this afternoon. It shall continue intensifying while moving across the warm waters of the South China Sea. The 2 to 3-day medium-range forecast shows the system attaining typhoon strength on Monday, Sep 28 as it approaches the coast of Vietnam. KETSANA shall make its final landfall over Central Vietnam, over or very close to the City of Hue on Tuesday night, Sep 29. Rapid dissipation of this system is expected over Laos on Wednesday Sep 30th.
+ Effects: KETSANA's strong circulation remains large and continues to cover most of South China Sea. Its eastern outer rainbands has already left Western Luzon. Meanwhile, the western outer rainbands of KETSANA is expected to reach the coastal areas of Vietnam and Hainan Island this afternoon thru the evening. Rains and winds not exceeding 60 kph may be expected along the outer bands of the storm. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 100 up to 300 mm can be expected along KETSANA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 450 mm near the center of the storm...or along mountain slopes. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Vietnam and Hainan Island. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge.
+ Current SW Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Light to moderate southwesterly winds not in excess of 40 kph with occasional widespread rains, squalls (subasko) & thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN LUZON, METRO MANILA, BICOL REGION, MINDORO, BORACAY, MASBATE, WESTERN MINDANAO, PALAWAN AND WESTERN VISAYAS. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.
+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:
(1) Tropical Disturbance 98W (LPA) located west of the Marshall Islands continues to organize and intensify...currently located near lat 10.2 lon 158.1E...or about 1,490 km ESE of Guam or 3,570 km. East of Northern Mindanao, Philippines...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 40 kph near the center...moving WSW @ 26 kph towards Southern Marianas-Carolines Area.
(2) Tropical Disturbance 99W (LPA) still gaining pulsating cloud convection as it moves Westward towards the Southern Mariana Islands...currently located near lat 10.0N lon 147.3E...or about 465 km SE of Guam or 2,390 km. East of Northern Mindanao, Philippines...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 35 kph...moving West @ 26 kph.
These systems are expected to become Tropical Cyclones within the next 1 to 3 days. Watch for more information on this new disturbance as new data arrives. Kindly click the cool T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued everyday @ 2 PM PST (06 GMT) on tropical systems across the Western Pacific.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Sun September 27 2009
Location of Center: 15.5º N Lat 115.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 470 km (255 nm) WNW of Iba, Zambales
Distance 2: 505 km (272 nm) WSW of Dagupan City
Distance 3: 600 km (323 nm) WNW of Metro Manila
Distance 4: 715 km (385 nm) SE of Sanya, Hainan Is.
Distance 5: 795 km (430 nm) ESE of Da Nang, Vietnam
Distance 6: 860 km (465 nm) ESE of Hue, Vietnam
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 95 kph (50 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 120 kph (65 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 30 kph (16 kts)
General Direction: Vietnam-Hainan Is. Area
Size (in Diameter): 665 km (360 nm) / Avg/Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 18 ft (5.4 m)
T2K Final TrackMap (for Public): 12 PM PST Sun Sep 27
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 00 GMT Sun Sep 27
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 AM Sun Sep 27
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 3-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning
In Effect: NOW LOWERED.
Tropical Cyclone Watch
(1) Tropical Disturbance 98W (LPA) located west of the Marshall Islands continues to organize and intensify...currently located near lat 10.2 lon 158.1E...or about 1,490 km ESE of Guam or 3,570 km. East of Northern Mindanao, Philippines...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 40 kph near the center...moving WSW @ 26 kph towards Southern Marianas-Carolines Area.
(2) Tropical Disturbance 99W (LPA) still gaining pulsating cloud convection as it moves Westward towards the Southern Mariana Islands...currently located near lat 10.0N lon 147.3E...or about 465 km SE of Guam or 2,390 km. East of Northern Mindanao, Philippines...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 35 kph...moving West @ 26 kph.
(2) Tropical Disturbance 99W (LPA) still gaining pulsating cloud convection as it moves Westward towards the Southern Mariana Islands...currently located near lat 10.0N lon 147.3E...or about 465 km SE of Guam or 2,390 km. East of Northern Mindanao, Philippines...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 35 kph...moving West @ 26 kph.
Saturday, September 26, 2009
TROPICAL STORM KETSANA [ONDOY/17W/0916]
KETSANA (ONDOY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
TROPICAL STORM KETSANA [ONDOY/17W/0916]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 013
12:00 AM PST (16:00 GMT) Sun 27 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #007
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
Tropical Storm KETSANA (ONDOY) has quickly moved out of Central Luzon and is now along the coast of Zambales...currently gaining strength. Its heavy rainbands is no longer affecting Metro Manila.
*Residents and visitors along Hainan Island and Northern Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of KETSANA (ONDOY).
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: KETSANA is expected to continue to move on a Westerly track, exiting PAR tomorrow night. It shall continue intensifying while moving across the warm waters of the South China Sea. The 2 to 4-day medium-range forecast shows the system attaining typhoon strength on Monday evening, Sep 28 and shall turn WNW in the direction of Northern Vietnam. KETSANA shall make its final landfall over Vietnam, just to the WNW of Hue City by early Wednesday morning, Sep 30. Rapid dissipation of this system is expected over Laos on Thursday Oct 01.
+ Effects: KETSANA's strong mid-level circulation, together with the low-level circulation center (LLCC) has re-emerge over the South China Sea...Rapid reorganizing of this system is ongoing at this time. Its developing eastern outer rainbands affecting Zambales, Tarlac and Pangasinan. Rains and winds not exceeding 60 kph may be expected early this morning. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 200 up to 300 mm can be expected along KETSANA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 500 mm near the center of the storm...or along mountain slopes. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of La Union, Pangasinan, Bataan, Manila Bay, Mindoro & Zambales. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge.
+ Current SW Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Light to moderate southwesterly winds not in excess of 40 kph with occasional widespread rains & thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: BICOL REGION, MINDORO, BORACAY, MASBATE, WESTERN MINDANAO, PALAWAN AND WESTERN VISAYAS. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.
+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:
(1) Tropical Disturbance 98W (LPA) located west of the Marshall Islands continues to intensify...currently located near lat 11.2 lon 160.6E...or about 1,735 km ESE of Guam or 3,800 km. East of Southern Philippines...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 35 kph...forecast to move Westward@ 15 kph.
This system is expected to become a Tropical Cyclone within the next 12 to 24 hours. Watch for more information on this new disturbance as new data arrives. Kindly click the cool T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued everyday @ 2 PM PST (06 GMT) on tropical systems across the Western Pacific.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 12:00 AM PST Sun September 27 2009
Location of Center: 15.6� N Lat 118.4� E Lon
Distance 1: 175 km (95 nm) WNW of Iba, Zambales
Distance 2: 210 km (113 nm) WSW of Dagupan City
Distance 3: 300 km (162 nm) NW of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph (40 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 33 kph (18 kts)
General Direction: South China Sea
Size (in Diameter): 520 km (280 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 15 ft (4.5 m)
T2K TrackMap #12 (for Public): 6 PM PST Sat Sep 26
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 12 GMT Sat Sep 26
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 PM Sat Sep 26
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 4-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2) click to know meaning
In Effect: ZAMBALES.
The above areas will experience stormy weather tonight (with winds not exceeding 85 kph). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning
In Effect: METRO MANILA, PANGASINAN, PAMPANGA, TARLAC, NUEVA ECIJA, BULACAN, BATAAN, RIZAL, CAVITE, & LUBANG ISLAND.
The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph tonight until tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 1 & 2 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides.
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
TROPICAL STORM KETSANA [ONDOY/17W/0916]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 013
12:00 AM PST (16:00 GMT) Sun 27 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #007
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
Tropical Storm KETSANA (ONDOY) has quickly moved out of Central Luzon and is now along the coast of Zambales...currently gaining strength. Its heavy rainbands is no longer affecting Metro Manila.
*Residents and visitors along Hainan Island and Northern Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of KETSANA (ONDOY).
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: KETSANA is expected to continue to move on a Westerly track, exiting PAR tomorrow night. It shall continue intensifying while moving across the warm waters of the South China Sea. The 2 to 4-day medium-range forecast shows the system attaining typhoon strength on Monday evening, Sep 28 and shall turn WNW in the direction of Northern Vietnam. KETSANA shall make its final landfall over Vietnam, just to the WNW of Hue City by early Wednesday morning, Sep 30. Rapid dissipation of this system is expected over Laos on Thursday Oct 01.
+ Effects: KETSANA's strong mid-level circulation, together with the low-level circulation center (LLCC) has re-emerge over the South China Sea...Rapid reorganizing of this system is ongoing at this time. Its developing eastern outer rainbands affecting Zambales, Tarlac and Pangasinan. Rains and winds not exceeding 60 kph may be expected early this morning. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 200 up to 300 mm can be expected along KETSANA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 500 mm near the center of the storm...or along mountain slopes. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of La Union, Pangasinan, Bataan, Manila Bay, Mindoro & Zambales. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge.
+ Current SW Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Light to moderate southwesterly winds not in excess of 40 kph with occasional widespread rains & thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: BICOL REGION, MINDORO, BORACAY, MASBATE, WESTERN MINDANAO, PALAWAN AND WESTERN VISAYAS. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.
+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:
(1) Tropical Disturbance 98W (LPA) located west of the Marshall Islands continues to intensify...currently located near lat 11.2 lon 160.6E...or about 1,735 km ESE of Guam or 3,800 km. East of Southern Philippines...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 35 kph...forecast to move Westward@ 15 kph.
This system is expected to become a Tropical Cyclone within the next 12 to 24 hours. Watch for more information on this new disturbance as new data arrives. Kindly click the cool T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued everyday @ 2 PM PST (06 GMT) on tropical systems across the Western Pacific.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 12:00 AM PST Sun September 27 2009
Location of Center: 15.6� N Lat 118.4� E Lon
Distance 1: 175 km (95 nm) WNW of Iba, Zambales
Distance 2: 210 km (113 nm) WSW of Dagupan City
Distance 3: 300 km (162 nm) NW of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph (40 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 33 kph (18 kts)
General Direction: South China Sea
Size (in Diameter): 520 km (280 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 15 ft (4.5 m)
T2K TrackMap #12 (for Public): 6 PM PST Sat Sep 26
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 12 GMT Sat Sep 26
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 PM Sat Sep 26
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 4-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2) click to know meaning
In Effect: ZAMBALES.
The above areas will experience stormy weather tonight (with winds not exceeding 85 kph). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning
In Effect: METRO MANILA, PANGASINAN, PAMPANGA, TARLAC, NUEVA ECIJA, BULACAN, BATAAN, RIZAL, CAVITE, & LUBANG ISLAND.
The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph tonight until tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 1 & 2 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides.
Tropical Cyclone Watch
Tropical Disturbance 98W (LPA) located west of the Marshall Islands continues to intensify...currently located near lat 11.2 lon 160.6E...or about 1,735 km ESE of Guam or 3,800 km. East of Southern Philippines...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 35 kph...forecast to move Westward@ 15 kph.
Friday, September 25, 2009
TROPICAL STORM KETSANA [ONDOY/17W/0916]
KETSANA (ONDOY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 km/hr
TROPICAL STORM KETSANA [ONDOY/17W/0916]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 011
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT)
Sat 26 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #005
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
Tropical Storm ONDOY (17W) with international name KETSANA - is now approaching the coast of Baler, Aurora...its mid-level circulation currently making landfall over Nueva Ecija...Heavy rainbands affecting Metro Manila and Southern Tagalog Provinces - bringing widespread flooding.
*Residents and visitors along Luzon should closely monitor the progress of KETSANA (ONDOY).
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: KETSANA is expected to traverse the rugged terrain of Central Luzon this afternoon until nighttime. It shall accelerate further into the South China Sea early tomorrow morning. KETSANA shall weaken into a Tropical Depression as it crosses Luzon. The 2 to 5-day long-range forecast shows the system gaining more strength over the South China Sea as it churns closer to Hainan Island-Northern Viernam area on Tuesday morning. It shall pass very close to the Southern Coast of Hainan on Wednesday morning Sep 30 w/ projected wind speeds of 110 kph. KETSANA shall move into the Gulf of Tonkin Wednesday evening and make its final landfall over Northern Vietnam, SE of Hanoi City on Thursday Oct 1. Rapid dissipation of this system is expected on Friday Oct 02 over Laos.
+ Effects: ONDOY's strong mid-level circulation along with heavy rainbands has shrunked and became more compact bringing intense rainfall with strong winds across Metro Manila and parts of Southern Tagalog Provinces...Scattered rainbands continues to bring light to moderate to sometimes heavy rainfall w/ winds of up to 65 kph across Central, Western and Northern Luzon. Improving weather conditions has started over the Bicol Region today. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 100 mm can be expected along ONDOY's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 200 mm near the center of ONDOY..or along mountain slopes. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Northern Quezon, Aurora, La Union, Pangasinan, Bataan, Manila Bay & Zambales. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge.
+ Current SW Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Light to moderate southwesterly winds not in excess of 40 kph with occasional widespread rains & thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: MASBATE, WESTERN MINDANAO, PALAWAN AND WESTERN VISAYAS. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Sat September 26 2009
Location of Center: 15.6� N Lat 122.8� E Lon
Distance 1: 100 km (55 nm) SE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 2: 130 km (70 nm) ESE of Baler, Aurora
Distance 3: 165 km (90 nm) North of Daet, Cam Norte
Distance 4: 195 km (105 nm) East of Cabanatuan City
Distance 5: 215 km (115 nm) NE of Metro Manila
Distance 6: 225 km (122 nm) NNW of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 7: 250 km (135 nm) ESE of Baguio City
Distance 8: 270 km (145 nm) ESE of Dagupan City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 22 kph (12 kts)
General Direction: Southern Aurora-Nueva Vizcaya Area
Size (in Diameter): 445 km (240 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 13 ft (3.9 m)
T2K TrackMap #11 (for Public): 12 PM PST Sat Sep 26
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 0000Z Sat Sep 26
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 AM Sat Sep 26
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2) click to know meaning
Now In Effect: AURORA, QUIRINO, NUEVA VIZCAYA, NUEVA ECIJA, PANGASINAN, TARLAC, ZAMBALES, PAMPANGA, BULACAN, RIZAL, NORTHERN QUEZON, AND POLILLO.
The above areas will experience stormy weather today (with winds not exceeding 85 kph). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning
In Effect: METRO MANILA, ISABELA, MT. PROVINCE, IFUGAO, BENGUET, LA UNION, ILOCOS SUR, REST OF QUEZON, LAGUNA, CAVITE, BATANGAS, MINDORO, LUBANG IS., MARINDUQUE, CAMARINES NORTE, AND BATAAN.
The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides.
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 km/hr
TROPICAL STORM KETSANA [ONDOY/17W/0916]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 011
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT)
Sat 26 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #005
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
Tropical Storm ONDOY (17W) with international name KETSANA - is now approaching the coast of Baler, Aurora...its mid-level circulation currently making landfall over Nueva Ecija...Heavy rainbands affecting Metro Manila and Southern Tagalog Provinces - bringing widespread flooding.
*Residents and visitors along Luzon should closely monitor the progress of KETSANA (ONDOY).
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: KETSANA is expected to traverse the rugged terrain of Central Luzon this afternoon until nighttime. It shall accelerate further into the South China Sea early tomorrow morning. KETSANA shall weaken into a Tropical Depression as it crosses Luzon. The 2 to 5-day long-range forecast shows the system gaining more strength over the South China Sea as it churns closer to Hainan Island-Northern Viernam area on Tuesday morning. It shall pass very close to the Southern Coast of Hainan on Wednesday morning Sep 30 w/ projected wind speeds of 110 kph. KETSANA shall move into the Gulf of Tonkin Wednesday evening and make its final landfall over Northern Vietnam, SE of Hanoi City on Thursday Oct 1. Rapid dissipation of this system is expected on Friday Oct 02 over Laos.
+ Effects: ONDOY's strong mid-level circulation along with heavy rainbands has shrunked and became more compact bringing intense rainfall with strong winds across Metro Manila and parts of Southern Tagalog Provinces...Scattered rainbands continues to bring light to moderate to sometimes heavy rainfall w/ winds of up to 65 kph across Central, Western and Northern Luzon. Improving weather conditions has started over the Bicol Region today. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 100 mm can be expected along ONDOY's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 200 mm near the center of ONDOY..or along mountain slopes. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Northern Quezon, Aurora, La Union, Pangasinan, Bataan, Manila Bay & Zambales. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge.
+ Current SW Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Light to moderate southwesterly winds not in excess of 40 kph with occasional widespread rains & thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: MASBATE, WESTERN MINDANAO, PALAWAN AND WESTERN VISAYAS. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Sat September 26 2009
Location of Center: 15.6� N Lat 122.8� E Lon
Distance 1: 100 km (55 nm) SE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 2: 130 km (70 nm) ESE of Baler, Aurora
Distance 3: 165 km (90 nm) North of Daet, Cam Norte
Distance 4: 195 km (105 nm) East of Cabanatuan City
Distance 5: 215 km (115 nm) NE of Metro Manila
Distance 6: 225 km (122 nm) NNW of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 7: 250 km (135 nm) ESE of Baguio City
Distance 8: 270 km (145 nm) ESE of Dagupan City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 22 kph (12 kts)
General Direction: Southern Aurora-Nueva Vizcaya Area
Size (in Diameter): 445 km (240 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 13 ft (3.9 m)
T2K TrackMap #11 (for Public): 12 PM PST Sat Sep 26
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 0000Z Sat Sep 26
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 AM Sat Sep 26
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2) click to know meaning
Now In Effect: AURORA, QUIRINO, NUEVA VIZCAYA, NUEVA ECIJA, PANGASINAN, TARLAC, ZAMBALES, PAMPANGA, BULACAN, RIZAL, NORTHERN QUEZON, AND POLILLO.
The above areas will experience stormy weather today (with winds not exceeding 85 kph). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning
In Effect: METRO MANILA, ISABELA, MT. PROVINCE, IFUGAO, BENGUET, LA UNION, ILOCOS SUR, REST OF QUEZON, LAGUNA, CAVITE, BATANGAS, MINDORO, LUBANG IS., MARINDUQUE, CAMARINES NORTE, AND BATAAN.
The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONDOY [17W]
ONDOY (17W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONDOY [17W]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 008
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT)
Fri 25 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #002
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
ONDOY (17W) remains a Tropical Depression as it nears the coast of Northern Bicol...Its rainbands has been displaced 100 km. west of the low-level center and is spreading across the Bicol Region, Northern Samar and the rest of Luzon.
*Residents and visitors along Luzon and Bicol Region should closely monitor the progress of ONDOY.
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: ONDOY is expected to track slightly WNW for the next 24 hours and slowly intensify. The 2 to 5-day long-range forecast shows the system passing more or less 120 km north of Bicol Region tomorrow afternoon and shall make landfall just south of Baler, Aurora early Sunday morning & cross Central Luzon. ONDOY shall be off the South China Sea on Sunday afternoon. It shall reach Tropical Storm status on Monday Sep 28 and exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility. ONDOY shall make landfall anew over Central Vietnam, near Hue City on Wednesday noontime, Sep 30.
+ Effects: ONDOY's circulation remains disorganized due to moderate easterly vertical wind shear aloft...its rain cloud convection (rainbands) has been displaced 120 km. from the low-level center and continues affecting Northern Samar and Bicol Region including Quezon Provinces and is now spreading across the whole of Luzon including Metro Manila. Light to moderate to sometimes heavy rains w/ winds of up to 55 kph can be expected along ONDOY's rainbands. Stormy conditions is possible if the system rapidly intensifies as it passes north of Bicol Region tomorrow morning. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 100 mm can be expected along ONDOY's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 200 mm near the center of ONDOY..or along mountain slopes. People living around the slopes of Mayon Volcano in Albay & of Bulusan Volcano in Sorsogon - especially along the areas where possible MUDFLOWS (LAHAR) FLOWS (mixture of volcanic mud and water) are located must stay alert as moderate to heavy rains associated by this system are likely to affect the area beginning today. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.
+ Current SW Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Light to moderate southwesterly winds not in excess of 40 kph with occasional widespread rains or thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN MINDANAO, PALAWAN AND WESTERN VISAYAS. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Fri September 25 2009
Location of Exposed Center: 14.1� N Lat 126.7� E Lon
Distance 1: 265 km (143 nm) ENE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 315 km (170 nm) East of Gota Beach, Caramoan
Distance 3: 315 km (170 nm) NE of Sorsogon City
Distance 4: 345 km (185 nm) ENE of Legazpi City
Distance 5: 380 km (205 nm) ENE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 6: 410 km (220 nm) East of Daet, Cam Norte
Distance 7: 545 km (295 nm) ESE of Infanta, Quezon
Distance 8: 605 km (325 nm) ESE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Depression
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
Central Pressure: 1004 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 17 kph (09 kts)
General Direction: Polillo-Northern Quezon Area
Size (in Diameter): 500 km (270 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 ft (3.0 m)
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 6 PM PST Fri Sep 25
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 06Z Fri Sep 25
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2) click to know meaning
Now In Effect: CATANDUANES, CAMARINES NORTE, CAMARINES SUR & POLILLO ISLAND.
The above areas will experience stormy weather tonight (with winds from 60 to 80 kph). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning
In Effect: ALBAY, BURIAS ISLAND, QUEZON, MARINDUQUE, RIZAL, BULACAN, AURORA, NUEVA ECIJA, NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO & ISABELA.
The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph tonight and tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides.
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONDOY [17W]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 008
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT)
Fri 25 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #002
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
ONDOY (17W) remains a Tropical Depression as it nears the coast of Northern Bicol...Its rainbands has been displaced 100 km. west of the low-level center and is spreading across the Bicol Region, Northern Samar and the rest of Luzon.
*Residents and visitors along Luzon and Bicol Region should closely monitor the progress of ONDOY.
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: ONDOY is expected to track slightly WNW for the next 24 hours and slowly intensify. The 2 to 5-day long-range forecast shows the system passing more or less 120 km north of Bicol Region tomorrow afternoon and shall make landfall just south of Baler, Aurora early Sunday morning & cross Central Luzon. ONDOY shall be off the South China Sea on Sunday afternoon. It shall reach Tropical Storm status on Monday Sep 28 and exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility. ONDOY shall make landfall anew over Central Vietnam, near Hue City on Wednesday noontime, Sep 30.
+ Effects: ONDOY's circulation remains disorganized due to moderate easterly vertical wind shear aloft...its rain cloud convection (rainbands) has been displaced 120 km. from the low-level center and continues affecting Northern Samar and Bicol Region including Quezon Provinces and is now spreading across the whole of Luzon including Metro Manila. Light to moderate to sometimes heavy rains w/ winds of up to 55 kph can be expected along ONDOY's rainbands. Stormy conditions is possible if the system rapidly intensifies as it passes north of Bicol Region tomorrow morning. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 100 mm can be expected along ONDOY's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 200 mm near the center of ONDOY..or along mountain slopes. People living around the slopes of Mayon Volcano in Albay & of Bulusan Volcano in Sorsogon - especially along the areas where possible MUDFLOWS (LAHAR) FLOWS (mixture of volcanic mud and water) are located must stay alert as moderate to heavy rains associated by this system are likely to affect the area beginning today. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.
+ Current SW Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Light to moderate southwesterly winds not in excess of 40 kph with occasional widespread rains or thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN MINDANAO, PALAWAN AND WESTERN VISAYAS. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Fri September 25 2009
Location of Exposed Center: 14.1� N Lat 126.7� E Lon
Distance 1: 265 km (143 nm) ENE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 315 km (170 nm) East of Gota Beach, Caramoan
Distance 3: 315 km (170 nm) NE of Sorsogon City
Distance 4: 345 km (185 nm) ENE of Legazpi City
Distance 5: 380 km (205 nm) ENE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 6: 410 km (220 nm) East of Daet, Cam Norte
Distance 7: 545 km (295 nm) ESE of Infanta, Quezon
Distance 8: 605 km (325 nm) ESE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Depression
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
Central Pressure: 1004 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 17 kph (09 kts)
General Direction: Polillo-Northern Quezon Area
Size (in Diameter): 500 km (270 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 ft (3.0 m)
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 6 PM PST Fri Sep 25
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 06Z Fri Sep 25
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2) click to know meaning
Now In Effect: CATANDUANES, CAMARINES NORTE, CAMARINES SUR & POLILLO ISLAND.
The above areas will experience stormy weather tonight (with winds from 60 to 80 kph). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning
In Effect: ALBAY, BURIAS ISLAND, QUEZON, MARINDUQUE, RIZAL, BULACAN, AURORA, NUEVA ECIJA, NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO & ISABELA.
The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph tonight and tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONDOY [17W]
ONDOY (17W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONDOY [17W]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 007
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT)
Fri 25 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #001
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
Tropical Depression ONDOY (17W) continues to slow down as it moves closer to the northern coast of Bicol Region. Rainbands affecting the Bicol Region, Northern Samar and portions of Eastern Luzon.
*Residents and visitors along Central Luzon and Bicol Region should closely monitor the progress of ONDOY.
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: ONDOY is expected to track WNW for the next 24 hours and slowly intensify. The 2 to 3-day medium-range forecast shows the system passing more or less 150 km north of Bicol Region tomorrow morning or in the afternoon and shall make landfall just south of Baler, Aurora Sunday morning & cross Central Luzon. ONDOY shall be off the South China Sea on Monday morning, Sep 28.
+ Effects: ONDOY's circulation continues trying to organize despite moderate vertical wind shear, its rain clouds is displaced 100-200 km. from the low-level center...western and southwestern rainbands continues to affect Samar and Bicol Region including Quezon Provinces today. Light to moderate to sometimes heavy rains w/ winds of up to 55 kph can be expected along ONDOY's rainbands. Stormy conditions is possible if the system rapidly intensifies as it passes north of Bicol Region tomorrow morning. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 100 mm can be expected along ONDOY's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 200 mm near the center of ONDOY..or along mountain slopes. People living around the slopes of Mayon Volcano in Albay & of Bulusan Volcano in Sorsogon - especially along the areas where possible MUDFLOWS (LAHAR) FLOWS (mixture of volcanic mud and water) are located must stay alert as moderate to heavy rains associated by this system are likely to affect the area beginning today. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.
+ Current SW Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Light to moderate southwesterly winds not in excess of 40 kph with occasional widespread rains or thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN MINDANAO, PALAWAN AND WESTERN VISAYAS. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Fri September 25 2009
Location of Mid-Level Center: 14.3� N Lat 127.3� E Lon
Distance 1: 335 km (182 nm) ENE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 380 km (205 nm) ENE of Gota Beach, Caramoan
Distance 3: 385 km (208 nm) ENE of Sorsogon City
Distance 4: 410 km (220 nm) ENE of Legazpi City
Distance 5: 450 km (245 nm) ENE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 6: 475 km (255 nm) East of Daet, Cam Norte
Distance 7: 605 km (327 nm) ESE of Infanta, Quezon
Distance 8: 670 km (362 nm) East of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Depression
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
Central Pressure: 998 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 13 kph (07 kts)
General Direction: Northern Quezon-Southern Aurora Area
Size (in Diameter): 500 km (270 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 ft (3.0 m)
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 12 PM PST Fri Sep 25
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 00Z Fri Sep 25
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning
In Effect: AURORA, ISABELA, QUIRINO, NUEVA ECIJA, QUEZON, POLILLO IS., CAMARINES SUR, CAMARINES NORTE, & CATANDUANES.
The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides.
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONDOY [17W]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 007
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT)
Fri 25 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #001
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
Tropical Depression ONDOY (17W) continues to slow down as it moves closer to the northern coast of Bicol Region. Rainbands affecting the Bicol Region, Northern Samar and portions of Eastern Luzon.
*Residents and visitors along Central Luzon and Bicol Region should closely monitor the progress of ONDOY.
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: ONDOY is expected to track WNW for the next 24 hours and slowly intensify. The 2 to 3-day medium-range forecast shows the system passing more or less 150 km north of Bicol Region tomorrow morning or in the afternoon and shall make landfall just south of Baler, Aurora Sunday morning & cross Central Luzon. ONDOY shall be off the South China Sea on Monday morning, Sep 28.
+ Effects: ONDOY's circulation continues trying to organize despite moderate vertical wind shear, its rain clouds is displaced 100-200 km. from the low-level center...western and southwestern rainbands continues to affect Samar and Bicol Region including Quezon Provinces today. Light to moderate to sometimes heavy rains w/ winds of up to 55 kph can be expected along ONDOY's rainbands. Stormy conditions is possible if the system rapidly intensifies as it passes north of Bicol Region tomorrow morning. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 100 mm can be expected along ONDOY's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 200 mm near the center of ONDOY..or along mountain slopes. People living around the slopes of Mayon Volcano in Albay & of Bulusan Volcano in Sorsogon - especially along the areas where possible MUDFLOWS (LAHAR) FLOWS (mixture of volcanic mud and water) are located must stay alert as moderate to heavy rains associated by this system are likely to affect the area beginning today. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.
+ Current SW Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Light to moderate southwesterly winds not in excess of 40 kph with occasional widespread rains or thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN MINDANAO, PALAWAN AND WESTERN VISAYAS. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Fri September 25 2009
Location of Mid-Level Center: 14.3� N Lat 127.3� E Lon
Distance 1: 335 km (182 nm) ENE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 380 km (205 nm) ENE of Gota Beach, Caramoan
Distance 3: 385 km (208 nm) ENE of Sorsogon City
Distance 4: 410 km (220 nm) ENE of Legazpi City
Distance 5: 450 km (245 nm) ENE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 6: 475 km (255 nm) East of Daet, Cam Norte
Distance 7: 605 km (327 nm) ESE of Infanta, Quezon
Distance 8: 670 km (362 nm) East of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Depression
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
Central Pressure: 998 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 13 kph (07 kts)
General Direction: Northern Quezon-Southern Aurora Area
Size (in Diameter): 500 km (270 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 ft (3.0 m)
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 12 PM PST Fri Sep 25
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 00Z Fri Sep 25
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning
In Effect: AURORA, ISABELA, QUIRINO, NUEVA ECIJA, QUEZON, POLILLO IS., CAMARINES SUR, CAMARINES NORTE, & CATANDUANES.
The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides.
Thursday, September 24, 2009
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONDOY [96W]
ONDOY (96W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 35 km/hr
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONDOY [96W]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 005
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT)
Thu 24 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
Tropical Depression ONDOY (96W) rapidly accelerates WSW closer to Northern Bicol...developing rainbands expected to spread across Bicol Region tonight until tomorrow.
*Residents and visitors along Luzon and Bicol Region should closely monitor the progress of ONDOY.
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: ONDOY is expected to move WSW to Westward passing more or less 100 km. north of Bicol Region tomorrow morning. The 3-day medium-range forecast shows the system becoming a strong tropical storm as it crosses Central Luzon either tomorrow evening or Saturday morning and shall be over the South China Sea on Sunday Sep 27.
+ Effects: ONDOY's circulation continues to improve with its western and southern rainbands expected to affect Samar and Bicol Region including Quezon beginning tonight until tomorrow. Widespread moderate to heavy rains w/ increasing winds of up to 60 kph can be expected along the ONDOY's rainbands. Stormy conditions is possible if the system rapidly intensifies as it passes north of Bicol Region tomorrow. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 150 mm can be expected along ONDOY's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 300 mm near the center of ONDOY or along its thick rainbands. People living around the slopes of Mayon Volcano in Albay & of Bulusan Volcano in Sorsogon - especially along the areas where possible MUDFLOWS (LAHAR) FLOWS (mixture of volcanic mud and water) are located must stay alert as moderate to heavy rains associated by this system are likely to affect the area beginning today. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.
+ Current SW Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Light to moderate southwesterly winds not in excess of 40 kph with occasional widespread rains or thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: METRO MANILA, CENTRAL & SOUTHERN LUZON, MASBATE, NORTHERN MINDANAO, PALAWAN AND REST OF VISAYAS. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Thu September 24 2009
Location of Center: 13.9� N Lat 127.2� E Lon
Distance 1: 315 km (170 nm) ENE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 360 km (195 nm) ENE of Sorsogon City
Distance 3: 365 km (200 nm) East of Gota Beach, Caramoan
Distance 4: 390 km (210 nm) ENE of Legazpi City
Distance 5: 435 km (235 nm) East of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 6: 465 km (252 nm) East of Daet, Cam Norte
Distance 7: 600 km (323 nm) ESE of Infanta, Quezon
Distance 8: 660 km (355 nm) ESE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Depression
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WSW @ 28 kph (15 kts)
General Direction: Northern Bicol
Size (in Diameter): 500 km (270 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 ft (3.0 m)
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 6 PM PST Thu Sep 24
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 04Z Thu Sep 24
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 35 km/hr
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONDOY [96W]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 005
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT)
Thu 24 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
Tropical Depression ONDOY (96W) rapidly accelerates WSW closer to Northern Bicol...developing rainbands expected to spread across Bicol Region tonight until tomorrow.
*Residents and visitors along Luzon and Bicol Region should closely monitor the progress of ONDOY.
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: ONDOY is expected to move WSW to Westward passing more or less 100 km. north of Bicol Region tomorrow morning. The 3-day medium-range forecast shows the system becoming a strong tropical storm as it crosses Central Luzon either tomorrow evening or Saturday morning and shall be over the South China Sea on Sunday Sep 27.
+ Effects: ONDOY's circulation continues to improve with its western and southern rainbands expected to affect Samar and Bicol Region including Quezon beginning tonight until tomorrow. Widespread moderate to heavy rains w/ increasing winds of up to 60 kph can be expected along the ONDOY's rainbands. Stormy conditions is possible if the system rapidly intensifies as it passes north of Bicol Region tomorrow. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 150 mm can be expected along ONDOY's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 300 mm near the center of ONDOY or along its thick rainbands. People living around the slopes of Mayon Volcano in Albay & of Bulusan Volcano in Sorsogon - especially along the areas where possible MUDFLOWS (LAHAR) FLOWS (mixture of volcanic mud and water) are located must stay alert as moderate to heavy rains associated by this system are likely to affect the area beginning today. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.
+ Current SW Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Light to moderate southwesterly winds not in excess of 40 kph with occasional widespread rains or thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: METRO MANILA, CENTRAL & SOUTHERN LUZON, MASBATE, NORTHERN MINDANAO, PALAWAN AND REST OF VISAYAS. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Thu September 24 2009
Location of Center: 13.9� N Lat 127.2� E Lon
Distance 1: 315 km (170 nm) ENE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 360 km (195 nm) ENE of Sorsogon City
Distance 3: 365 km (200 nm) East of Gota Beach, Caramoan
Distance 4: 390 km (210 nm) ENE of Legazpi City
Distance 5: 435 km (235 nm) East of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 6: 465 km (252 nm) East of Daet, Cam Norte
Distance 7: 600 km (323 nm) ESE of Infanta, Quezon
Distance 8: 660 km (355 nm) ESE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Depression
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WSW @ 28 kph (15 kts)
General Direction: Northern Bicol
Size (in Diameter): 500 km (270 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 ft (3.0 m)
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 6 PM PST Thu Sep 24
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 04Z Thu Sep 24
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wednesday, September 23, 2009
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONDOY [96W]
PRE-ONDOY (96W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 35 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 35 km/hr
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONDOY [96W]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 004
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT)
Thu 24 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
Tropical Depression ONDOY (96W) intensifying as it drifts WSW across the Philippine Sea...developing outer rainbands approaching the Bicol Region.
*Residents and visitors along the Eastern Coast of Luzon and Bicol Region should closely monitor the progress of ONDOY.
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: ONDOY is expected to continue consolidate and intensify and shall move West to WNW towards Luzon. The 3-day medium-range forecast shows the system becoming a strong tropical storm as it moves West to WNW. It shall be passing more or less 150 km north of Northern Bicol on Saturday morning Sep 26...approaching the coast of Aurora on Saturday morning Sep 27.
+ Effects: ONDOY's circulation has reorganized w/ its western outer (rain) bands now approaching the Bicol and Samar Provinces. Widespread moderate to heavy rains w/ increasing winds of up to 60 kph can be expected along the outer bands. Stormy conditions is possible if the system rapidly intensifies. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 150 mm can be expected along ONDOY's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 300 mm near the center of ONDOY along its thick rainbands. People living around the slopes of Mayon Volcano in Albay & of Bulusan Volcano in Sorsogon - especially along the areas where possible MUDFLOWS (LAHAR) FLOWS (mixture of volcanic mud and water) are located must stay alert as moderate to heavy rains associated by this system are likely to affect the area beginning today. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.
+ Current SW Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Light to moderate southwesterly winds not in excess of 40 kph with occasional widespread rains or thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: METRO MANILA, CENTRAL & SOUTHERN LUZON, MASBATE, NORTHERN MINDANAO, PALAWAN AND REST OF VISAYAS. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Thu September 24 2009
Location of Center: 14.3� N Lat 129.1� E Lon
Distance 1: 525 km (290 nm) ENE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 570 km (308 nm) ENE of Sorsogon City
Distance 3: 575 km (310 nm) ENE of Gota Beach, Caramoan
Distance 4: 600 km (325 nm) ENE of Legazpi City
Distance 5: 640 km (345 nm) ENE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 6: 670 km (362 nm) East of Daet, Cam Norte
Distance 7: 800 km (432 nm) ESE of Infanta, Quezon
Distance 8: 820 km (443 nm) ESE of Baler, Aurora
Distance 9: 860 km (465 nm) ESE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Depression
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WSW @ 11 kph (06 kts)
General Direction: Eastern Luzon
Size (in Diameter): 500 km (270 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 ft (3.0 m)
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 12 PM PST Thu Sep 24
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 35 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 35 km/hr
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONDOY [96W]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 004
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT)
Thu 24 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
Tropical Depression ONDOY (96W) intensifying as it drifts WSW across the Philippine Sea...developing outer rainbands approaching the Bicol Region.
*Residents and visitors along the Eastern Coast of Luzon and Bicol Region should closely monitor the progress of ONDOY.
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: ONDOY is expected to continue consolidate and intensify and shall move West to WNW towards Luzon. The 3-day medium-range forecast shows the system becoming a strong tropical storm as it moves West to WNW. It shall be passing more or less 150 km north of Northern Bicol on Saturday morning Sep 26...approaching the coast of Aurora on Saturday morning Sep 27.
+ Effects: ONDOY's circulation has reorganized w/ its western outer (rain) bands now approaching the Bicol and Samar Provinces. Widespread moderate to heavy rains w/ increasing winds of up to 60 kph can be expected along the outer bands. Stormy conditions is possible if the system rapidly intensifies. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 150 mm can be expected along ONDOY's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 300 mm near the center of ONDOY along its thick rainbands. People living around the slopes of Mayon Volcano in Albay & of Bulusan Volcano in Sorsogon - especially along the areas where possible MUDFLOWS (LAHAR) FLOWS (mixture of volcanic mud and water) are located must stay alert as moderate to heavy rains associated by this system are likely to affect the area beginning today. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.
+ Current SW Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Light to moderate southwesterly winds not in excess of 40 kph with occasional widespread rains or thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: METRO MANILA, CENTRAL & SOUTHERN LUZON, MASBATE, NORTHERN MINDANAO, PALAWAN AND REST OF VISAYAS. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Thu September 24 2009
Location of Center: 14.3� N Lat 129.1� E Lon
Distance 1: 525 km (290 nm) ENE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 570 km (308 nm) ENE of Sorsogon City
Distance 3: 575 km (310 nm) ENE of Gota Beach, Caramoan
Distance 4: 600 km (325 nm) ENE of Legazpi City
Distance 5: 640 km (345 nm) ENE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 6: 670 km (362 nm) East of Daet, Cam Norte
Distance 7: 800 km (432 nm) ESE of Infanta, Quezon
Distance 8: 820 km (443 nm) ESE of Baler, Aurora
Distance 9: 860 km (465 nm) ESE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Depression
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WSW @ 11 kph (06 kts)
General Direction: Eastern Luzon
Size (in Diameter): 500 km (270 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 ft (3.0 m)
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 12 PM PST Thu Sep 24
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PRE-ONDOY [96W]
PRE-ONDOY (96W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 30 km/hr
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PRE-ONDOY [96W]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 002
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Wed 23 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
Tropical Depression PRE-ONDOY (96W) drifting Westward across the warm Philippine Sea...may intensify as it heads towards Eastern Luzon.
*Residents and visitors along the Eastern Coast of Luzon and Bicol Region should closely monitor the progress of PRE-ONDOY.
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: PRE-ONDOY is expected to continue consolidate and intensify while moving on a slow westward to Luzon. The 3-day initial forecast shows the system becoming a strong tropical storm as it moves closer to Central Luzon. It shall be passing more or less 200 km north of Northern Bicol on Saturday Sep 26. More forecast outlook will be issued later.
+ Effects: PRE-ONDOY's circulation continues to organize off the Philippine Sea...Its western outer rainbands expected to reach the Bicol Region and Samar Provinces tomorrow.
+ Current SW Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Light to moderate southwesterly winds not in excess of 40 kph with occasional widespread rains or thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: METRO MANILA, CENTRAL & SOUTHERN LUZON, BICOL REGION, MASBATE, NORTHERN MINDANAO, PALAWAN AND REST OF VISAYAS. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.
+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:
(1) Tropical Disturbance 95W (LPA) located off the South China Sea continues to move towards Vietnam's coast...currently located near lat 15.0 lon 112.8E...or about 510 km ESE of Da Nang, Vietnam...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph...forecast to move West slowly.
These systems will be closely monitored for potential development into a Tropical Cyclone within the next 2 to 3 hours. Watch for more information on this new disturbance as new data arrives. Kindly click the cool T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued everyday @ 2 PM PST (06 GMT) on tropical systems across the Western Pacific.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Wed September 23 2009
Location of Center: 14.9� N Lat 132.5� E Lon
Distance 1: 895 km (483 nm) ENE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 945 km (510 nm) ENE of Gota Beach, Caramoan
Distance 3: 1,010 km (545 nm) ENE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 4: 1,175 km (635 nm) ESE of Baler, Aurora
Distance 5: 1,125 km (607 nm) ESE of Casiguran, Aurora
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Depression
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
Central Pressure: 1004 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 07 kph (04 kts)
General Direction: Eastern Luzon
Size (in Diameter): 500 km (270 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 9 ft (2.7 m)
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 6 PM PST Wed Sep 23
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 30 km/hr
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PRE-ONDOY [96W]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 002
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Wed 23 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
Tropical Depression PRE-ONDOY (96W) drifting Westward across the warm Philippine Sea...may intensify as it heads towards Eastern Luzon.
*Residents and visitors along the Eastern Coast of Luzon and Bicol Region should closely monitor the progress of PRE-ONDOY.
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: PRE-ONDOY is expected to continue consolidate and intensify while moving on a slow westward to Luzon. The 3-day initial forecast shows the system becoming a strong tropical storm as it moves closer to Central Luzon. It shall be passing more or less 200 km north of Northern Bicol on Saturday Sep 26. More forecast outlook will be issued later.
+ Effects: PRE-ONDOY's circulation continues to organize off the Philippine Sea...Its western outer rainbands expected to reach the Bicol Region and Samar Provinces tomorrow.
+ Current SW Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Light to moderate southwesterly winds not in excess of 40 kph with occasional widespread rains or thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: METRO MANILA, CENTRAL & SOUTHERN LUZON, BICOL REGION, MASBATE, NORTHERN MINDANAO, PALAWAN AND REST OF VISAYAS. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.
+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:
(1) Tropical Disturbance 95W (LPA) located off the South China Sea continues to move towards Vietnam's coast...currently located near lat 15.0 lon 112.8E...or about 510 km ESE of Da Nang, Vietnam...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph...forecast to move West slowly.
These systems will be closely monitored for potential development into a Tropical Cyclone within the next 2 to 3 hours. Watch for more information on this new disturbance as new data arrives. Kindly click the cool T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued everyday @ 2 PM PST (06 GMT) on tropical systems across the Western Pacific.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Wed September 23 2009
Location of Center: 14.9� N Lat 132.5� E Lon
Distance 1: 895 km (483 nm) ENE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 945 km (510 nm) ENE of Gota Beach, Caramoan
Distance 3: 1,010 km (545 nm) ENE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 4: 1,175 km (635 nm) ESE of Baler, Aurora
Distance 5: 1,125 km (607 nm) ESE of Casiguran, Aurora
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Depression
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
Central Pressure: 1004 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 07 kph (04 kts)
General Direction: Eastern Luzon
Size (in Diameter): 500 km (270 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 9 ft (2.7 m)
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 6 PM PST Wed Sep 23
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
24-HOUR PUBLIC WEATHER FORECAST
SYPNOSIS:
At 2:00 p.m. today, a Low Pressure Area (LPA) was estimated based on satellite and surface data at 840 kms East of Visayas (12.5°N 133.3°E). Southwest monsoon affecting Southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao.
FORECAST:
Southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao will experience cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms becoming frequent rains over the Western sections of Southern Luzon and Visayas. The rest of Luzon will have mostly cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms.
Moderate to strong winds blowing from the Southwest will prevail over Central and Southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao, and the coastal waters along these areas will be moderate to rough. Elsewhere, winds will be light to moderate blowing from the South to Southeast with slight to moderate seas except during thunderstorms.
(in Filipino).
SOURCE; PAGASA
At 2:00 p.m. today, a Low Pressure Area (LPA) was estimated based on satellite and surface data at 840 kms East of Visayas (12.5°N 133.3°E). Southwest monsoon affecting Southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao.
FORECAST:
Southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao will experience cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms becoming frequent rains over the Western sections of Southern Luzon and Visayas. The rest of Luzon will have mostly cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms.
Moderate to strong winds blowing from the Southwest will prevail over Central and Southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao, and the coastal waters along these areas will be moderate to rough. Elsewhere, winds will be light to moderate blowing from the South to Southeast with slight to moderate seas except during thunderstorms.
(in Filipino).
SOURCE; PAGASA
Sunday, September 20, 2009
TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN [15W/0914]
CHOI-WAN (15W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 110 km/hr
TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN [15W/0914]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 024 [FINAL]
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Sun 20 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #033 (FINAL)
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
CHOI-WAN (15W) losing tropical characteristics...downgraded to a Tropical Storm...expected to become Extratropical tonight.
*This is the Final Advisory on this tropical cyclone.
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: N/A.
+ Effects: N/A.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Sun September 20 2009
Location of Eye: 34.6º N Lat 148.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 765 km (413 nm) ESE of Tokyo, Japan
Distance 2: 1,180 km (638 nm) South of Kuril Islands
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 110 kph (60 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 140 kph (75 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Central Pressure: 978 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: NE @ 39 kph (21 kts)
General Direction: NW Pacific Ocean
Size (in Diameter): 945 km (510 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 30 ft (9.1 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PST Sun Sep 20
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 00Z Sun Sep 20
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 AM Sun Sep 20
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 1-day Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 110 km/hr
TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN [15W/0914]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 024 [FINAL]
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Sun 20 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #033 (FINAL)
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
CHOI-WAN (15W) losing tropical characteristics...downgraded to a Tropical Storm...expected to become Extratropical tonight.
*This is the Final Advisory on this tropical cyclone.
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: N/A.
+ Effects: N/A.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Sun September 20 2009
Location of Eye: 34.6º N Lat 148.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 765 km (413 nm) ESE of Tokyo, Japan
Distance 2: 1,180 km (638 nm) South of Kuril Islands
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 110 kph (60 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 140 kph (75 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Central Pressure: 978 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: NE @ 39 kph (21 kts)
General Direction: NW Pacific Ocean
Size (in Diameter): 945 km (510 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 30 ft (9.1 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PST Sun Sep 20
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 00Z Sun Sep 20
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 AM Sun Sep 20
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 1-day Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
Saturday, September 19, 2009
TYPHOON CHOI-WAN [15W/0914]
CHOI-WAN (15W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
TYPHOON CHOI-WAN [15W/0914]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 022
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Sat 19 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #030
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
CHOI-WAN (15W) rapidly breaking down as it enters unfavorable atmospheric conditions aloft...just a Category 1 Typhoon.
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: CHOI-WAN is expected to continue rapidly accelerating towards the NE to ENE-ward across the upper portion of the NW Pacific Ocean. The 2-day Short-Range Forecast shows CHOI-WAN speeding up towards the NE to ENE, weakening into a strong Tropical Storm tomorrow. It shall become an Extratropical Cyclone tomorrow evening or on Monday Sep 21.
+ Effects: CHOI-WAN's deteriorating main core remains at open seas...its southern outer bands has started to move away from Chichi Jima Island, where strong winds w/ light rains can still be expected this evening. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 250 mm can be expected along CHOI-WAN's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 400 mm near the center of CHOI-WAN or along its Eyewall. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Iwo To and Chichi Jima Island Group. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Sat September 19 2009
Location of Eye: 30.2º N Lat 143.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 355 km (192 nm) NNE of Chichi Jima
Distance 2: 685 km (370 nm) SSE of Tokyo, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 140 kph (75 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 165 kph (90 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Category 1
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 4-5 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
Central Pressure: 967 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: NE @ 46 kph (25 kts)
General Direction: NW Pacific Ocean
Size (in Diameter): 945 km (510 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 32 ft (9.7 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PST Sat Sep 19
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 06Z Sat Sep 19
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 PM Sat Sep 19
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 2-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
TYPHOON CHOI-WAN [15W/0914]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 022
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Sat 19 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #030
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
CHOI-WAN (15W) rapidly breaking down as it enters unfavorable atmospheric conditions aloft...just a Category 1 Typhoon.
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: CHOI-WAN is expected to continue rapidly accelerating towards the NE to ENE-ward across the upper portion of the NW Pacific Ocean. The 2-day Short-Range Forecast shows CHOI-WAN speeding up towards the NE to ENE, weakening into a strong Tropical Storm tomorrow. It shall become an Extratropical Cyclone tomorrow evening or on Monday Sep 21.
+ Effects: CHOI-WAN's deteriorating main core remains at open seas...its southern outer bands has started to move away from Chichi Jima Island, where strong winds w/ light rains can still be expected this evening. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 250 mm can be expected along CHOI-WAN's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 400 mm near the center of CHOI-WAN or along its Eyewall. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Iwo To and Chichi Jima Island Group. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Sat September 19 2009
Location of Eye: 30.2º N Lat 143.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 355 km (192 nm) NNE of Chichi Jima
Distance 2: 685 km (370 nm) SSE of Tokyo, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 140 kph (75 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 165 kph (90 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Category 1
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 4-5 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
Central Pressure: 967 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: NE @ 46 kph (25 kts)
General Direction: NW Pacific Ocean
Size (in Diameter): 945 km (510 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 32 ft (9.7 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PST Sat Sep 19
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 06Z Sat Sep 19
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 PM Sat Sep 19
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 2-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/gparm/data/current/mtxyrpsf.gif
