TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

Tropical Storm Isang

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Thu July 16 2009
Location of Center: 17.9º N Lat 124.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 330 km (178 nm) ENE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 2: 330 km (178 nm) ESE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 3: 345 km (187 nm) NE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 4: 380 km (205 nm) ESE of Calayan Island
Distance 5: 410 km (222 nm) SE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 6: 470 km (255 nm) NNE of Gota Beach
Distance 7: 510 km (275 nm) NNE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 8: 540 km (292 nm) NE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (45 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0-3 feet [0-0.9 m]
Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: NNW @ 17 kph (09 kts)
General Direction: Extreme Northern Luzon
Size (in Diameter): 550 km (295 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 11 ft (3.3 m)
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 6 PM PST Thu July 16
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 06Z Thu July 16
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 96 hrs lead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time


Forecast Outlook: ISANG is expected to resume its NW track under the steering influence of a low-to-mid-level high pressure northeast of it. The 4-day long-range forecast shows ISANG maintaing its strength as it passes over the northern coast of Cagayan tomorrow morning...crossing Calayan, Babuyan and Batanes Group of Islands tomorrow afternoon. ISANG shall exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by early Saturday morning, July 18 and shall make landfall over Hong Kong Area on Sunday morning, July 19. Dissipation of this system is forecast along the mountainous terrain of SW China on Monday July 20.

+ Effects: ISANG's broad circulation has remained over the Philippine Sea near the east coast of Cagayan...Its western outer bands continues to spread across Northern & Central Luzon...Light to moderate to sometimes heavy rains and winds not exceeding 60 kph can be expected along these bands. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 100 mm can be expected along the storm's rain bands...with isolated accumulations of up to 150 mm near the center of ISANG and along mountain slopes of Eastern & Northern Luzon. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

+ Current SW Monsoon Intensity: STRONG >> Light to moderate to sometimes heavy widespread rains, passing squalls and light to moderate SW winds not exceeding 40 kph can be expected over the following affected areas: PALAWAN, MINDORO, WESTERN LUZON, WESTERN & NORTHERN VISAYAS, MASBATE, BICOL REGION, METRO MANILA, & SOUTHERN TAGALOG PROVINCES. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

SOURCE: Typhoon2000.com