July 10, 2009

As of 5:00 a.m

SYPNOSIS:

At 4:00 am today, the center of Tropical Depression "GORIO" was estimated based on satellite and surface data in the vicinity of Calayan Island or at 120 kms North Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan (19.3°N, 121.0°E) with maximum sustained winds of 55 kph near the center. It is forecast to move Northwest at 22 kph.

FORECAST:

Extreme Northern Luzon will experience rains with gusty winds and its coastal waters will be moderate to rough. The rest of the country will have mostly cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms becoming cloudy with widespread rains over the western sections of Central and Southern Luzon and Western Visayas which may trigger flashfloods and landslides.

Moderate to occasionally strong winds blowing from the Northwest to Southwest will prevail over the rest of Northern Luzon with moderate to occasionally rough seas. Elsewhere, winds will be light to moderate coming from the Southwest with slight to moderate seas except during thunderstorms.

EFFECTS:

05W's rain bands spreading across Extreme Northern Luzon. Moderate to heavy rains with winds & squalls plus thunderstorms can be expected along these bands. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 100 up to 200 mm can be expected along the storm's rain bands. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

CURRENT SOUTHWEST MONSOON INTENSITY:

: WEAK >> Partly Cloudy skies w/ light occasional rains & some passing thunderstorms w/ squall plus light to moderate SW winds not exceeding 35 kph can be expected over the following affected areas: WESTERN LUZON, PALAWAN, PARTS OF MINDORO-METRO MANILA-WESTERN VISAYAS. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)

CAGAYAN, CALAYAN-BABUYAN-BATANES GROUP OF ISLANDS, KALINGA, APAYAO, ABRA, ILOCOS SUR, AND ILOCOS NORTE.

Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Fri July 10 2009
Location of Center: 18.5º N Lat 121.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 30 km (16 nm) NW of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 2: 90 km (48 nm) South of Calayan Island
Distance 3: 100 km (55 nm) NNW of Tuguegarao City
Distance 4: 100 km (55 nm) ENE of Laoag City
Distance 5: 215 km (115 nm) SSW of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Depression
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 26 kph (14 kts)
General Direction: Coastal Ilocos Norte
Size (in Diameter): 300 km (160 nm) / Small
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 8 ft (2.4 m)
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 6 AM PST Fri July 10
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 18Z Thu July 10
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 96 hrs lead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near-Real Time