Typhoon NIDA (26W) still almost stationary but with a very slow drift towards the WNW

NIDA (26W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 185 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 180 kph

TYPHOON NIDA [26W/0922]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 026
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT)
Mon 30 November 2009
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #034 & SatFix
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Typhoon NIDA (26W) still almost stationary but with a very slow drift towards the WNW.

*Residents and visitors along the Iwo To and Chichi Jima Islands should closely monitor the progress of NIDA.

*Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

Current Storm Information

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Mon Nov 30 2009
Location of Eye: 19.9º N Lat 139.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 595 km (322 nm) SSW of Iwo To
Distance 2: 430 km (232 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 3: 1,760 km (950 nm) ENE of Extreme N.Luzon, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 185 kph (100 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 230 kph (125 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 250 mm [Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 3
Present Movement: WNW @ 04 kph (02 kts)
Towards: Western Pacific Ocean
Size (in Diameter): 760 km (410 nm) / Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 35 ft (10.6 m)
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 9-12 feet [2.7-3.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PST Mon Nov 30

+ Forecast Outlook: NIDA is expected to continue drifting very slowly WNW and will weaken within the next 2 days. The 3 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system just a Tropical Storm as strong upper-level winds (Vertical Wind Shear) and cold dry air from the surge of NE Monsoon (Amihan) affects the system by Thursday afternoon (2PM Dec 03: 20.4N 136.0E). NIDA will rapidly dissipate along the NE portion of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) while moving WSW slowly on Friday until Saturday (2PM Dec 04: 20.2N 135.3E...2PM Dec 05: 19.8N 134.6E). Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

+ Effects & Hazards: NIDA is not affecting any major islands at this time. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 150 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer and inner bands...with isolated amounts of 250 mm (heavy rain) near the center or EyeWall of Nida or along the Northern EyeWall. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

+ Current NE Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with passing occasional rains and squalls (subasko) can be expected along the following affected areas: EASTERN LUZON, BICOL REGION AND NORTHERN SAMAR. Light to moderate northeasterly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) can be expected on these areas.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
External Links for TY NIDA (27W)

View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp2609.gif
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

DISCUSSION:

744

wdpn31 pgtw 300300
msgid/genadmin/navmarfcstcen Pearl Harbor hi/jtwc//
subj/prognostic reasoning for typhoon 26w (Nida) warning nr 33//
rmks/
1. For meteorologists.
2. 12 hour summary and analysis.
A. Typhoon (TY) 26w (Nida), located approximately 330 nm south-
southwest of iwo to, has remained quasi-stationary (qs) over the
past six hours. Animated multispectral satellite imagery depicts
weakening convection over all quadrants with a ragged 50nm eye. TY
26w has, in fact, remained qs over the past 36 hours and is likely
weakening due to a combination of dry air entrainment (dae) and cold
water upwelling. The total precipitable water (tpw) products
indicate dry air advection just west of the system with a wedge of
dry air (25-40mm) wrapping into the northeast quadrant. A 292032z
SSMI/S image depicts eyewall erosion to the south as dry air is
being pulled into the core, and a round 50nm diameter eye. Animated
water vapor imagery continues to show good radial outflow with
enhanced poleward outflow into the midlatitude westerlies. There is
fair confidence in the current position and motion due to the
erratic slow track and large eye, however, 37 ghz microwave imagery
supports both. The current intensity of 100 knots is based on the
higher Dvorak estimates ranging from 77 to 102 knots. The 29/12z 500
mb analysis depicts a weak mid-level steering environment with TY
26w positioned between the subtropical ridge (str) to the east and
west with strong midlatitude (zonal) westerlies north of 25n. The
upper-level flow remains high zonal across Asia with no significant
mid-level short-wave troughs evident in the upstream flow (in
imagery as well). The 30/00z surface analysis depicts strong low-
level ridging entrenched north and west of TY 26w.
3. Forecast reasoning.
A. No changes to forecast philosophy.
B. Numerical guidance remains in poor agreement with two
distinct clusters; NOGAPS, GFDN, and WBAR still favor a recurvature
scenario and track the system north-northeastward to northeastward
rapidly, while JGSM, tc-laps, ukmo, ECMWF, and GFS favor a slower
westward track with dissipation. The official forecast favors the
slow westward movement with dissipation after tau 72. As the system
weakens, steering is expected to shift to the low-levels and TY 26w
is likely to track westward to southwestward under the northeasterly
flow. The dissipation scenario is based on increasing vertical wind
shear due to a combination of low-level northeasterly flow,
associated with the ridge building north of the system, and zonal
upper-level westerly flow as well as dae and cool water upwelling.
C. In the extended Taus, TY 26w will continue to weaken and
should turn southwestward and accelerate within the low-level flow.
There is still uncertainty with the timing of the dissipation and
the turn southwestward. Additionally, several models indicate that
the remnants will track cyclonically and get absorbed into a
developing storm near or northwest of Guam.//