93W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 40 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 001
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Mon 23 November 2009
Source: T2K Analysis & NOAA/JTWC SatFix
# View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009) The strong tropical disturbance (LPA) which has been meandering over the Southern Philippine Sea, near the east coast of Mindanao during the past 3 days - has been upgraded to Tropical Depression 97W (UNNAMED). This system has drifted Northwestward during the past 3 hours...may threaten the eastern coasts of Surigao Del Norte, Leyte & Samar.
*Residents and visitors along Eastern and Central Visayas should closely monitor the progress of 93W.
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
Current Storm Information
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Mon November 23 2009
Location of Center: 9.3º N Lat 127.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 235 km (128 nm) ESE of Surigao City
Distance 2: 360 km (195 nm) SE of Tacloban City
Distance 3: 290 km (157 nm) SE of Guiuan, E.Samar
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 200 mm
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TD
Present Movement: NW @ 04 kph (02 kts)
Towards: Coastal Leyte
Size (in Diameter): 250 km (135 nm) / Small
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 ft (3.0 m)
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
+ Forecast Outlook: 93W is expected to continue drifting NW-ward and slightly intensify. The 1-day Short-Range Forecast shows the system slowing down again while nearing the coast of Leyte & Surigao Del Norte. More forecast outlook will be issued soon as majority of the forecast guidance models remains poor in initializing the future track of this depression. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.
+ Effects & Hazards: 26W's organizing bands continues to dump scattered to widespread rains across Northern Mindanao including the coastal areas of Leyte and Samar Islands. Rainfall amounts of up to 200 mm (heavy rains) can be expected. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
The area of convection previously located near 7.8n
128.9e, is now located near 8.2n 128.2e, approximately 390 nm west
of Palau. Animated multispectral satellite imagery shows continued
consolidation of deep convection near a well-defined low level
circulation center (LLCC) and a 220500z amsre Aqua microwave image
shows multiple convective bands converging into the system center.
The 220035z ascat pass also reveals a symmetric LLCC with 20-knot
winds. Environmental analysis indicates the system is in an area of
minimal vertical wind shear and has divergent flow aloft. An
upstream mid-latitude trough is also starting to provide increased
poleward outflow. A Circle was used for the tropical cyclone
formation alert area to convey near-term track uncertainty due to
the system being in a dual steering environment. Maximum sustained
surface winds are estimated at 17 to 22 knots. Minimum sea level
pressure is estimated to be near 1006 mb. Given an increase in
convective consolidation and improving poleward outflow, the
potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone
within the next 24 hours is upgraded to good. See ref b (wtpn21 pgtw
221000) for further details.
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