SEVERE ALERT STAGE
Tropical Disturbance 93W (LPA)
* located over the Southern Philippine Sea or near 6.6N 129.1E...about 390 km ESE of Davao City
CURRENT INTENSITY: MAX: 15kt GUST: 20kt (28-37kph)
CURRENT PRESSURE: 1010MB
SURFACE WIND ANALYSIS: 20KT (37KPH) MSLP: 1007.5MB
CENTRAL REGION TEMP: 0C
CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP: 0C
FORECAST 12HRS: 20KT/37KPH
Discussion/Prognosis:
ABPW10 PGTW 200600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/200600Z-210600ZNOV2009//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.5N 129.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 195 NM EAST OF MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 200117Z METOP-A IMAGE DEPICTS FRAGMENTED
BANDING NORTH WRAPPING INTO THE WEST QUADRANT WITH A WEAK LLCC
SIGNATURE. A 200116Z ASCAT IMAGE SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POOR
ASSESSMENT AND SHOWS AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT UNFLAGGED
WINDS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE SPARSE WITH KOROR (NORTHEAST OF THE
LLCC) MAINTAINING 10-KNOT EASTERLY FLOW AND SLP NEAR 1007 MB. THE
OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL WITH WEAK TO MODERATE EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, 20-30 KNOT UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW AND A
WEAK, ELONGATED 850 MB VORTICITY SIGNATURE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BASED ON THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO MINDANAO AND THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
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