August 07, 2009

Typhoon MORAKOT (KIKO/09W)


As of 5:00 p.m


SYPNOSIS:

At 4:00 p.m. today, Typhoon "KIKO" was located based on satellite and surface data at 290 kms North of Basco, Batanes (23.4°N, 121.7°E) with maximum sustained winds of 140 kph near center and gustiness of up to 170 kph. It is forecast to move West Northwest at 15 kph. Meanwhile a Low Pressure Area (LPA) was estimated at 1,580 kms East of Northern Luzon (19.8°N, 139.7°E ).

FORECAST:

Extreme Northern Luzon will experience rains and gusty winds while Visayas and rest of Luzon will have cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms becoming occasional rains over the Western section. The rest of the country will be partly cloudy to cloudy with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms.

Moderate to strong winds blowing from the Southwest will prevail throughout the archipelago with moderate to rough seas.

SOURCE: PAGASA


MORAKOT (KIKO) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 175 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 145 km/hr TYPHOON MORAKOT [KIKO/09W/0908]


T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 013
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Fri 07 August 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #014
# View:


Advisory Archives (2004-2009) Typhoon MORAKOT (KIKO) has continued moving West during the past 3 hours...nears the coast of Eastern Taiwan...widespread rains and high winds expected across much of Taiwan...Landfall likely to the south of Hualien City before or after sunset today.

*Residents and visitors along Taiwan & Southeastern & Eastern China should closely monitor the progress of MORAKOT.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: MORAKOT is expected to continue tracking west for the next 12 hours and intensify a little bit - reaching Category 2 status w/ 165-kph winds as it reaches the East coast of Taiwan this afternoon. The 3-day Medium-Range Forecast shows the system turning abruptly WNW-ward. The core (eye & eyewall) shall make landfall to the south Hualien, Taiwan before or after sunset and cross Central or Northern Taiwan passing close to the south of Metro Taipei around 6 AM tomorrow. MORAKOT is forecast to weaken after crossing the moountains of Taiwan and shall be off Taiwan Strait tomorrow afternoon. MORAKOT shall make its 2nd and final landfall over Southeastern China by early Sunday morning, Aug 9 - passing south or close to Fuzhou City (China). This typhoon shall rapidly dissipate on Sunday Aug 9 until Monday Aug 10 while hovering along the mountainous terrain of mainland China.

+ Effects: MORAKOT's large circulation continues to track westward with the emergence of an eye while approaching the east coast of Taiwan. The core (eye & eyewall) is now along the east coast of Taiwan as it prepares to make landfall. The storm's inner (rain) bands now spreading across much of Taiwan and Yaeyama Islands...with its outer (feeder) bands over coastal SE China and Taiwan Strait and the northernmost Philippine Islands of Batanes, Babuyan and Calayan. Violent winds of 60-100 kph w/ moderate to slightly heavy rains can be expected along its inner bands....and moderate to strong winds of 30-60 kph w/ occasional rains, squalls can be expected along the outer bands. Deteriorating weather conditions is likely over the whole of Taiwan late this afternoon until night time as the typhoon crosses the island nation. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 100 up to 300 mm can be expected along the storm's inner and outer bands...with isolated accumulations of up to 500 mm near the center of MORAKOT and along mountain slopes on where the core is expected to pass. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Taiwan and Yaeyama Islands today. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Eastern & SE China.

+ Current SW Monsoon Intensity: STRONG >> Moderate to strong southwesterly winds not in excess of 65 kph with passing occasional showers or rains can be expected along the following affected areas: METRO MANILA, WESTERN LUZON, VISAYAS, MINDORO, AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN LUZON AND WESTERN BICOL. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

(1) Another strong Tropical Disturbance 90W (LPA) has been spotted forming northwest of Northern Mariana Islands and is now the subject of a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA) per JTWC analysis...currently located near lat 19.6N lon 140.6E...or about 585 km East of P.A.R. or 1,945 km East of Basco, Batanes...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 35 kph...drifting WNW while embedded within the eastern part of the active and broad Monsoon Trough (ITCZ).

This system is likely to become a Significant Tropical Cyclone within the next 06 to 24 hours.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Fri August 07 2009
Location of Eye: 23.5º N Lat 122.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 75 km (40 nm) SE of Hualien, Taiwan
Distance 2: 175 km (95 nm) SSE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 3: 335 km (180 nm) North of Basco, Batanes
Distance 4: 405 km (220 nm) SE of Fuzhou, China
Distance 5: 420 km (227 nm) ESE of Xiamen, China
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 150 kph (80 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 185 kph (100 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Category 1
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 4-5 feet [1.2-1.7 meters]
Central Pressure: 963 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 22 kph (12 kts)
General Direction: Taiwan-SE China Area
Size (in Diameter): 1,295 km (700 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 28 ft (8.5 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PST Fri Aug 07
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 00Z Fri Aug 07
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 11 AM Fri Aug 07
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 72 hrs lead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning
Now In Effect: NORTHERN CAGAYAN, APAYAO, ILOCOS NORTE & BATANES-BABUYAN-CALAYAN GROUP OF ISLANDS.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge that could reach a high of 1 to 3 feet.