SYPNOSIS:
At 4:00 a.m. today, Typhoon "KIKO" (MORAKOT) was estimated based on satellite and surface data at 690 kms East Northeast of Basco, Batanes (23.2°N, 129.0°E) with maximum sustained winds of 130 kph near center and gustiness of up to 160 kph. It is forecast to move West Northwest at 19 kph. Southwest monsoon affecting Luzon and Visayas.
FORECAST:
Luzon and Western Visayas will experience monsoon rains while the rest of Visayas will have cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms. The rest of the country will be partly cloudy to cloudy with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms.
Moderate to strong winds blowing from the Southwest will prevail throughout the archipelago with moderate to rough seas.
SOURCE: PAGASA
MORAKOT (KIKO) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Thu 06 August 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #009
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
*Residents and visitors along Ryukyu Islands, Taiwan & Eastern China should closely monitor the progress of MORAKOT.
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: MORAKOT's forecast has changed more to the west - due to the strengthening high pressure steering ridge north of it...now threatens Northern Taiwan including Metro Taipei. The 4-day Medium-Range Forecast shows the system reaching Category 4 status w/ possible strength of 215 kph before hitting Northern Taiwan early tomorrow eveing (approx 7PM). It shall first pass over Yaeyama Islands (located east of Northern Taiwan) early tomorrow (approx 2AM). The core (eye & eyewall) shall pass very close or over Taipei around midnight on Saturday Aug 8 before moving into Taiwan Strait and making its 2nd landfall over Southeastern China by early Sunday morning, Aug 9...shall rapidly dissipate on Monday Aug 9.
+ Effects: MORAKOT's large circulation continues to track westward with the development of a cloud-filled eye and eyewall as it traverses the warm waters of the Northernmost Philippine Sea. The storm's outer (feeder) bands has started to spread across Okinawa-Ryukyu-Yaeyama Islands and Taiwan. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 100 up to 300 mm can be expected along the storm's inner and outer bands...with isolated accumulations of up to 500 mm near the center of MORAKOT. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Okinawa-Ryukyu-Yaeyama Islands and Eastern Taiwan today. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Eastern & SE China.
+ Current SW Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Moderate to slightly strong southwesterly winds not in excess of 50 kph with passing occasional showers or rains can be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN VISAYAS, MINDORO, AND PARTS OF WESTERN & SOUTHERN LUZON-METRO MANILA-BICOL REGION.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Location of Eye: 23.2º N Lat 128.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 365 km (197 nm) South of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 2: 700 km (378 nm) ESE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 3: 715 km (387 nm) NE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 4: 955 km (515 nm) ESE of Fuzhou, China
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 150 kph (80 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 185 kph (100 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Category 1
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 4-5 feet [1.2-1.7 meters]
Central Pressure: 963 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 26 kph (14 kts)
General Direction: Yaeyama-Northern Taiwan Area
Size (in Diameter): 1,200 km (650 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 21 ft (6.4 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PST Thu Aug 06
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 18Z Wed Aug 05
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 5 AM Thu Aug 06
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 96 hrs lead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
GONI (JOLINA) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 35 km/hr
6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Thu 06 August 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JMA WARNING
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
*Residents and visitors along Southern China should closely monitor the progress of GONI (JOLINA).
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: GONI is expected to drift WNW or Westward across Western Guangdong today and dissipate.
+ Effects: GONI's shrinking circulation (370 km across) continues to affect portions of Western Guangdong (China). Rainfall accumulations of up to 200-400 mm can be expected along its rain bands particularly along Western Guangdong, Leizhou Peninsula and Hainan Island. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of up to 3 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Western Guangdong. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of SW China and Hainan Island, including the monsoon affected areas.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Location of Center: 22.2º N Lat 111.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 205 km (110 nm) West of Macau
Distance 2: 280 km (150 nm) West of Hong Kong
Distance 3: 145 km (78 nm) NE of Zhanjiang, China
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0-3 feet [0-0.9 m]
Central Pressure: 990 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WNW @ 07 kph (04 kts)
General Direction: Western Guangdong
Size (in Diameter): 370 km (200 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 ft (3.0 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PST Thu Aug 06
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 AM Thu Aug 06
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
No comments:
Post a Comment